河北省阳原县地质灾害调查与区划

结合地质灾害调查与区划项目中“以人为本”的思想，根据阳原县具体的地理情况、地质环境，分析引起地质灾害的主要因素，查明区内存在的地质灾害隐患，对地质灾害进行区划，划分出地质灾害危险区、易发区、稳定区，并依据区划结果提出治理阳原县地质灾害的切实可行的建议，指出在不同地质灾害区中采取不同处理措施。     

河南红旗渠沿线地质灾害易发性评价

红旗渠是20世纪60年代河南省林州市人民在国家极其困难时期依靠自力更生、艰苦奋斗，在太行山腰上修建的引漳入林水利工程。建成后灌溉着林州3．6万hm^2农田，解决了98万人口和37万头牲畜的吃水问题，发挥着巨大的经济效益。然而，红旗渠沿线地质条件极为复杂，地质灾害频繁发生，自红旗渠建成运行以来，几乎每年都有崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害发生。1960～2000年，红旗渠总干渠因地质灾害造成的决口事件有19次。1996年8月3～4日，由于连降暴雨，引发崩塌、滑坡和泥石流等地质灾害，使总干渠沿线154处渠道淤塞，淤积达94402m^3，给工农业生产和人民生命财产造成巨大损失，直接经济损失达1．17亿元，灾后修复费用达1100万余元。多年来每年用于地质灾害后修复的费用达数百万元。如何有效地防治红旗渠沿线地质灾害，确保顺畅其流，千秋永固，是值得研究的一项重要课题。据调查，共发现各类地质灾害94处，其中危岩体44处，崩塌24处，滑坡12处，泥石流14处。作者基于地质灾害现状，采用定性分析结合定量分析方法，对各类地质灾害进行评价，将红旗渠沿线地质灾害易发性划分为4个区，即高易发区、中易发区、低易发区和不易发区，为红旗渠沿线地质灾害防治规划提供依据。     

建设用地地质灾害危险性评估中几个问题的思考

结合工作实践，就建设用地地质灾害危险性评估及其成果审查工作中经常遇到的5个问题——评估灾害类型的确定原则，评估区环境条件分析深度的把握，现状、预测及综合地质灾害危险性评估内容的侧重点，土地适宜性评价的依据以及优秀评估成果的判定标准，提出了个人的理解和认识。供从事类似工作的同志参考。     

长白山天池火山地质学研究的若干进展与灾害分析

通过以减轻火山灾害为目的的天池火山锥体顶部地区地质填图工作，发现了天池火山锥体附近不同期次火山泥石流，部分火山泥石流显示的高温定位特征指示了其与千年大喷发的成因联系。这些火山泥石流构成了严重的火山泥石流灾害，天池火山锥体近顶部大型滑坡体的发现则指示了天池火山另一种重要的灾害类型。滑坡体堆积物结构上可分为3种类型。天池火山千年大喷发时不同成分与物性的岩浆混合作用十分发育，指示了天池火山喷发前不同岩浆批的混合与共喷发机理。本文还论述了天池火山近代历史记录喷发物的分布与鉴别特征。     

苏鲁造山带区域地壳山根结构特征

本利用苏鲁大别造山带及其邻区的三维P波速度资料，详细对比研究了苏鲁与大别超高压变质带莫霍面深度和深部P波速度结构分布特征。结果表明，尽管苏鲁、大别超高压变质带都具有上地壳明显高速且上凸；中地壳增厚；下地壳埋藏较深且下凹等共同的P波速度结构特征，与大别地区相比较，苏鲁超高压变质带还存在着独特的区域性特征。从地貌上看，苏鲁地区山脉已经基本消失。苏鲁超高压变质带的地壳厚度为32～33公里，深于其周围地区2～3公里，但是莫霍面下凹程度远不如大别地区，造山带地壳山根已逐步趋向消失。苏鲁地区上地壳P波速度高于大别，比其周围地区约快1～1．2km/s，有可能显示了该区有更多高速、高密度的超高压变质岩折返到上地壳与地表的岩石物性效果。大别造山带山脉依然存在，莫霍面下凹更明显，沿NWW向串状残留地壳山根最深为37～38公里，深于其周围地区3～4公里。对比研究结果表明，由于区域构造运动的作用，苏鲁大别造山带中的不同地段，在其造山、演化过程中也存在着差别。苏鲁的造山运动起始虽略晚于大别，但结束的更快，比大别更早进入了造山运动的后期。分析促使苏鲁造山运动进程加速的主要构造原因可能有两点，郯庐断裂带的左旋走滑运动以及通过中国华北区域的大范围NW-SE向扩张应力场的影响。大区域构造背景加速了苏鲁造山带地表高山侵蚀过程的同时，随着山根浮力的不断减弱，地壳深部山根逐渐趋向消失。地壳速度结构特征有可能反映了苏鲁造山带的地壳山根随着地表山脉的侵蚀而减弱，趋向消失的过程。     

新疆博格达山分段及深浅构造转换关系

研究表明 ,天山及邻区自中生代以来一直处于热衰减状态 ,博格达山新生代再造山具有“冷隆升”性 ,盆山边界断裂多限于上地壳内 ,而非直通中地壳低速体甚至上地幔的“深大断裂”。造山带内的韧性剪切带是在古生代形成的 ,而不是再造山期的断裂 ,它对造山带隆升及盆山耦合无贡献 ,博格达山的隆升为复式背斜构造所支持。博格达山与准东的关系为背斜北翼与盆地平缓基底构成的挠曲构造 ,而不是被深大断裂分隔的断块。博格达山具有独特鲜明的分段性 ,造山带的两个弧形构造与新生代再生前陆盆地构成独特的“斜方对称”分布样式。以板条观点为指导 ,从盆山单元的平面配置关系和深浅构造转换关系入手 ,探讨了博格达山板内造山阶段的几何学和运动学分段性的成因 ,构建了盆山耦合模式     

Mountain Protection Forests against Natural Hazards and Risks: New French Developments by Integrating Forests in Risk Zoning

Forests can play a very significant role in protection against natural hazards and risks in mountain lands, especially against erosion and rockfalls. This paper first assesses knowledge concerning the capacity of forests to control natural hazards, with emphasis placed on forest location in catchments or slopes. Zoning aspects are then presented; based on the use of GIS, they allow determining priorities for forestry operations (cuts and biological engineering), in view to setting up an 'optimal management' of mountain forest ecosystems. Finally, an explanation is given of how the results of research are used for the management and planning of mountain ecosystems, illustrated by an example of researcher-practitioner transfer in France. Zoning, prevention, display and regular aspects are developed. On the basis of the experience and knowledge presented here, recommendations are proposed to better take into account the role of mountain forests in the control of natural hazards and risks. It is necessary to have an adapted legislative and economic framework, define priority forest intervention zones and determine an adapted sylviculture.     

Proposal of a National Mitigation Strategy Against Earthquakes in Turkey

While laboratory and analytical studies can provide valuable information about earthquake hazard mitigation, the most effective educator is the impact of a full-scale earthquake on a full-scale city. The recent earthquakes in Turkey showed that the governmental as well as individual attitudes towards earthquakes did not represent proportionate responses to the risk levels concerned. Turkey had weaknesses in preparing, planning, mitigating and responding to disasters in spite of the known seismic vulnerability of the country. Many steps have been taken after 1999 earthquakes in Turkey, however, the preparations largely concentrate on the response and recovery phases and a fundamental step to reform the current disaster management system and steps to rehabilitate the vulnerable building stock has not been undertaken until today. This would involve changing the present laws and regulations and de-centralising the disaster management system. The aim of this paper is to propose a national mitigation strategy for Turkey for a time-frame of 10 years. The model proposed is a very comprehensive model for earthquake risk reduction in Turkey and within this context, the legislative and technical aspects of mitigation will be discussed in detail. Strategies for mitigating and retrofitting the existing building stock will also be proposed.     

Damage Evaluation of Agro-meteorological Hazards in the Maize-Growing Region of Songliao Plain,China: Case Study of Lishu County of Jilin Province

Agro-meteorological hazards such as drought, waterlogging and cool summer occur with very high frequency and affect maize production and social-economic development in the maize-growing region of Songliao Plain, China. Moreover, both the frequency of these hazards and loss from them are considered to be increasing with global warming. The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively analyze the relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought, waterlogging and cool summer, and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards in the maize-growing area of Songliao Plain, taking Lishu county as a case study area based on GIS (Geographic Information System). Crop yield-climate analysis and regression analysis were employed to analyze and quantify relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought, waterlogging and cool summer, and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards. The parameters and model of damage evaluation were presented using weighted comprehensive analysis, and the degree of damage of drought, waterlogging and cool summer to maize production was comprehensively evaluated and regionalized. It is shown that from 1949 to 1990, the negative value years of the fluctuation of maize yield due to meteorological hazards accounted for 55% of seasons, of which 14% was caused by drought, 30% by waterlogging, 4% by cool summer and drought, 9% by cool summer and waterlogging, 13% by drought and waterlogging, 30% by drought, waterlogging and cool summer. Studies on the instability and spatial variation of the fluctuations in maize yield in Lishu county showed that the middle plains are stable areas to climatic influence, while southeastern hills and low mountains, the low lands of the plains along the East Liao River and the western plain are unstable areas in terms of areas in maize yield. The synthetic index of the degree of damage to maize of drought, waterlogging and cool summer showed a strong positive correlation with the ratio of the amount damaged to the normal yield of maize. This suggests that this index can be used to evaluate such damage. The degree of damage of drought, waterlogging and cool summer to maize in Lishu county shows the regional characteristics, which increase gradually from the center to the west and east, this being almost identical with the spatial distribution of the fluctuation of maize yield due to these hazards. This study can be expected to provide the basis for developing strategies to mitigate agro-meteorological hazards and reducing the losses from them, and adjust the medium and long-term distribution of agricultural activities so as to adapt to environmental changes.     

Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.