CLIMATIC ANALYSIS OF IMPACTS OF THE TROPICAL CONVECTION IN WESTERN PACIFIC ON WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH’S SHORT-TERM SCALES DURING BOREAL SUMMER*

Based on the multi-year average NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and NOAA's OLR data,the climatic characteristics of the tropical convection in tropical western Pacific and Indian Oceans as well as its relationship with western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is shown as follows:on short-term scales,the tropical convection that has significant influence on western Pacific high's latitudinal movement is located in the area of the South China Sea to the Philippines,which is the 2-day precursor prior to WPSH's latitudinal fluctuation,that is,WPSH is shifting to north 2 days after the tropical convection becomes more active,and vice versa.Moreover,the tropical convection has less effect on WPSH's longitudinal movement.     

Evolution mechanism of the western Pacific subtropical high

Ever since Charney et al.[1] studied the multiple equilibrium states in atmosphere with highly truncated spectral method in 1979, many Chinese researchers, such as Li Maicun et al. (1983)[2], Liu Chongjian et al. (1983)[3], Miu Jinhai et al. (1985)[4] and…     

A methodology to estimate renewal time scales in estuaries: the Tagus Estuary case

High-resolution hydrodynamic models are a common tool to simulate water dynamics in estuaries. Results from these models are, however, difficult to interpret without the aid of additional parameters to integrate the information. In this paper a methodology to understand the transport patterns in the Tagus Estuary is proposed. It is based on the computation of two renewal time scales: residence time and integrated water fraction. This last parameter is used to build a dependency matrix that gives the integrated influence of each region of the estuary at a selected point. The parameters are computed using a Lagrangian transport model coupled to the hydrodynamic model. Results show that Tagus Estuary has two different types of regions: the central part of the estuary, with low renewal efficiency, and three regions with higher renewal efficiency. Renewal mechanisms are, however, different for each region as shown by the dependency matrix. Comparison of renewal time scales with results from a water-quality model revealed that residence time is not a limiting parameter for primary production in the Tagus Estuary.Responsible Editor: Hans Burchard     

基于改进的Elman神经网络的中长期径流预报

径流中长期预报长期以来一直都是人们关注的热点研究问题。现行的径流预报方法很多,传统的有时间序列法,多元回归分析法等,这些方法虽然简单易用,但是如果预报对象提供的样本容量偏小或者因子选择不够合理,都会造成预报精度偏差过大,难于有效的指导工程应用。鉴于此,本文提出一种改进的采用局部回归的Elman神经网络方法。并应用到凤滩水库优化调度的径流预报中。结果表明,与回归分析法、BP网络相比较,该方法不仅提高了算法的效率,而且提高了预报的精度,在径流预报中具有有效性和优越性。     

近50年汾河上中游流域径流对气候变化的响应分析

以汾河上中游干流水文站近50年的气象水文资料为基础,采用多元回归及敏感性分析方法,对径流、降水和气温三者之间变化规律以及区域水文对气候变化的响应进行了定量分析,结果表明气候变暖导致了蒸发的加剧,并一定程度上造成了汾河干流径流量的减少。预估暖干气候条件下引发干旱灾害的可能性将增强。     

Statistics of Scalar Fields in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Based on Large-Eddy Simulations. Part II: Forced Convection

Forced convection in a quasi-steady atmospheric boundary layer is investigated based on a large-eddy simulation (LES) model. The performed simulations show that in the upper portion of the mixed layer the dimensionless (in terms of mixed layer scales) vertical gradients of temperature, humidity, and wind velocity depend on the dimensionless height z/z _i and the Reech number Rn. The peak values of variances and covariances at the top of the mixed layer, scaled in terms of the interfacial scales, are functions of the interfacial Richardson number Ri. As a result expressions for the entrainment rates, in the case when the interfacial layer has a finite depth, and a condition for the presence of moistening or drying regimes in the mixed layer, are derived. Profiles of dimensionless scalar moments in the mixed layer are proposed to be expressed in terms of two empirical similarity functions F _m and F _i , dependent on dimensionless height z/z _i , and the interfacial Richardson number Ri. The obtained similarity expressions adequately approximate the LES profiles of scalar statistics, and properly represent the impact of stability, shear, and entrainment. They are also consistent with the parameterization proposed for free convection in the first part of this paper.     

二维勘探新观点

应用大容量、大道数地震仪,改变传统二维地震排列方式,由单线排列接收改为多线排列接收。根据勘探精度的要求、测线网度的不同分二种方式:一是适合于大网度概查普查的单条测线多线排列接收;二是适合于精查和采区二维地震的多条测线多线排列接收方式。     

浅谈可控震源在煤田地震勘探中应用的几点认识

使用可控震源应注意三方面的问题:一是与大地的耦合,二是参数的最佳选取,三是在保证野外采集工作量近似不变情况下,提高地震剖面质量。解决方法是:配备可控震源力控装置、改变表层介质波阻抗可消除震源脱耦现象;选取参数应考虑清晰度、分辨率、信噪比,避免虚像出现在有效记录范围内;在野外数据采集时应减少振动次数、增加覆盖次数并注意压制不规则干扰和噪声,以提高地震剖面质量。     

山东省近55年夏季降水和平均气温的多时间尺度分析

利用最近55a山东夏季降水和平均气温资料，统计分析了降水和平均气温的变化特征，并用Meyer小波变换方法，对山东省夏季降水和平均气温进行了分析，发现山东夏季降水呈明显下降趋势，气温略呈上升趋势。小波分析显示两者在中短周期上基本一致，即它们的中短周期基本在11a，5～6a和2～3a左右的时间尺度上变动。而这些基本周期正是太阳黑子活动和海气相互作用的周期，说明山东省夏季降水和平均气温的周期变化主要受太阳黑子活动和海-气相互作用的影响。     

多尺度下的不确定性空间方向锥形模型研究

利用质心作为参考点,并在空间方向锥形模型中添加了扩展不确定度的参数,用区间分析法,对多尺度下顾及不确定性的空间方向关系进行形式化描述,来适应尺度变化引起的空间关系不确定性的变化,以更好地描述空间方向关系。该模型使得方向关系的划分上有个平滑的过渡区,在方向概念的表达上更符合人的认知。