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111.
Stanley M. Miller 《Mathematical Geology》1988,20(5):529-542
Of the recognized nonsteady-state factors that influence slope stability, probably most critical in many field situations is the character of precipitation and infiltration activity. A groundwater response model used in conjunction with precipitation records can provide a historical catalog of estimated maximum groundwater levels in a particular study area. An extreme-value statistical analysis of this catalog is linked with geotechnical slope stability analyses to provide a landslide hazard model for estimating the probability of slope failure within a given time. This modeling approach can provide meaningful input to risk assessments for landslide mitigation programs and to decision analyses and cost-benefit studies important for land-use planning and resource management.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts, MGUS 87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987. 相似文献
112.
Robert L. Kovach 《Natural Hazards》1988,1(3):245-254
An estimate of the maximum macroseismic intensities and ground accelerations which might be expected for the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is made. The inferred maximum magnitudes lie in the range of 6.1 to 7.3 although the possibility that larger earthquakes can occur with long recurrence times cannot be precluded. Peak horizontal accelerations in the range of 0.4 to 0.5 g can be expected in Jordan. Probabilistic estimates indicate that the odds are about even (50-50) that an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 6 will occur within 80 years. 相似文献
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114.
Mansour Rahimi 《Natural Hazards》1993,7(1):59-82
There is a need to study hazards faced by physically disabled people during earthquakes. A literature review showed the importance of occupant behavior as a factor that contributes to casualty during earthquakes. A survey questionnaire was used to study the behavioral responses of 33 disabled residents, none of whom sustained injury, during the Loma Prieta earthquake of 17 October 1989. An occupant risk analysis methodology was developed to study the sequence of activities of the disabled people. Severe restrictions in the physical capabilities of the respondents did not appear to increase their exposure to hazards. Overall, the physically disabled occupants did not think of themselves as vulnerable, and those who felt vulnerable initiated self-protective action in response to the hazards present in their immediate surroundings. 相似文献
115.
Tashamingo Subdivision in Sinking Creek karst valley, a tributary of the Garretts Spring drainage basin in Jessamine and Woodford counties, Kentucky, was flooded in February 1989. To determine the cause of flooding, the groundwater basin boundary was mapped, discharge data were measured to determine intake capacity of swallets, and hydrologic modeling of the basin was conducted. Swallet capacity was determined to be limited by the hydraulic parameters of the conduit, rather than by obstruction by trash. Flooding from a precipitation event is more likely, and will be higher, when antecedent soil moisture conditions in the watershed are near saturation. Hydrologic modeling shows that suburban development of 20 percent of the southeast basin will cause a small increase in flood stage at Tashamingo Subdivision. 相似文献
116.
Information on fatalities from lightning strikes has been extracted from a specially compiled database on natural hazards in Australia. Records dating from 1803–1991 indicate that at least 650 persons have been killed by lightning strikes. Maps and charts show the percentages of victims with respect to age, sex, locality, activity, and other circumstances of the strike. The majority of the 650 fatalities recorded have occurred along the more populous southeastern coast. The overall death rate, from 1910–1989, is 0.08 per 100 000 population. The annual number of lightning fatalities has decreased with time, from a death rate of 0.21 in 1910–1919 to 0.01 in 1980–1989. This trend is more pronounced when population figures are taken into account. The group that has been most at risk in Australia is that of males aged 15–19, followed by males aged 20–34. The male:female ratio of victims has decreased with time but is not approaching equality, being 11.6 in 1910–1919 and 5.3 in 1980–1989. The diurnal and monthly occurrences of lightning fatalities peak at 12.00–18.00 hours and November-February respectively. About 86% of fatalities have occurred outdoors and 14% have occurred indoors. Approximately three-fifths of fatalities have been work-related, and the group of workers that has traditionally been most at risk is that of land-workers. Approximately one-fifth of fatalities have been recreation-related, although this proportion has been increasing with time. The recreational activities of water sports, golf, and cricket have had the greatest number of lightning fatalities. Comparisons are made between these data and the results of other similar studies, both in Australia and overseas. 相似文献
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118.
北京北山泥石流的分布受构造控制,呈北东方向展布。其分布在时间上和空间上均有一定的规律可寻。一条泥石流沟谷的形成从开始到结束,概括分为形成、位移和堆积。区内泥石流的形成主要有三种形式:以水力侵蚀为主,以坡面侵蚀为主和以沟源崩、滑塌形式触发沟床物质活动而形成的泥石流。 相似文献
119.
中国主要自然致灾因子的区域分异 总被引:34,自引:2,他引:34
依据102种自然致灾因子分布图,以县域为统计单元,建立了全国自然致灾因子数据库。在此基础上,绘制出中国自然致灾因子多度、相对强度、被灾指数图,进而分析了它们的区域分异,为进行中国自然灾害区划提供依据。 相似文献
120.
利用云、贵、川三省主要山系哀牢山、大娄山、大巴山的25个山地剖面气候站点,自1987-21-1990.2-28,19个气象要素的逐日观测资料,首次建立了西南三省山地剖面气象资料管理服务系统。系统具有资料管理、气候统计分析、资料比较等功能,适于科研、气候资料业务管理应用. 相似文献