气候系统预测:基础创新和集成应用

随着全球变暖,极端天气气候事件增强,天气气候灾害造成的损失也愈发严重。当前气候预测的准确性远远不能满足社会需要,气候系统预测理论和方法面临着众多挑战性问题。为提档气候预测科学水平和准确率,由南京信息工程大学和中山大学承担的“气候系统预测研究中心”获得国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目支持(2021年1月—2025年12月)。在该项目执行的前三年,项目团队开展了大量深入系统的研究,并取得了若干重要进展:1)揭示了气候系统的若干关键变化、驱动力和机制;2)剖析了海-陆-冰-气相互作用对我国重大极端气候事件的影响;3)在气候系统数值模式研发和预测系统集成方面取得重要进展;4)发展了延伸期-S2S-年代际的气候系统预测理论和方法。本文对这些进展作了扼要介绍,并针对气候与环境变化归因、古今气候环境研究融合、跨时空气候系统变异和极端气候、人工智能与气候科学、年代际预测和风险应对体系等关键科学问题做了展望。     

卫星导航系统定位精度评估

对用户等效距离误差结合精度衰减因子（DOP）值的精度评估方法进行了阐述,提出根据单站DOP和全球DOP进行系统定位精度评估的两种方法,仿真证明,两种方法评估结果相当。     

MASNUM海浪数值模式业务化预报与检验

介绍了MASNUM(Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling)海浪数值预报系统,并利用全球和西北太平洋的Jason-1卫星数据和NDBC浮标数据中的海浪波高观测,对该预报系统进行了自2007年8月1日-2007年12月31日5个月的24,48和72 h预报结果的比较检验.模式校验结果表明,有效波高预报与观测的绝均差在0.5 m左右,从夏季到冬季,预报精度不断提高,与风场冬季预报精度较高吻合.     

时间滞后变结构控制系统的研究新进展

详细地论述了时间滞后变结构控制系统的有关概念、特点和研究历史,研究历史从初级阶段、中级阶段、高级阶段、崭新阶段进行了描述;总结了到目前为止对该系统的若干研究进展;指出了有关时间滞后变结构控制系统的几个新的研究方向。     

The study on a new technology of waterway information system

It is a lot limitations to survey and design waterway by the CAD technique,due to timely variation of hydrology and ecology in the complicated estuary area,such as Changjing River estuary.In this paper,the advantages of GIS technique is applied to manage and process the multi kind,multi scale and multi time hydrographic parameters,including water depth,current velocity,tidal,waves,wind speed,temperature and salinity etc.,also to deal with different projection,different scale charts.Meanwhile,in the paper,combination techniques of GIS and CAD has been developed for unification of the charts for efficient management,two-way automatic carts conversion between GIS and CAD,automatic cutting and assemble of a number of Charts,flight path of the projection of spatial data and coordinate transformation.This new technique has been applied to survey and design waterway of Changing River estuary.The result shows that the combination technology of GIS and CAD has application potentiality in the waterway survey and design.     

长江口外陆架区埋藏古河道研究

大量高分辨率单道地震和浅地层剖面资料显示长江口外的广大海域分布着大量埋藏古河道,据区域浅层地质特征及地震相特征,可把研究区埋藏古河道断面划分为对称、不对称和复式三种类型;河道内充填的沉积物复杂多样;古河道主要存在于晚更新世晚期沉积层中。60个古河道断面串联成长180km的古长江河系以及长64km的古舟山河和长近100km的古钱塘江河两条支流河道系。长江古河道宽深比较大,盛冰期时深切81~109m,河底纵比降为0.82×10-4,平均古流量约为535.24m3/s,最大断面的古流量为20433.72m3/s。按比降-河宽法判别,当时古长江河道为辫状分汊河型。     

莺歌海盆地超压体系的成因及与油气的关系

莺歌海盆地独特的地质进程形成多套泥源层,泥源岩的压实与排液不均衡导致盆地内存在大规模的超压体系,大量的生烃及水热增压使盆地内超压进一步加剧。底辟作用将超压传递至浅层,使超压体系的分布在不同深度和不同构造带中的差异均较大。在中央底辟带,由于泥-流体底辟活动极强,突破的地层多,超压顶面埋深很浅;超压的释放不仅仅是孔隙流体的逸散,更重要的是烃源(主要是泥源层)所生成的油和气作为热流体的一部分,伴随热流体向上突破、运移到浅部分异、逸散和聚集形成气藏。     

西秦岭断裂构造系统基本特征及其对地质灾害的控制 作用

通过对青藏高原东北缘西秦岭地区断裂构造系统的特征及与滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害关系的分析研究,探讨了断裂构造系统对滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害的形成和分布的控制作用。认为虽然滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害是内外动力地质作用复杂的联合作用的结果,但断裂构造系统及其活动性对滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害形成具有关键性的作用,这种作用方式有直接和间接之分。西秦岭地区典型的滑坡、泥石流等的形成大多与断裂构造及其活动密切相关,主要表现在:(1)断裂构造发育的区域一般是滑坡、泥石流高发区;(2)断裂带活动为滑坡和泥石流的发生提供了物源和结构条件;(3)断裂的地震活动是诱发滑坡的关键因素;(4)断裂带的长期活动形成的构造破碎带和地形高差易于为流水的侵蚀而形成泥石流沟和陡坡地形。因此在对滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害研究中,不应孤立的认识单个滑坡、泥石流的形成与发展,而应把其放在区域地质环境演化中去认识,尤其是把区域断层格架、断层带结构和断层活动性研究作为地质灾害形成与发展的关键影响因素深入研究,从而为科学认识崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害的形成过程、制定科学的灾害的防御和治理方案提供科学依据。     

煤矿井下自动化钻探技术概况与智能化发展前瞻

针对煤矿井下钻场人员需求大、安全隐患多、一人操作难以同时控制钻机动作并从全局视角知悉钻机运行状态等问题,引入了数字孪生技术,设计开发了钻机远程服务平台。该平台系统以ZDY25000LDK钻机为载体,融合了钻机远程控制系统、数字孪生模型和参数监测系统3方面技术,通过检测与执行层、数据传输层和远程集控层实现钻机远程控制、钻机运行全生命周期映射与参数监测。钻机远程控制系统实现了实时远距离控制钻机,数字孪生模型能够映射钻机各运动部件的运动状态,并能通过仿真实验为钻探施工提供先验参考,参数监测系统实现了对钻机状态参数和钻进参数的实时监测。基于该钻机远程服务平台,进行了平台的功能性和实时性验证。试验结果表明：钻机远程服务平台能够实现钻机远程控制,并从全局视角上映射和监测钻机运行状态和参数,通过数字孪生体仿真,得出钻机上扣过程中动力头回转速度和给进速度的最优比值为4.28,与实际上扣情况相符。平台操作方便、实时性高、可靠性好、人机交互友好,为煤矿井下钻探工作的减人增效和智能化升级提供了解决方案。

     

On the Dynamics of Dust Grains in a Hierarchical Environment

Most main sequence stars are binaries or higher multiplicity Systems and it appears that at birth most stars have circumstellar disks. It is commonly accepted that planetary systems arise from the material of these disks; consequently, binary and multiple systems may have a main role in planet formation. In this paper, we study the stage of planetary formation during which the particulate material is still dispersed as centimetre-to-metre sized primordial aggregates. We investigate the response of the particles, in a protoplanetary disk with radius R_D = 100 AU around a solar-like star, to the gravitational field of bound perturbing companions in a moderately wide (300–1600 AU) orbit. For this purpose, we have carried out a series of simulations of coplanar hierarchical configurations using a direct integration code that models gravitational and viscous forces. The massive protoplanetary disk is around one of the components of the binary. The evolution in time of the dust sub-disk depends mainly on the nature (prograde or retrograde) of the relative revolution of the stellar companion, and on the temperature and mass of the circumstellar disk. Our results show that for binary companions near the limit of tidal truncation of the disk, the perturbation leads to an enhanced accretion rate onto the primary, decreasing the lifetime of the particles in the protoplanetary disk with respect to the case of a single star. As a consequence of an enhanced accretion rate the mass of the disk decreases faster, which leads to a longer resultant lifetime for particles in the disk. On the other hand, binary companions may induce tidal arms in the dust phase of protoplanetary disks. Spiral perturbations with m = 1 may increase in a factor 10 or more the dust surface density in the neighbourhood of the arm, facilitating the growth of the particles. Moreover, in a massive disk (0.01M⊙) the survival time of particles is significantly shorter than in a less massive nebula (0.001M⊙) and the temperature of the disk severely influences the spiral-in time of particles. The rapid evolution of the dust component found in post T Tauri stars can be explained as a result of their binary nature. Binarity may also influence the evolution of circumpulsar disks. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.