Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in open sea

A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters.     

渤海MN油田南区相控地质建模

在精细地层对比、沉积相分析和隔夹层分布等研究基础上,笔者采用相控方法进行渤海MN油田南区储层三维地质建模。在沉积相模拟中,以沉积模式为蓝本,将沉积亚相展布、井震结合预测的泥岩夹层分布等确定性认识和随机模拟技术相结合,同时依据各沉积亚相内储层发育的特征和差异,选择不同的“砂包泥”和“泥包砂”模拟思路,实现逐级相控、定量表征储层的空间分布。研究结果表明,以精细油田地质特征认识为基础,采用多条件地质约束的相控建模方法,可以更好地反映沉积认识,提高储层建模的精确度。     

北极冰下声传播特性实验研究

通过2017年8月6日在北极海域开展的一次声传播实验,开展了冰下声传播特性实验研究。结合Burke-Twersky （BT）散射模型与射线模型,分析了冰下声传播的多途到达结构,研究了接收声强变化规律,解释了接收声强在30 min内衰减20 dB的现象,分析了接收信号的时间相关性,探讨了接收信号相关性较低的原因。实验结果表明,表面接收信号主要由小角度多次反转反射声线、一次海底反射声线和二次海底反射声线依次构成,表面声道到达信号显著强于海底反射信号。试验冰站在试验期间的运动导致了声传播信号强度和相关性的迅速衰减,并通过仿真得到了验证。     

一次典型高压型海雾过程中海上大气波导的数值模拟

2009年4月9—12日黄海海域发生了一次受高压系统影响的海雾过程。利用卫星观测与探空数据、WRF模式(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)对此次海雾过程及相伴的大气波导进行了观测分析与数值模拟。海雾与波导发展可分为3个阶段:(1)大气波导先于海雾存在于黄海海面;受高压下沉影响,黄海上空存在逆温层和较强的湿度梯度,表现为较强的贴海表面波导和非贴海表面波导。(2)海雾始于高压西部,并随高压系统逐渐东移减弱,向黄海北部扩展;辐射冷却虽然使雾顶附近逆温增强,但海雾的机械湍流使其顶部湿度梯度减小,雾顶附近对应弱悬空波导或波导消失。(3)高压系统影响使干空气下沉到雾区导致黄海海雾消散;雾顶附近逆温仍存在,同时湿度梯度增大,黄海上空逐渐变为非贴海表面波导。本研究结果表明:高压系统不仅极易为波导的发生提供有利条件,而且有利于海雾的生成,在海雾演变过程中主要是雾顶水汽梯度的变化导致了波导类型及强度的变化。     

Origin of the hydrocarbon gases carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulfide in Dodan Field (SE-Turkey)

Gas occurrences consisting of carbon dioxide (CO₂), hydrogen sulfide (H₂S), and hydrocarbon (HC) gases and oil within the Dodan Field in southeastern Turkey are located in Cretaceous carbonate reservoir rocks in the Garzan and Mardin Formations. The aim of this study was to determine gas composition and to define the origin of gases in Dodan Field. For this purpose, gas samples were analyzed for their molecular and isotopic composition. The isotopic composition of CO₂, with values of −1.5‰ and −2.8‰, suggested abiogenic origin from limestone. δ³⁴S values of H₂S ranged from +11.9 to +13.4‰. H₂S is most likely formed from thermochemical sulfate reduction (TSR) and bacterial sulfate reduction (BSR) within the Bakuk Formation. The Bakuk Formation is composed of a dolomite dominated carbonate succession also containing anhydrite. TSR may occur within an evaporitic environment at temperatures of approximately 120–145 °C. Basin modeling revealed that these temperatures were reached within the Bakuk Formation at 10 Ma. Furthermore, sulfate reducing bacteria were found in oil–water phase samples from Dodan Field. As a result, the H₂S in Dodan Field can be considered to have formed by BSR and TSR.As indicated by their isotopic composition, HC gases are of thermogenic origin and were generated within the Upper Permian Kas and Gomaniibrik Formations. As indicated by the heavier isotopic composition of methane and ethane, HC gases were later altered by TSR. Based on our results, the Dodan gas field may have formed as a result of the interaction of the following processes during the last 7–8 Ma: 1) thermogenic gas generation in Permian source rocks, 2) the formation of thrust faults, 3) the lateral-up dip migration of HC-gases due to thrust faults from the Kas Formation into the Bakuk Formation, 4) the formation of H₂S and CO₂ by TSR within the Bakuk Formation, 5) the vertical migration of gases into reservoirs through the thrust fault, and 6) lateral-up dip migration within reservoir rocks toward the Dodan structure.     

Seismic stratigraphy and subsidence analysis of the southern Brazilian margin (Campos,Santos and Pelotas basins)

The Campos, Santos and Pelotas basins have been investigated in terms of 2D seismo-stratigraphy and subsidence. The processes controlling accommodation space (e.g. eustacy, subsidence, sediment input) and the evolution of the three basins are discussed. Depositional seismic sequences in the syn-rift Barremian to the drift Holocene basin fill have been identified. In addition, the subsidence/uplift history has been numerically modeled including (i) sediment flux, (ii) sedimentary basin framework, (iii) relation to plate-tectonic reconfigurations, and (iv) mechanism of crustal extension. Although the initial rift development of the three basins is very similar, basin architecture, sedimentary infill and distribution differ considerably during the syn-rift sag to the drift basin stages. After widespread late Aptian–early Albian salt and carbonate deposition, shelf retrogradation dominated in the Campos Basin, whereas shelf progradation occurred in the Santos Basin. In the Tertiary, these basin fill styles were reversed: since the Paleogene, shelf progradation in the Campos Basin contrasts with overall retrogradation in the Santos Basin. In contrast, long-term Cretaceous–Paleogene shelf retrogradation and intense Neogene progradation characterize the Pelotas Basin. Its specific basin fill and architecture mainly resulted from the absence of salt deposition and deformation. These temporally and spatially varying successions were controlled by specific long-term subsidence/uplift trends. Onshore and offshore tectonism in the Campos and Santos basins affected the sediment flux history, distribution of the main depocenters and occurrence of hydrocarbon stratigraphic–structural traps. This is highlighted by the exhumation and erosion of the Serra do Mar, Serra da Mantiqueira and Ponta Grossa Arch in the hinterland, as well as salt tectonics in the offshore domain. The Pelotas Basin was less affected by changes in structural regimes until the Eocene, when the Andean orogeny caused uplift of the source areas. Flexural loading largely controlled its development and potential hydrocarbon traps are mainly stratigraphic.     

Observations and modelling of the travel time delay and leading negative phase of the 16 September 2015 Illapel,Chile tsunami

The systematic discrepancies in both tsunami arrival time and leading negative phase (LNP) were identified for the recent transoceanic tsunami on 16 September 2015 in Illapel, Chile by examining the wave characteristics from the tsunami records at 21 Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) sites and 29 coastal tide gauge stations. The results revealed systematic travel time delay of as much as 22 min (approximately 1.7％ of the total travel time) relative to the simulated long waves from the 2015 Chilean tsunami. The delay discrepancy was found to increase with travel time. It was difficult to identify the LNP from the near-shore observation system due to the strong background noise, but the initial negative phase feature became more obvious as the tsunami propagated away from the source area in the deep ocean. We determined that the LNP for the Chilean tsunami had an average duration of 33 min, which was close to the dominant period of the tsunami source. Most of the amplitude ratios to the first elevation phase were approximately 40％, with the largest equivalent to the first positive phase amplitude. We performed numerical analyses by applying the corrected long wave model, which accounted for the effects of seawater density stratification due to compressibility, self-attraction and loading (SAL) of the earth, and wave dispersion compared with observed tsunami waveforms. We attempted to accurately calculate the arrival time and LNP, and to understand how much of a role the physical mechanism played in the discrepancies for the moderate transoceanic tsunami event. The mainly focus of the study is to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of each secondary physical effect to the systematic discrepancies using the corrected shallow water model. Taking all of these effects into consideration, our results demonstrated good agreement between the observed and simulated waveforms. We can conclude that the corrected shallow water model can reduce the tsunami propagation speed and reproduce the LNP, which is observed for tsunamis that have propagated over long distances frequently. The travel time delay between the observed and corrected simulated waveforms is reduced to <8 min and the amplitude discrepancy between them was also markedly diminished. The incorporated effects amounted to approximately 78％ of the travel time delay correction, with seawater density stratification, SAL, and Boussinesq dispersion contributing approximately 39％, 21％, and 18％, respectively. The simulated results showed that the elastic loading and Boussinesq dispersion not only affected travel time but also changed the simulated waveforms for this event. In contrast, the seawater stratification only reduced the tsunami speed, whereas the earth's elasticity loading was responsible for LNP due to the depression of the seafloor surrounding additional tsunami loading at far-field stations. This study revealed that the traditional shallow water model has inherent defects in estimating tsunami arrival, and the leading negative phase of a tsunami is a typical recognizable feature of a moderately strong transoceanic tsunami. These results also support previous theory and can help to explain the observed discrepancies.     

端元分析模型在长江口邻近海域沉积物粒度数据反演方面的应用

海洋沉积物粒度分布曲线往往同时具有多个峰,而且同一类型沉积物因时间和空间上的不同其粒度分布曲线峰的位置也不同,沉积物粒度分布多峰的特点反映了沉积物不同的输运形式和沉降过程[1,2].因此,在沉积物的粒度分布数据中保存了有关沉积物输运和沉降的信息,而获得这些信息对于揭示沉积区域水动力特性、沉积物输运和沉降规律具有重要的意义.     

海浪数值模式研究回顾与进展

本文简单介绍了海浪的生成、发展理论,以及海浪数值模式的分类;回顾总结了国内外在海浪数值模式研究方面取得的成果。     

Identifying Rocky Seabed Using GIS-Modeled Predictor Variables

Mapping the seabed along the Norwegian coast is costly and time consuming. Hence, finding a modeling method to separate rocky seabed from other substrate types will provide digital maps that may be used to develop cost-effective sampling designs to predict species and habitat distribution. Our approach was to use geophysical data that were quantitative and objectively defined, generalized additive models (GAMs), and Akaike information criterion (AIC) to develop statistical models and select among them. We found that slope, terrain curvature, wave exposure, and depth predicted rocky seabed occurrence with a high degree of certainty.