Multivariate drought characteristics using trivariate Gaussian and Student t copulas

This study aims to investigate the changing properties of drought events in Weihe River basin, China, by modeling the multivariate joint distribution of drought duration, severity and peak using trivariate Gaussian and Student t copulas. Monthly precipitations of Xi'an gauge are used to illustrate the meta‐elliptical copula‐based methodology for a single‐station application. Gaussian and Student t copulas are found to produce a better fit comparing with other six symmetrical and asymmetrical Archimedean copulas, and, checked by the goodness‐of‐fit tests based on a modified bootstrap version of Rosenblatt's transformation, both of them are acceptable to model the multivariate joint distribution of drought variables. Gaussian copula, the best fitting, is employed to construct the dependence structures of positively associated drought variables so as to obtain the multivariate joint and conditional probabilities of droughts. A Kendall's return period (KRP) introduced by Salvadori and De Michele (2010) is then adopted to assess the multivariate recurrent properties of drought events, and its spatial distributions indicate that prolonged droughts are likely to break out with rather short recurrence intervals in the whole region, while drought status in the southeast seems to be severer than the northwest. The study is of some merits in terms of multivariate drought modeling using a preferable copula‐based method, the results of which could serve as a reference for regional drought defense and water resources management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

灰色理论和回归分析组合模型在变形分析中的应用

从GM(1,1)和多元回归分析模型出发,建立了灰色理论和回归分析组合模型。经过实验检验可知,灰色理论和回归分析组合模型有着良好的拟合预测能力,是一种有效的变形分析模型。     

Morphometric variation in the cutlassfish Trichiurus lepturus on the Kenyan coast: implications for stock identification and management

Morphometric variation was used to study population structure of the cutlassfish Trichiurus lepturus on the Kenyan coast. In all, 16 morphometric measurements taken from 193 individuals from six sites were subjected to multivariate statistical analysis in order to determine possible stock differentiation. Multivariate analysis of variance indicated significant differences in the means of a combination of the morphometric characters among the sites, and discriminant function analysis by groups showed the presence of phenotypically distinct populations on the south and north coasts of Kenya. A classification tree analysis of morphometric characters validated the distinct groups and indicated certain characters to be useful for classifying specimens to source sites. The likely presence of distinct north and south stocks of T. lepturus on the Kenyan coast observed in our study will require validation by other methods, but indicates the potential need for spatially explicit models for managing fish populations on a large spatial scale.     

论油气资源的多元勘探

油气资源勘探的常规方案大致是普查—详查—细测、物探—地质—钻井等。本研究团队在前人研究与应用基础上,经过多年的资源勘探实践,逐步形成了油气资源的多元勘探理论。该理论体系是由受控区域构造不同地质时代构造运动叠合作用下的多构造属性单元、不同油气属性特征的目标单元、不同物源属性的多学科多尺度地球物理勘探单元,以及不同作用的地球物理方法技术单元等所组构。本文以松辽盆地滨北地区、佳伊断裂上的汤伊地堑带为例论述了该勘探理论。松辽盆地自古生代至中新生代受控于古亚洲洋、蒙古—鄂霍茨克洋、西太平洋构造域的顺时针以挤压应力场为主的作用,同时该应力场作用具有一定的叠合表现。由区域地球物理、精细地球物理、石油地质、岩石物理、计算地球物理等不同学科的联合研究,对深层、探查程度低的油气新层系新领域目标进行了多尺度方法技术探查,最终提出目标区的油气性新认识。上述勘探新理论的建立延展了油气勘探思路,补充了已有的勘探方案,同时这一勘探理论也有益于固体矿产资源的探查。     

Sampling effort required to recover the main gradients in marine benthic species composition

Marine benthic surveys and monitoring programs may have several goals. When the aim of such studies is to reveal and describe gradients in species composition, the gain in ecological insight achieved by the study depends on how well the spatial variability of species’ occurrence and abundance within the study area is covered by the sampling design. The common practice in such programs is to collect four or five grab samples from each visited site to capture the site's species composition. The rationale for this practice is based on the aim of capturing a large proportion of species at a specific site (i.e. point). We argue that this practice has been established without taking Iterative approaches into account, such as decreasing the sampling effort at each site and instead increase the number of sites visited. The collection and processing of data from marine sediment ecosystems are time‐consuming and, thus, expensive. Therefore, finding the optimal trade‐off between the number of sites visited and the number of samples per site is important. We examined this trade‐off by exploring how reduction of sampling effort per site affects the stability and recovery of gradients in species composition of marine benthic macrofauna. Our full data set consisted of four grab samples from each of 28 sites from the inner part of the Oslofjord, SE Norway. Procrustes analysis and calculation of Kendall's rank correlation coefficients showed that the main gradient in species composition extracted by detrended correspondence analysis of data sets with reduced per‐site sampling effort closely resembled the main gradient extracted for the full data set. Our results therefore suggest that marine benthic surveys that aim to identify the main gradient structure of species composition and relate this structure to main environmental complex gradients are likely to benefit from reducing the sampling effort at each site and, instead, increasing the number of visited sites. We argue that coverage of both the variation in species composition and the environment in the study area will then be improved. Monitoring programs with other aims than to identify the main gradients in species composition may also benefit from the adoption of a many‐sites, one‐sample sampling strategy. This may be particularly true if additional sampled sites are based on a stratified sampling strategy that ensures that the spatial variability in the study area is accounted for.     

长岛周边海域浮游植物分布及其环境影响因素

2013年春季和夏季对长岛周边海域进行了环境与生物综合调查,利用多元统计分析对长岛周边海域浮游植物分布及其影响因素进行分析。根据水环境分析结果对调查海域进行聚类分析,结果表明,春季(M1、M2)与夏季(A1、A2)均可分为两大类。M1与A2为高温高营养盐区,M2与A1为低温低营养盐区。调查期间,共发现69种浮游植物。硅藻为两季主要浮游植物,春季浮游植物细胞丰度远大于夏季。春季共发现1种明显的优势种,为柔弱几内亚藻(Guinardia delicatula(Cleve)Hasle)。夏季共发现5种优势种,分别为具槽帕拉藻(Paralia sulcata)、裸甲藻(Gymnodinium sp.)、圆筛藻(Coscinodiscus sp.)、离心列海链藻(Thalassiosira eccentrica)与具齿原甲藻(Prorocentrum dentatum)。影响春季浮游植物分布的最佳解释变量组合为温度(WT)、透明度(SD)、风速(WS)和溶解总碳(DTC)组合,其中,温度影响最显著(极显著负相关);夏季则为盐度(S)、活性磷酸盐(SRP)和N/Si组合,其中活性磷酸盐影响最大(显著负相关)。     

滇中荒田铅锌矿床Rb-Sr同位素年代学与C-O-S-Pb同位素地球化学特征

滇中荒田铅锌矿床赋存于下二叠统碳酸盐岩与上二叠统峨眉山玄武岩接触界面上,矿体主要呈似层状、透镜状产出。矿石矿物组合以闪锌矿、方铅矿为主,脉石矿物以石英、方解石、白云石为主。热液方解石C、O同位素组成表明荒田铅锌矿床成矿流体中CO_2的碳具有多元性,主要来源于幔源与海相碳酸盐岩的混合碳;硫化物硫同位素组成表明荒田铅锌矿床硫以岩浆硫为主,可能混有其他硫源(可能包括地层硫酸盐),铅同位素表明赋矿围岩、玄武岩和燕山期花岗岩均有可能为成矿提供了成矿物质,是多源混合后的产物;闪锌矿Rb-Sr同位素等时线年龄为(83.2±3.4)Ma,指示荒田铅锌矿床形成于晚燕山期,荒田铅锌矿床成矿动力学背景可能与右江褶皱带在中生代末期发生了大规模的岩石圈伸展有关。而晚二叠世海相喷发火山岩对矿区铅锌矿床的形成起了重要的盖层、赋矿层及矿化作用。综上,荒田铅锌矿床成矿流体中的不同组分来源不同,矿床类型为沉积-改造型矿床。     

Application of L‐moments and Bayesian inference for low‐flow regionalization in Sefidroud basin,Iran

Reliable estimation of low flows at ungauged catchments is one of the major challenges in water‐resources planning and management. This study aims at providing at‐site and ungauged sites low‐flow frequency analysis using regionalization approach. A two‐stage delineating homogeneous region is proposed in this study. Clustering sites with similar low‐flow L‐moment ratios is initially conducted, and L‐moment‐based discordancy and heterogeneity measures are then used to detect unusual sites. Based on the goodness‐of‐fit test statistic, the best‐fit regional model is identified in each hydrologically homogeneous region. The relationship between mean annual 7‐day minimum flow and hydro‐geomorphic characteristics is also constructed in each homogeneous region associated with the derived regional model for estimating various low‐flow quantiles at ungauged sites. Uncertainty analysis of model parameters and low‐flow estimations is carried out using the Bayesian inference. Applied in Sefidroud basin located in northwestern Iran, two hydrologically homogeneous regions are identified, i.e. the east and west regions. The best‐fit regional model for the east and west regions are generalized logistic and Pearson type III distributions, respectively. The results show that the proposed approach provides reasonably good accuracy for at‐site as well as ungauged‐site frequency analysis. Besides, interval estimations for model parameters and low flows provide uncertainty information, and the results indicate that Bayesian confidence intervals are significantly reduced when comparing with the outcomes of conventional t‐distribution method. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using hydrochemical tracers to assess impacts of unsewered urban catchments on hydrochemistry and nutrients in groundwater

We applied graphical methods and multivariate statistics to understand impacts of an unsewered slum catchment on nutrients and hydrochemistry of groundwater in Kampala, Uganda. Data were collected from 56 springs (groundwater), 22 surface water sites and 13 rain samples. Groundwater was acidic and dominated by Na, Cl and NO₃. These ions were strongly correlated, indicating pollution originating from wastewater infiltration from on‐site sanitation systems. Results also showed that rain, which was acidic, impacted on groundwater chemistry. Using Q‐mode hierarchical cluster analysis, we identified three distinct water quality groups. The first group had springs dominated by Ca‐Cl‐NO₃, low values of electrical conductivity (EC), pH and cations, and relatively high NO₃ values. These springs were shown to have originated from the acidic rains because their chemistry closely corresponded to ion concentrations that would occur from rainfall recharge, which was around 3.3 times concentrated by evaporation. The second group had springs dominated by Na‐K‐Cl‐NO₃ and Ca‐Cl‐NO₃, low pH but with higher values of EC, NO₃ and cations. We interpreted these as groundwater affected by both acid rain and infiltration of wastewater from urban areas. The third group had the highest EC values (average of 688 μS/cm), low pH and very high concentrations of NO₃ (average of 2.15 mmol/l) and cations. Since these springs were all located in slum areas, we interpreted them as groundwater affected by infiltration of wastewater from poorly sanitized slums areas. Surface water was slightly reducing and eutrophic because of wastewater effluents, but the contribution of groundwater to nutrients in surface water was minimal because o‐PO₄ was absent, whereas NO₃ was lost by denitification. Our findings suggest that groundwater chemistry in the catchment is strongly influenced by anthropogenic inputs derived from nitrogen‐containing rains and domestic wastewater. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.