Effect of spatial variation characteristics on contouring of design storm depth

The ordinary kriging method, a geostatistical interpolation technique, was applied for developing contour maps of design storm depth in northern Taiwan using intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) data. Results of variogram modelling on design storm depths indicate that the design storms can be categorized into two distinct storm types: (i) storms of short duration and high spatial variation and (ii) storms of long duration and less spatial variation. For storms of the first category, the influence range of rainfall depth decreases when the recurrence interval increases, owing to the increasing degree of their spatial independence. However, for storms of the second category, the influence range of rainfall depth does not change significantly and has an average of approximately 72 km. For very extreme events, such as events of short duration and long recurrence interval, we do not recommend usage of the established design storm contours, because most of the interstation distances exceed the influence ranges. Our study concludes that the influence range of the design storm depth is dependent on the design duration and recurrence interval and is a key factor in developing design storm contours. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Principal components in active galactic nuclei variability data and the estimation of the flux contributions from different components

It has been found that the near-infrared flux variations of Seyfert galaxies satisfy relations of the form   F_i ≈α _{i j} +β _{i j} F_j   , where F_i , F_j are the fluxes in filters i and j ; and  α _{i , j} , β _{i , j}   are constants. These relations have been used to estimate the constant contributions of the non-variable underlying galaxies. The paper attempts a formal treatment of the estimation procedure, allowing for the possible presence of a third component, namely non-variable hot dust. In an analysis of a sample of 38 Seyfert galaxies, inclusion of the hot dust component improves the model fit in approximately half the cases. All derived dust temperatures are below 300 K, in the range 540–860 K or above 1300 K. A noteworthy feature is the estimation of confidence intervals for the component contributions: this is achieved by bootstrapping. It is also pointed out that the model implies that such data could be fruitfully analysed in terms of principal components.     

Damage identification method using harmonic excitation force considering both modelling and measurement errors

A method of structural damage identification using harmonic excitation force is presented. It considers the effects of both measurement and modelling errors in the baseline finite element model. Damage that accompanies changes in structural parameters can be estimated for a damaged structure from the change between measured vibration responses and ones calculated from the analytical model of the intact structure. In practice, modelling errors exist in the analytical model due to material and geometric uncertainties and a reduction in the degrees of freedom as well as measurement errors, making identification difficult. To surmount these problems, bootstrap hypothesis testing, which enables statistical judgment without information about these errors, was introduced. The method was validated by numerical simulation using a three‐dimensional frame structure and real vibration data for a three‐storey steel frame structure. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

EMERGY ANALYSIS OF GRAIN PRODUCTION SYSTEM IN JIANGSU AND SHAANXI PROVINCE

1INTRODUCTIONGrain production has always been top-priority issue con-cerned by government and people (MA etal., 2002). Af-ter China put household contract responsibility system in force, its domestic issue of grain was basically settled in the mid 1980s (MA and XU, 1999). However, in the days when idea of sustainable development is broadly accepted, efficiency and sustainability of grain produc-tion are now in question, which have prompted interest in reviewing grain production patterns…     

概率赋范空间的S-凸和K-凸

文献[1][2]认为M－PN空间是局部凸的。通过定理说明这个结论对t-模T（a,b)≥min(a,b)时成立。又通过反例表明，当t-模型T（a,b)=max(a b-1,0）时无论邻域Nθ（ε，λ）概率有界还是概率半有界结论均不成立。还讨论了Takahashi凸性并对S－凸和K－凸作了比较。     

Automatic Determination of Stellar Atmospheric Parameters Using Neural Networks and Instance-Based Machine Learning

In this article we show how machine learning methods can beeffectively applied to the problem of automatically predictingstellar atmospheric parameters from spectral information, a veryimportant problem in stellar astronomy. We apply feedforwardneural networks, Kohonen's self-organizing maps andlocally-weighted regression to predict the stellar atmosphericparameters effective temperature, surface gravity and metallicityfrom spectral indices. Our experimental results show that thethree methods are capable of predicting the parameters with verygood accuracy. Locally weighted regression gives slightly betterresults than the other methods using the original dataset asinput, while self-organizing maps outperform the other methods when significant amounts of noise are added. We also implemented a heterogeneous ensemble of predictors, combining the results given by the three algorithms. This ensemble yields better results than any of the three algorithms alone, using both the original and the noisy data.     

富氏谱分析法模拟地壳垂直运动的地学依据及其策应力模型

应用地壳波浪与镶嵌构造学说对富氏谱分析法提取地壳垂直形变信息的科学性做了地质学意义上的阐释 ,并提出了根据多期形变资料提取特定波段上构造策应力的数学模型     

流动VLBI站氢原子钟的研制与性能测试

氢脉泽是射电天文所必需的频率标准.文中对为流动vLBI站研制的新一代氢脉泽的物理结构特点进行了讨论，包括对腔泡结构、磁屏蔽、原子束光学系统等.同时性能测试表明在80秒到1天之间频率稳定度优于1×10     

PROPAGATION OF 30—60 DAY LOW FREQUENCY OSCILLATIONS AND THEIR INFLUENCE UPON THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES JET STREAM DURING NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER

Based on daily ECMWF gridpoint data of two winters during 1981—1983 including an ENSOyear,propagation of low frequency oscillations(LFO)during Northern Hemisphere winters andtheir influences upon 30—60 day oscillations of the subtropical jet stream are studied with the sta-tistical methods as complex empirical orthogonal function(CEOF)and so on.Results show that inthe winter of a normal year(1981—1982),30—60 day oscillations in the subtropical zone aremainly in the northern and southern flanks of exit region of jet stream.In the ENSO year(1982—1983),they are mainly in the vicinity of entrance and exit regions of jet stream.Intraseasonalchanges of subtropical jet stream manifested themselves as latitudinal fluctuation or longitudinalprogression or regression of about 40 day period.There are marked differences between propagat-ing passages of low frequency modes responsible for changes of subtropical jet stream in the normalyear(1981—1982)and in the ENSO year(1982—1983).Changes of oscillation amplitude showobvious phases.In general,the one in late winter is stronger than that in early winter,strongestone occurs in February.     

Particle-mesh simulations of the Lyα forest

We have analysed short-exposure high-resolution images obtained on the William Herschel Telescope (WHT), Big Telescope Azimuthal (BTA) and CanadaFranceHawaii Telescope (CFHT) in order to investigate mechanical vibrations that are capable of reducing the high angular resolution allowed by speckle-interferometric methods. After filtering the photon noise we have computed power spectra of the image centres of gravity. In these spectra we have found vibration features that differ from one telescope to another and that vary in particular with the zenith angle. In the case of the WHT we discuss these results in terms of possible causes and in terms of degradation of the transfer function. We present some means to improve the data.