滑动窗口的普通克立格方法在降水量插值中的应用

利用2009年全国2200个观测站降水量资料,使用滑动窗口的普通克立格方法对降水量资料进行格点化估计。针对滑动窗口的普通克立格方法在降水量格点化应用中存在的问题,设计了3种技术处理的试验方案。比较了全局搜索与方位邻近方法的误差,讨论了最大影响半径及屏蔽效应对插值效果的作用。提出了方位邻近法的样本点选择策略,结果表明,相对传统滑动窗口的普通克立格方法较常使用的全局搜索法而言,方位邻近法显著降低了计算资源的耗用,同时又具有较高的插值精度,特别是在站点密集地区有突出的优势;试验结果也表明:变程为4°～5°的经(纬)线弧长时,在方位邻近法下,我国大部分区域有较好的插值效果;屏蔽效应弱,ε取值为0.1时,降水量插值准确率较高,随着ε增大,插值误差也逐渐增大。     

浙西南热带气旋强降水主要影响因子

对1950-2010年影响浙西南的热带气旋降水的移动路径、影响时间、强度、西风槽、西南季风以及地形等主要因子进行分析.结果表明:在玉环南-厦门一带登陆的热带气旋是影响浙西南的热带气旋中正面影响浙西南的类型,影响时间和最大平均过程降雨量、最大过程雨量存在着正相关关系,热带气旋的强度与其降水强度相关性较高.西风槽的存在不仅影响着热带气旋路径的变化,其槽前的西南气流也为热带气旋降水提供充足的水汽,同时槽后冷空气与热带气旋相结合,使丽水的西北部出现另一个强降水中心.西南季风为登陆后的热带气旋提供了水汽条件,使降水得到增幅.浙西南独特的地形,使在厦门以北到玉环以南登陆后西进、西北行或西北行后在120°E以西转向北上的热带气旋迎着山脉进入,降水强度明显加强.     

Numerical simulations of the Hyades dynamics and the nature of the moving Hyades cluster

We present our numerical simulations of the dynamical evolution of the Hyades open cluster. The simulations were performed usinga modified NBODY6 algorithm that included tidal forces and a realistic orbit of the cluster in a gravitational field described by the Miyamoto-Nagai potential. Our goal was to study the nature of movingclu sters. We show that the stars that were earlier cluster members could be later identified within a sphere of 50 pc in diameter around the Sun. The number of such stars for the chosen initial mass and virial radius of the cluster does not exceed ten. The maximum space velocity of these stars relative to the core of the current cluster does not exceed 3 km s^?1. Our numerical simulations confirm the assumption that some of the moving clusters near the Sun could consist of stars that have escaped from open clusters in the course of their dynamical evolution.     

基于3D+-TPR-tree的点目标全时段移动索引设计

在经典3D R-tree基础上提出新的3D R-tree索引,通过改变待索引数据项的结构并重新设计查询处理算法,减少包容矩形死区,提高查询效率;为了满足全时段查询要求,设计一种称为3D -TPR-tree的联合索引结构,并对其中TPR-tree的参数包容矩形的调整算法进行优化。通过测试,证明3D R-tree的查询效率明显高于普通3D R-tree;此外,测试结果也表明经过优化的参数包容矩形的调整算法也部分提升了TPR-tree的查询性能。     

城乡边缘区农户家庭就业空间行为模式及机制研究——以衡阳市珠晖区酃湖乡4个样本村为例

在湖南省衡阳市酃湖乡4个村268家农户的访谈和问卷调查的基础上,通过主导因子分析法,总结了城乡边缘区农户就业空间行为的模式,即传统农业模式、城郊农业就业模式、省域就业模式、市域就业模式、本村置业模式和本市置业模式等6种就业空间行为模式,并从城市化、农业生产效率和城乡二元结构等3个方面总结了各种模式的形成机制。     

基于时间序列分析和灰色理论的建筑物沉降预测模型研究

基于时间序列分析方法建立建筑物沉降预测模型,其中通过二次移动平均法提取出沉降监测序列中的趋势项,并在此基础上采用灰色系统理论动态GM（1,1）模型进行趋势项预测。实际算例结果表明,该模型能够较好地预测沉降变化的发展趋势,并具有较高的预测精度,证明了该预测模型具有一定的可行性和有效性。     

河南省黄淮气旋暴雨的天气特征及个例诊断

通过对1990-2001年6-8月影响河南省的18个黄淮气旋暴雨个例进行统计得知:影响河南省的黄淮气旋暴雨6月最多,7月次之,8月最少。黄淮气旋暴雨产生有两个源地,一个在河南省三花间略偏南一带,另一个在河南省南部和湖北的交界处,气旋的形成与两地向东开口的喇叭口地形有关。黄淮气旋暴雨发生前24-12 h,地面图上影响系统可分为西路冷空气影响型和倒槽顶部发展型两种;高空图上,河南多受高压脊控制,700 hPa影响系统有"人"字型切变和低槽型两种,但与地面影响系统没有直接对应关系。为了进一步揭示黄淮气旋暴雨的发生机理,利用NCEP再分析资料,对2007年7月12-15日黄淮气旋引发的暴雨天气过程进行了诊断分析,结果表明:黄淮气旋暴雨的发生、发展是大气斜压性强烈发展的结果,500 hPa高空急流和700 hPa低涡的移动方向对地面气旋的移动有引导作用。     

Moving load response of an axially loaded Timoshenko beam on a multilayered transversely isotropic half-space comprising different media

This paper investigates the dynamic response of an axially loaded Timoshenko beam coupled with a multilayered transversely isotropic (TI) half-space subjected to a moving load. An axial force induced by the thermal expansion is taken into account in the Timoshenko beam. The half-space considers the alternate distribution of an arbitrary number of TI elastic and poroelastic layers to model foundation soils with different properties and moisture conditions. To solve the governing equations, Fourier transform is adopted. The stratified foundation is formulated by extending an “adapted stiffness matrix method” to a more general scenario with an arbitrary number of layers. The beam is then coupled with the foundation to derive solutions to the system in the frequency-wavenumber domain. The final results in the time-spatial domain are recovered by the inverse Fourier transform. After confirming the accuracy of the method in this study, the influences of the pore water existence, the transverse isotropy of different parameters, and the axial force are investigated. It can be observed that the effect of pore water existence on the maximum beam deflection can reach 22% in this study. The transverse isotropy of the elastic and shear moduli influences the critical speed of the beam deflection by altering the phase velocity of the first wave propagation mode of the beam-foundation system. The vertical permeability coefficient is more important than the horizontal one in determining the excess pore pressure. The rise of the beam temperature (axial force) decreases the critical speed and magnifies the vibrations.     

Dynamic responses of unsaturated half‐space soil to a moving harmonic rectangular load

The problem of the dynamic responses of a semi‐infinite unsaturated poroelastic medium subjected to a moving rectangular load is investigated analytical/numerically. The dynamic governing equations are obtained with consideration of the compressibility of solid grain and pore fluid, inertial coupling, and viscous drag as well as capillary pressure in the unsaturated soil, and they can be easily degraded to the complete Biot's theory. Using the Fourier transform, the general solution for the equations is derived in the transformed domain, and then a corresponding boundary value problem is formulated. By introducing fast Fourier transform algorithm, the unsaturated soil vertical displacements, effective stresses, and pore pressures induced by moving load are computed, and some of the calculated results are compared with those for the degenerated solution of saturated soils and confirmed. The influences of the saturation, the load speed, and excitation frequency on the response of the unsaturated half‐space soil are investigated. The numerical results reveal that the effects of these parameters on the dynamic response of the unsaturated soil are significant.     

Adaptive analysis of infinite beams dynamics problems using the periodic configuration update method in the time domain

This paper proposes a new approach for the assessment of the dynamic response of continuously supported infinite beams under high‐speed moving loads. A change in the representation of equations of motion in the dynamics of discrete structures is proposed to obtain an improved accuracy of the numerical integration in the time domain. The proposed numerical method called the “periodic configuration update” or “PCU method” is applied to solve the problem of a vertical moving harmonic load on an infinite classical Euler‐Bernoulli beam resting on a continuous viscoelastic foundation. This study shows the superiority of the proposed method in comparison with other methods presented in the literature that suffer from the material time derivative, i.e., convective terms, that arises from the Galilean transformation. To confront this numerical problem, the PCU method retains the principle of the spatial follow of loads while zeroing the relative velocity with the traversed beam via a step‐by‐step adaptive integration of the equation of structural dynamics. The dynamic load is modeled with high theoretical velocities that can reach the critical velocity of the studied beam with different angular frequencies belonging to moderate frequency range. A parametric study is carried out to analyze the influence of key parameters on the convergence. The obtained results show a high efficiency of the PCU method for solving these types of problems relative to the dynamics of high speed trains/tracks.