仁和压容应变短临异常信息的提取及映震能力分析

自1997年以来，已经在仁和压容应变台监测范围内发生了多次中等地震。应用一元线性回归分析方法对1997年4月到2001年12月底的压容应变和井孔水位资料进行分析处理，对该台1997年4月以来的异常特征和映震能力进行了分析和探讨。     

青藏高原周缘地区大地震发生的地球物理条件的新认识

青藏高原周缘是我国的主要强震区之一，也是地球物理场变异带和地壳陡变带，前人研究的结果表明强震的发生与它们有密切的关系。在前人研究的基础上经过仔细分析，认为强震往往发生在地球物理场变异带和地壳陡变带等值线由密集变为舒缓或斜坡带上，这可为地震地点的预测、潜在震源区的划分、地震参数的确定，提供基本的必要条件。     

天津地区井水位年变异常研究

近年来 ,中国地震预报学者开始关注井水位的年变异常及其中短期预测意义问题 ,但井水位年变异常判别采用动态图像的定性对比方法 ,表现出一定的随意性。针对这种现状 ,文中引进概率论与数理统计中的随机过程理论与时间序列分析技术 (盛骤等 ,1989) ,提出了“井水位动态年周期法”与“相对时段速率比较法” ,解决了井水位年变异常的定量识别方法 ,并应用到天津井网 2 1口井的观测数据 (1985年以来 )分析中 ,证明了该方法的可行性与有效性。分析结果表明 ,天津井网中有 7口井在首都圈邻区 4次中强 (MS≥ 5 .8)地震之前 ,表现出 17井次的井水位年变异常 ,且多在震前 1.5～6个月内出现 ,从而再次证明了井水位年变异常具有一定的中短期预测意义     

汪清7.2级深震地下流体动态异常探析

2002年6月29日汪清7．2级深震前，吉林省地下流体观测网部分井孔观测到一组从趋势到短期前兆异常。本文阐述这些异常出现的特征和时空演化过程。认为异常出现的时间与震中距密切相关，其空间展布具有迁移性，中期异常由外围向震中收缩，其速率很小，进入短期阶段，岩石处于失稳、临失稳状态，水位异常由震中向外围发散，速率迅速加大。同时发现了异常盲区即深震的震中区，它对预测深震中有非常实际的意义，同时对研究板块运动、地球动力学过程也有一定的参考价值。     

邯郸磁山井水氡异常与华北两次中强地震关系初探

大同6．1级和张北6．2级地震前，邯郸磁山井水氧值都出现趋势性高值异常变化。应用水氧异常的滑动平均值和从属函数的判定方法做进一步分析，结果表明，磁山井水氧值的中期异常与华北地区的这两次中强地震有较好的对应关系；对出现这种对应关系的机理进行了讨论。     

三马坊水温重复性前兆异常的构造特征

研究发现三马坊水温对应某些构造带上的地震,其前兆异常有相似性和重复性特征.对应北西向张渤构造带上的地震,其前兆异常形态为突降型,对应东西向阴山-燕山构造带上的地震,其前兆异常形态为上升型,表明水温前兆异常的相似性和重复性特征受活动性构造体系所控制.深入研究三马坊水温前兆异常特征与活动构造带间的关系,可能是突破该地区地震短临预报的有效途径.     

青海省3次强震前地下流体短临异常的对比分析

通过对发生于1999～2000年间库玛中东段地区3次5级以上地震前地下流体短临异常的分析对比，得出了该地区地下流体短临异常的时空强演化特征。     

德令哈6．6级地震前地震活动及地震序列特征

德令哈6．6级地震发生在青海省地震局2003年度会商确定的应注意地区内，震前测震学出现多项中短期异常。该地震序列从其能量释放比、震级差均符合主震一余震型判断指标，为主震-余震型序列。序列跟踪工作总结出该序列早期阶段(20天内)预测强余震的几项指标。     

Laplace-transform analytic element solution of transient flow in porous media

A Laplace-transform analytic element method (LT-AEM) is described for the solution of transient flow problems in porous media. Following Laplace transformation of the original flow problem, the analytic element method (AEM) is used to solve the resultant time-independent modified Helmholtz equation, and the solution is inverted numerically back into the time domain. The solution is entirely general, retaining the mathematical elegance and computational efficiency of the AEM while being amenable to parallel computation. It is especially well suited for problems in which a solution is required at a limited number of points in space–time, and for problems involving materials with sharply contrasting hydraulic properties. We illustrate the LT-AEM on transient flow through a uniform confined aquifer with a circular inclusion of contrasting hydraulic conductivity and specific storage. Our results compare well with published analytical solutions in the special case of radial flow.     

Estimation of fundamental periods of shear‐wall dominant building structures

Shear‐wall dominant multistorey reinforced concrete structures, constructed by using a special tunnel form technique are commonly built in countries facing a substantial seismic risk, such as Chile, Japan, Italy and Turkey. In spite of their high resistance to earthquake excitations, current seismic code provisions including the Uniform Building Code (International Conference of Building Officials, Whittier, CA, 1997) and the Turkish Seismic Code (Specification for Structures to be Built in Disaster Areas, Ankara, Turkey, 1998) present limited information for their design criteria. In this study, consistency of equations in those seismic codes related to their dynamic properties are investigated and it is observed that the given empirical equations for prediction of fundamental periods of this specific type of structures yield inaccurate results. For that reason, a total of 80 different building configurations were analysed by using three‐dimensional finite‐element modelling and a set of new empirical equations was proposed. The results of the analyses demonstrate that given formulas including new parameters provide accurate predictions for the broad range of different architectural configurations, roof heights and shear‐wall distributions, and may be used as an efficient tool for the implicit design of these structures. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.