Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in open sea

A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters.     

Simulation of Pollutant Transport in Marmaris Bay

The circulation pattern and the pollutant transport in the Marmaris Bay are simulated by the developed three-dimensional baroclinic model. The Marmaris Bay is located at the Mediterranean Sea coast of Turkey. Since the sp ring tidal range is typically 20- 30 cm, the dominant forcing for the circulation and water exchange is due to the wind action. In the Marmaris Bay, there is sea outfall discharging directly into the bay. and that threats the bay water quality significantly. The current patterns in the vicinity of the outfall have been observed by tracking drogues which are moved by currents at different water depths. In the simulations of pollutant transport, the coliforms-counts is used as the tracer. The model provides realistic predictions for the circulation and pollutant transport in the Marmaris Bay. The transport model component predictions well agree with the results of a laboratory model study.     

贡湖及其相关水域风生流模拟研究

在太湖风生流的数值模拟研究的基础上，设计模拟贡湖及其相关水域风生流的套网格数值模式。应用该模式研究不同风情下，梅梁湖，太湖主体湖水对贡湖的影响。     

海岸线长度与分维在不同比例尺地图上的变化研究

结合国内外海岸线分形研究进展 ,以江苏省海岸线为例 ,系统地探讨了不同比例尺地图上海岸线长度与分维的变化及其规律。指出海岸线长度与地图比例尺之间存在有 lg L =algk b的基本关系 ;其次 ,对于同一条海岸线来说 ,使用量规法和网格法计算所得分维结果是不同的 ,使用量规法的计算结果大于使用网格法的计算结果 ;再者 ,在不同比例尺地图上 ,同一海岸线的分维是不同的 ,随着地图比例尺的逐渐变小 ,海岸线分维相应地逐渐变小 ,且在不同比例尺间使用量规法计算所得海岸线分维结果的差值大于使用网格法计算所得海岸线分维结果的差值     

海岸带专题地图编绘相关问题

海岸带是影响人类活动的重要地带，海岸带专题地图能够详细表示出海岸带的特性。随着海洋经济的发展，海岸图的需求日益增加。从地图的数学要素出发，提出目前海岸图绘制存在的问题，并从地图学、海洋学、遥感地学的角度，对地图投影的选择、坐标系转换、比例尺对海岸图编绘的影响及控制点的确定等问题进行了综合分析。