Distribution Characteristics of Sulfur and the Main Harmful Trace Elements in China’s Coal

To promote the rational development and use of clean coal resources in China, data on the regional and age distribution of sulfur, arsenic and other harmful elements in Chinese coal was broadly collected, tested for content, and analyzed. Coal in northwestern China is characterized by low to extremely low levels of sulfur; the coal of the Taiyuan Formation in northern China mainly has high-sulfur content; that of the Shanxi Formation is mainly characterized by low sulfur coal; and the Late Permian coal in southern China has overall higher sulfur content; other regions have low sulfur coal. The average content of harmful trace elements in the bulk of China＇s coal is similar to the corresponding content in the coal of the North America and the rest of the world, whereas the content of various elements （Hg, Sb and Se） is different in magnitude to the corresponding percentage in the crust. The average content of the elements Cr, Se, Co, Be, U, Br in Late Permian coal in S China ranks first in the country whereas the average content of Hg and CI in the coals of Late Carboniferous to Early Permian age in N China are the highest. The average content of Mn in Early and Middle Jurassic coal is higher in NW China. The high content of harmful elements in some coal should cause particular concern both in the development and utilization of coal.     

Prediction of UT1–UTC,LOD and AAM χ<Subscript>3</Subscript> by combination of least-squares and multivariate stochastic methods

This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ ₃). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ ₃ time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ ₃ data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ ₃ predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ ₃ time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ ₃ reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR.     

潜水蒸发系数综合分析

利用河北省冉庄水资源实验站、安徽省五道沟水文水资源实验站、山西省太谷均衡实验站实测的潜水蒸发资料,对潜水蒸发及潜水蒸发系数的变化规律进行了综合分析。提出了不同岩性、不同潜水埋深在有无作物生长条件下的潜水蒸发系数。为华北地区水资源平衡计算潜水蒸发系数的选定提供了参考数据。     

广州市地面塌陷分布特征与人为致灾因子分析

广州市地面塌陷频繁发生,近10年来呈波动式上升趋势。其塌陷类型分为岩溶塌陷和工程地面塌陷两种,岩溶塌陷主要分布在广花盆地的花都区、白云区,工程地面塌陷主要分布在主城区。地面塌陷孕灾环境复杂、致灾因子多样,承灾体脆弱,灾害后果严重,人为因素是地面塌陷的主要诱发因素。岩溶塌陷主要是由于过量抽取地下水或矿山疏干排水、地下采空、暴雨触发所致;工程塌陷主要是人类工程行为所致,其主要致灾因子包括排水疏干与突水（突泥）作用、人工加载、人工振动、人工开挖桩基、地表渗水、地铁等地下工程盾构掘进等。     

禹城市城乡用地结构和布局分析

统筹城乡用地、优化城乡用地结构和布局,既是节约和集约用地的重要途径,又是统筹城乡发展的客观需要。通过分析禹城市城乡用地结构和布局,提出优化城乡用地结构和布局的建议和对策,从而为制定合理的土地利用总体规划提供基本的依据。     

泥石流堆积物的粒度分布及其分形结构

泥石流堆积物主要由砾石、砂砾、粉粒和粘粒组成,组成泥石流堆积物的颗粒级配变幅很大,从直径大于数十米的巨砾到肉眼难以看见的几微米的胶体微粒均有分布,大小颗粒粒径之比可达106—107。泥石流堆积物颗粒具有明显的自相似性和无标度区间。本文以小江流域多处泥石流堆积物为研究对象,采用图解法全面分析了泥石流堆积物的粒度组成特征,根据分形理论计算了泥石流堆积物颗粒的分维值,对泥石流堆积物的分形特征进行探讨,并与泥石流堆积物粒度特征相联系,发现分维很好的反映了泥石流堆积物颗粒组成及其粒度分布特征。将泥石流堆积物颗粒分维与泥石流的粘性、形成年代等性质相联系,以找出它们彼此之间的关系。     

大民屯凹陷烃源岩有机质丰度的恢复

烃源岩有机质丰度的恢复具有重要的现实和理论意义。笔者在对比多种方法的基础上,对大民屯凹陷的烃源岩的有机质丰度进行了恢复。     

基于GIS的人口分布图的绘制研究——以辽阳市为例

主要论述传统的人口分布专题地图方法及其不足,阐述了人口分布与土地利用之间的关系,运用人口在不同用地类型上的分配的理论,模拟人口分布,根据辽阳市的土地利用情况以及人口数字准备来绘制人口分布图。     

Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

Changes in hydrogeological properties of the River Choushui alluvial fan aquifer due to the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan

Changes in hydrogeological properties of the River Choushui alluvial fan aquifer before and after the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan, have been identified using pumping tests. Three wells, SH2, YL2 and SC2, located in a compressional zone with high coseismic groundwater levels, were tested. The threshold of the aquifer deformation with respect to transmissivity (T) is greater than that with respect to storage coefficient (S). Decreases in the post-earthquake S are approximately 60% at SH2 and SC2, indicating aquifer compression after the Chi-Chi earthquake. Changes in the post-earthquake T range from 61% increase to 0.8% decrease. Moreover, results from anisotropy analysis of T at SC2 further illustrate that normal stresses induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake have consolidated soil particles. Soil particles dilated laterally after the earthquake, resulting in an increase of the equivalent T. The changes in hydrogeological properties have a considerable influence on spatiotemporal fluid pressure and horizontal groundwater movement, resulting in different amounts of drawdown during post-earthquake pumping.