土-结构动力相互作用对结构控制的影响

本文研究了土-结构动力相互作用对采取不同控制措施的结构控制效果的影响。文中首先建立了主动调谐质量阻尼器(ATMD)、半主动磁流变阻尼器(MR)和被动多重调谐质量阻尼器(MTMD)等三种结构控制措施在时域中的控制算法和控制律，然后基于子结构法，采用间接边界元方法，通过傅里叶变换，推导了分别安装三种结构控制措施的受控结构在频域中的运动方程，数值仿真分析了某36层高层建筑的地震反应及其控制效果。结果表明，当采用ATMD或MTMD控制时，考虑土-结构动力相互作用后结构地震反应有所减小；当采用MR控制时，考虑土-结构动力相互作用后结构地震反应有很大程度的减小。由此看来，在设计软土地基上高层结构的结构控制措施时，不考虑土-结构动力相互作用对结构控制效果的影响是偏于安全的。     

中国国家自然地图集Internet版的设计和研制

本文系统阐述了国家自然地图集Ｉｎｔｅｒｎｅｔ版的设计和研制过程中的若干问题,包括系统的概念设计、系统开发中的ＷｅｂＧＩＳ技术和策略,系统的主要功能和特色,以及系统维护和更新方案等。本系统从概念设计来看分为服务器端软件模块、浏览器端软件模块、国家自然地图集数据库支持等几个部分。系统开发中采取的ＷｅｂＧＩＳ技术和策略有:兼顾服务器端和客户端的综合型ＷｅｂＧＩＳ策略,基于Ｊａｖａ Ａｐｐｌｅｔ的 ＷｅｂＧＩＳ浏览器开发技术,基于Ｍａｐ Ｏｂｊｅｃｔ(ＭＯ)的ＷｅｂＧＩＳ服务器开发技术等３个方面。在系统的主要功能特色方面,本文从以下５个方面进行了论述:科学有序的内容结构、清晰精练并带导航的界面、富有特色的信息查询功能、多重表达的地图可视化效果、一定的空间信息分析和制图功能。在系统维护和更新方案上,本文从网络技术、数据更新、功能开发３个方面介绍了计划,并对今后的发展趋势进行了展望。     

Thematic Map Analysis Using Multiple Regression

Thematic maps can be analyzed by multiple regression for (1) forward prediction where a younger geological structural map is written as a least-squares function of older maps for information on historical perspectives or (2) by backward prediction where an older map is regressed stepwise on a series of younger ones to aid in prospecting. The technique was evaluated by a series of structure maps on different geological horizons from the U.S. Midcontinent (Kansas) where the forward prediction proved more effective than backward. In forward prediction, the first map entered into a multiple regression is invariably the immediately underlying one as expected. On the other hand, the first map in a backward prediction is not necessarily related to stratigraphy which limits the utility of the technique for prospecting.     

Estimation of the transfer function by autoregressive deconvolution techniques—An application to time series analysis

The transfer function of time-dependent models is classically inferred by the ordinary least squares (OLS) techniques. This OLS technique assumes independence of the residuals with time. However, in practical cases, this hypothesis is often not justified producing inefficient estimation of the transfer function. When the residuals constitute an autoregressive process, we propose to apply the Box-Jenkins' method to model the residuals, and to modify in a simple manner the primary convolution equation. Then, a multivariate regression technique is used to infer the transfer function of the new equation producing time-independent residuals. This three-step autoregressive deconvolution technique is particularly efficient for time series analysis. The reconstitution and the forecasting of real data are improved efficiently. Theoretically, the proposed method can be extended to the convolution equations for which the residuals follow a moving average or an autoregressive-moving average process, but the mathematical formulation is no longer direct and explicit. For this general case, we propose to approximate the moving average or the autoregressive-moving average process by an autoregressive process of sufficient order, and then the transfer function. Two case studies in hydrogeology will be used to illustrate the procedure.     

吉黑东部斑岩型-浅成热液型铜金矿床多重成矿模型

通过四个典型矿床（小西南岔、闹枝、五凤和刺猬沟）的对比，发现它们在形成时间-空间一成因上既相互联系，又相互区别。小西南岔和闹枝矿床存在三个成矿流体系统：加热天水系统(A)、排放流体系统(B)、蒸气缕(steam plume)反应系统(C)；五凤和刺猬沟矿床只有一个成矿流体系统，即排放流体系统(B)。前者的成矿流体由浅成岩浆房的补给；后者的成矿流体主要为循环天水，浅成岩浆房的补给不明显。小西南岔金铜矿床产于中生代火山岩盆地边缘的隆起带，属于斑岩型矿床；闹枝金（铜）矿床产于中生代火山岩盆地内的断隆块，属于斑岩-浅成热液过渡型矿床；五凤和刺猬沟金（银）矿床产于中生代火山岩盆地内断裂带，属于浅成热液型矿床。在区域成矿上，由浅入深，浅成热液型斑岩-浅成热液过渡型和斑岩型构成多重成矿模型。     

吉黑东部斑岩型－浅成热液型铜金矿床多重成矿模型

通过四个典型矿床（小西南岔、闹枝、五凤和刺猬沟）的对比，发现它们在形成时间－空间－成因上既相互联系，又相互区别。小西南岔和闹枝矿床存在三个成矿流体系统：加热天水系统（Ａ）、排放流体系统（Ｂ）、蒸气缕（ｓｔｅａｍｐｌｕｍｅ）反应系统（Ｃ）；五凤和刺猬沟矿床只有一个成矿流体系统，即排放流体系统（Ｂ）。前者的成矿流体由浅成岩浆房的补给；后者的成矿流体主要为循环天水，浅成岩浆房的补给不明显。小西南岔金铜矿床产于中生代火山岩盆地边缘的隆起带，属于斑岩型矿床；闹枝金（铜）矿床产于中生代火山岩盆地内的断隆块，属于斑岩－浅成热液过渡型矿床；五凤和刺猬沟金（银）矿床产于中生代火山岩盆地内断裂带，属于浅成熟液型矿床。在区域成矿上，由浅入深，浅成热液型斑岩－浅成热液过渡型和斑岩型构成多重成矿模型。     

Statistical Downscaling Based on Dynamically DownscaledPredictors： Application to Monthly Precipitation in Sweden

A prerequisite of a successful statistical downscaling is that large-scale predictors simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) must be realistic. It is assumed here that features smaller than the GCM resolution are important in determining the realism of the large-scale predictors. It is tested whether a three-step method can improve conventional one-step statistical downscaling. The method uses predictors that are upscaled from a dynamical downscaling instead of predictors taken directly from a GCM simulation. The method is applied to downscaling of monthly precipitation in Sweden. The statistical model used is a multiple regression model that uses indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation and 850-hPa specific humidity as predictors. Data from two GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4) and two RCM experiments of the Rossby Centre model (RCA1) driven by the GCMs are used. It is found that upscaled RCA1 predictors capture the seasonal cycle better than those from the GCMs, and hence increase the reliability of the downscaled precipitation. However, there are only slight improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle of downscaled precipitation. Due to the cost of the method and the limited improvements in the downscaling results, the three-step method is not justified to replace the one-step method for downscaling of Swedish precipitation.     

Evolution mechanism of the western Pacific subtropical high

Ever since Charney et al.[1] studied the multiple equilibrium states in atmosphere with highly truncated spectral method in 1979, many Chinese researchers, such as Li Maicun et al. (1983)[2], Liu Chongjian et al. (1983)[3], Miu Jinhai et al. (1985)[4] and…     

基于改进的Elman神经网络的中长期径流预报

径流中长期预报长期以来一直都是人们关注的热点研究问题。现行的径流预报方法很多,传统的有时间序列法,多元回归分析法等,这些方法虽然简单易用,但是如果预报对象提供的样本容量偏小或者因子选择不够合理,都会造成预报精度偏差过大,难于有效的指导工程应用。鉴于此,本文提出一种改进的采用局部回归的Elman神经网络方法。并应用到凤滩水库优化调度的径流预报中。结果表明,与回归分析法、BP网络相比较,该方法不仅提高了算法的效率,而且提高了预报的精度,在径流预报中具有有效性和优越性。     

近50年汾河上中游流域径流对气候变化的响应分析

以汾河上中游干流水文站近50年的气象水文资料为基础,采用多元回归及敏感性分析方法,对径流、降水和气温三者之间变化规律以及区域水文对气候变化的响应进行了定量分析,结果表明气候变暖导致了蒸发的加剧,并一定程度上造成了汾河干流径流量的减少。预估暖干气候条件下引发干旱灾害的可能性将增强。