Mapping the Geographical Diffusion of a Finnish Smallpox Epidemic from Historical Population Records

Smallpox mortality from an early 19th century epidemic in Finland is mapped at the parish village level. First, geographically referenced historical materials are used to construct a map showing the spread of smallpox mortality among villages. Next, the diffusion of smallpox morbidity is simulated by computer for the same set of villages. These two maps are then compared. Results indicate that at this scale maps of mortality diffusion can show general trends but have no direct spatial correspondence to the underlying pattern of morbidity diffusion. Mortality maps cannot be used as a surrogate measure of infectious contact behavior at micro scales of analysis.     

南海北部带鱼生长死亡与参数动态综合模式

根据我国近海带鱼分种研究结果,利用南海北部底拖网调查收集的带鱼属3鱼种的生物学资料,运用长度频率法估算了3鱼种的生长和死亡参数.带鱼、南海带鱼和短带鱼von Bertalanffy生长方程的渐近肛长分别为70.0,54.5和48.0 cm;生长系数分别为0.27,0.27和0.17;理论生长起点年龄分别为-0.60,-0.68和-1.10龄.用长度变换渔获曲线法估算的3鱼种总死亡系数分别为3.02,0.80和2.43;用经验公式估算的自然死亡系数分别为0.39,0.58和0.44;捕捞死亡系数分别为2.63,0.22和1.99.动态综合模式的分析结果表明,3鱼种都能承受较大的捕捞压力,资源利用的不合理之处是大量捕捞1龄以内的幼鱼;在最适利用状态下,带鱼、南海带鱼和短带鱼的开捕年龄分别应为3.0,2.0和2.7龄,对应的肛长分别为44,28和23 cm.     

Timing and duration of growth hiatuses in mid Holocene massive Porites corals from the northern South China Sea

Growth hiatuses in massive corals are usually indicative of past ecological or environmental stresses. Among 37 fossil Porites colonies surveyed from the reef flat of Dadonghai fringing reef at Sanya, Hainan Island, northern South China Sea, seven of them were found to show clear evidence of past mortality, representing a population of ～19%. Among these samples, two of them (SYO‐13 and SYO‐28) display clear growth hiatuses reflecting mortality followed by subsequent recruitment, and five others exhibit a well‐preserved mortality surface and no subsequent recruitment. The growth hiatuses were dated using high‐precision thermal ionisation mass spectrometry U‐series techniques. The age results suggest all the dated corals formed and died in the mid Holocene. Multiple dates below the growth hiatuses suggest that SYO‐13 and SYO‐28 died at 6298 ± 11 and 6929 ± 19 a BP (i.e. years before AD 1950), respectively. Multiple dates above the growth hiatuses indicate that growth in SYO‐13 and SYO‐28 resumed at 6257 ± 14 and 6898 ± 20 a BP, respectively. The calculated durations of growth hiatuses are therefore 41 ± 18 a for SYO‐13 and 31 ± 28 a for SYO‐28, respectively, implying growth resumed within decades after the mortality events. U‐series dating of four other samples with dead heads suggests that they died at 6035 ± 53, 6059 ± 23, 6127 ± 22 and 6474 ± 24 a BP, respectively. In addition, using solution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP‐MS), monthly resolution Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios were determined for the annual growth bands below and above the growth hiatuses for three of the dated samples. The Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca profiles indicate that the three corals probably died in different seasons (from spring to autumn), and the mortality appears to be unrelated to anomalous sea surface temperature‐induced bleaching. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of population change in widening the mortality gap in Scotland

The social gradient in health and mortality has been acknowledged for some time and, more recently, there is some evidence that the gap between the richer and poorer is widening in Britain. Other studies have also shown that health and mortality outcomes are worse in places that are experiencing population decline and better in places that are growing. This analysis examines, first, whether there is a mortality gap between the least and most deprived people in Scotland, second, whether this gap has widened since the 1980s and, third, whether the gap can be explained by patterns of population change. Our results demonstrate that the widening mortality gap in Scotland cannot be explained simply as an artefact of population change, even though it is widening most in those places that are experiencing population decline. This type of research is made possible by the reliable denominator population information provided in the 1981 and 2001 censuses.     

Winter mortality risk for American ginseng (Panax quinquefolium) in Saskatchewan

North American ginseng is native to the deciduous forest region of eastern North America but is now cultivated in areas well beyond its natural range. In recent years an expanding market has attracted growers in climatically less suitable regions, including the Canadian prairies. The ginseng root requires at least four years to reach marketable size and is sensitive to injury when the temperature drops below about −4°C. Such temperatures are not unusual in the prairies; thus winter kill is a hazard that may limit ginseng production in this region of Canada. This study analyses the risks of winter soil temperatures falling below levels critical for the survival of ginseng in Saskatchewan. It appears that winter conditions may be too severe for reliable production of this lucrative crop, although application of straw mulch and additional benefits of trapped snow could reduce the risk of winter kill.     

Influences of fisheries management measures on biological characteristics of threadfin bream (Nemipterus virgatus) in the Beibu Gulf,South China Sea

Long-term variations in population structure, growth, mortality, length at median sexual maturity, and exploitation rate of threadfin bream(Nemipterus virgatus) are reported based on bottom trawl survey data collected during 1960–2012 in the Beibu Gulf, South China Sea. Laboratory-based analyses were conducted on 16 791 individuals collected quarterly in eight different sampling years. Average body length, estimated asymptotic length, and percentage of large individuals have decreased significan...     

Helminth parasites of brown trout (Salmo Trutta L.) in Canterbury,New Zealand

Neopeltopsis pectinipes gen. et sp. nov. is described and figured from sublittoral marine algae at Wellington, New Zealand; the genus is an addition to the Peltidiidae Sars. The genus is compared with the other genera of the family, and a revised key is given to the genera of the Peltidiidae.     

Recovery from demographic shock in the New Länder of Germany

After the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, East Germany experienced a demographic shock as the ensuing insecurity and disorientation of the population was mirrored in their demographic behaviour. The situation is examined with respect to marriage, fertility and mortality. There are now signs of recovery but most people in the New Länder are still traumatised by events: nuptiality and fertility are still extremely low, while mortality is rapidly moving towards West German levels. Future demographic development will very much depend on socio-economic development and the provision of both hard and soft infrastructure conducive to stable partnerships and families since the current 'framework' has proved to be particularly unfriendly to women and children.     

Environmental toxicology: population modeling of cod larvae shows high sensitivity to loss of zooplankton prey

Two factors determine whether pollution is likely to affect a population indirectly through loss of prey: firstly, the sensitivity of the prey to the pollutants, and secondly, the sensitivity of the predator population to loss of prey at the given life stage. We here apply a statistical recruitment model for Northeast Arctic cod to evaluate the sensitivity of cod cohorts to loss of zooplankton prey, for example following an oil spill. The calculations show that cod cohorts are highly sensitive to possible zooplankton biomass reductions in the distribution area of the cod larvae, and point to a need for more knowledge about oil-effects on zooplankton. Our study illustrates how knowledge about population dynamics may guide which indirect effects to consider in environmental impact studies.     

Does cannibalism of larvae by adults affect settlement and connectivity of mussel populations?

Intertidal population dynamics are driven by a complex series of processes, including larval supply and the possibility of larval predation by benthic animals such as filter-feeders. We hypothesised that cannibalism by adults could play a major role in the population connectivity of mussel populations by removing larvae as they attempt to settle in the adult habitat. Specifically, we tested hypotheses that consumption of mussel larvae by adults removes a significant proportion of potential settlers and is influenced by both settlement intensity and tidal state (flooding or ebbing). Predation of mussel larvae by adult mussels was investigated on incoming and ebbing tides during four spring tides by analysing the gut contents of adult Perna perna and Mytilus galloprovincialis collected from the low intertidal mussel zone between October 2005 and January 2006. Consumption rates were then compared with estimates of successful settler densities on natural beds. The results showed that mortality of competent mussel larvae through adult ingestion removes up to 77% a of potential settlers. Rates of larval consumption were highest during months of intense settlement, suggesting that mussels feed opportunistically, filtering a relatively fixed volume of water and removing particles, including larvae, in proportion to their densities in the water. Rates of larviphagy were also higher during receding than incoming tides. We suggest that this is due to changes in larval density or, more probably, in adult filtration efficiency that are related to the state of the tide. Despite significant effects of both tidal state and settlement intensity on rates of larval ingestion, neither had a significant effect on the proportion of potential settlers removed. During settlement more than half of all potential settlers are lost through cannibalism, with potentially serious consequences for population maintenance. The results highlight the paradoxical nature of the evolution of settlement mechanisms in mussels, which must balance the advantages of settlement in habitats favourable to adults against the consumption of larvae by adults.