一种利用浮标站资料改进海浪模式有效波高预报的方法

基于浮标站海浪历史数据,利用回归分析方法建立了海浪数值模式有效波高预报产品的一元二次回归方程订正统计模型。通过2017年7月1日-2018年10月10日期间业务试运行结果发现:订正方程能有效改善有效波高数值预报产品的预报精度,且预报时效越短订正效果越显著。其中,第6~11 h预报时效内的订正前后平均绝对误差值减小0.17~0. 241 m,第6~18 h预报时效内订正前后均方根误差减小幅度为0.103~0. 28 m。这说明应用订正统计模型对海浪模式输出产品进行订正,也是改进海浪模式预报准确率的一种有效途径。     

2000-2015年三江平原主要作物需水量征及影响因素分析

全生育期内作物需水量的研究是农业水资源有效利用和进行合理灌溉的重要依据。基于三江平原22个气象站点2000—2015年逐日气象观测资料及中国区域地面气象要素数据集,利用国际粮农组织 （FAO）Penman-Monteith模型和分段单值平均作物系数法,分别对三江平原水稻、玉米和大豆的作物需水量进行计算,分析作物需水量年际变化特征,采用通径分析法研究作物需水量的变化成因。结果表明：（1）三江平原16 a来年均参考作物蒸散量为537.4 mm,日均为 3.5 mm,呈波动减少趋势。（2）生长季内,水稻在分蘖期需水量最大,为177.1 mm,玉米在七叶期需水量最大,为99.7 mm,大豆在结荚期需水量最大,为96.1 mm;水稻、玉米和大豆的净灌溉需水量分别为195.4 mm、130.8 mm和72.2 mm,对灌溉的依赖程度水稻>玉米>大豆。（3）由通径分析结果可知,三江平原作物需水量的主要影响因素为净辐射、气温和日照时数。     

模糊聚类定权法对SLR定轨精度的影响

针对卫星激光测距(satellite laser ranging,SLR)精密定轨过程中存在的测站观测数据合理定权问题,将一种改进的模糊聚类算法引入到SLR观测数据定权中。基于国际激光测距服务(International Laser Ranging Service,ILRS)提供的全球SLR测站性能报告,对测站进行近实时滑动分类定权,改变SLR数据处理中权重的经验或者随意性选取模式。经过LAGEOS1卫星2014年1月至2016年12月3年全球SLR实测数据处理的测试。结果表明,当考虑LAGEOS标准点总数、LAGEOS标准点RMS值以及LAGEOS标准点合格率这3项测站质量控制因素确定的测站权值能最大限度地提高卫星定轨精度和观测数据的使用效率,对参与计算的365个3d弧段数据,91.46%弧段精度得到提高,平均提高约3.7mm,且每个测站的定轨残差RMS也得到了降低。这对于正在迈向毫米级测量精度的SLR技术至关重要。     

Wave run-up on bermed coastal structures

Reliable estimation of wave run-up is required for the effective and efficient design of coastal structures when flooding or wave overtopping volumes are an important consideration in the design process. In this study, a unified formula for the wave run-up on bermed structures has been developed using collected and existing data. As data on berm breakwaters was highly limited, physical model tests were conducted and the run-up was measured. Conventional governing parameters and influencing factors were then used to predict the dimensionless run-up level with 2% exceedance probability. The developed formula includes the effect of water depth which is required in understanding the influence of sea level rise and consequent changes of wave height to water depth ratio on the future hydraulic performance of the structures. The accuracy measures such as RMSE and Bias indicated that the developed formula is more accurate than the existing formulas. Additionally, the new formula was validated using field measurements and its superiority was observed when compared to the existing prediction formulas. Finally, the new design formula incorporating the partial safety factor was introduced as a design tool for engineers.     

利用大地水准面模型计算垂线偏差的方法及精度分析

根据大地水准面与垂线偏差的关系,设计合理的计算方案,给出利用大地水准面模型计算垂线偏差的简化公式,并通过模拟计算探讨大地水准面相对精度、取点间距和已知点选取及个数对计算结果的影响。利用GEOID12B模型分别计算GSVS2011、GSVS2014项目中各测站点和美国西部区域（40°~45°N,100°~105°W,分辨率为1′）的垂线偏差,并与GSVS项目垂线偏差实测值和DEFLEC12B模型值进行比较。结果表明,垂线偏差南北分量和东西分量的计算精度均优于±0.5″,说明利用相对精度为cm甚至亚cm级的大地水准面模型可获取较高精度的垂线偏差。     

长江口横沙东滩典型海堤越浪量现场和试验研究

越浪量是允许越浪海堤设计的重要参数。在对以往相关研究成果进行回顾和分析基础上,结合长江口横沙东滩促淤圈围五期工程现场波浪和越浪量实测资料,通过对横沙东滩典型断面型式进行整体和断面物理模型试验,研究结构各参数对越浪量的影响,进而提出适合长江口海堤的越浪量计算公式。公式计算结果与试验数据吻合良好,与Van der Meer公式相比具有较好的一致性。     

淹没植物对河道糙率的影响

基于河道水动力及植物柔性变形分析,建立淹没状态下的植物河道糙率计算的理论关系,同时,利用试验资料及理论分析成果,进一步获得了植物河道糙率的附加值,借此可以分析与评价河道植物对水流阻力的影响程度.     

Estimation of the wave-related ripple characteristics and induced bed shear stress

A large data set on ripples was collected and examined. A set of new formulas for the prediction of the ripple characteristics is proposed with an emphasis on the disappearance of the ripples. The ripple wavelength was observed to be proportional to the bottom wave excursion but also to be a function of the grain-related Shields parameter and wave period parameter introduced by Mogridge et al. (1994). The ripple steepness was found to be nearly constant for orbital ripples, and with a sharp decrease for suborbital ripples. Two empirical functions are added including the effects of the critical Shields parameters (inception of transport and inception of sheet flow), i.e. giving the boundaries for the ripple existence's domain. The proposed formulas yield better prediction capabilities compared to the previously published formulas, especially when ripples are washed out. The effect of the ripple characteristics on the roughness height and the calculation of the bed shear stress is also discussed. It appeared that the bed shear stress calculation is more sensitive to the empirical coefficient a_r introduced in the estimation of the ripple-induced roughness height or to the limits of existence of the ripples than the ripple characteristics themselves.     

Extending self-organizing maps for supervised classification of remotely sensed data

An extended self-organizing map for supervised classification is proposed in this paper. Unlike other traditional SOMs, the model has an input layer, a Kohonen layer, and an output layer. The number of neurons in the input layer depends on the dimensionality of input patterns. The number of neurons in the output layer equals the number of the desired classes. The number of neurons in the Kohonen layer may be a few to several thousands, which depends on the complexity of classification problems and the classification precision. Each training sample is expressed by a pair of vectors ： an input vector and a class codebook vector. When a training sample is input into the model, Kohonen＇s competitive learning rule is applied to selecting the winning neuron from the Kohouen layer and the weight coefficients connecting all the neurons in the input layer with both the winning neuron and its neighbors in the Kohonen layer are modified to be closer to the input vector, and those connecting all the neurons around the winning neuron within a certain diameter in the Kohonen layer with all the neurons in the output layer are adjusted to be closer to the class codebook vector. If the number of training sam- ples is sufficiently large and the learning epochs iterate enough times, the model will be able to serve as a supervised classifier. The model has been tentatively applied to the supervised classification of multispectral remotely sensed data. The author compared the performances of the extended SOM and BPN in remotely sensed data classification. The investigation manifests that the extended SOM is feasible for supervised classification.     

无舵翼水下机器人路径跟踪控制研究

针对无舵翼水下机器人的各种不同任务要求下的路径跟踪控制进行研究。通过模拟人的运动行为,建立了虚拟避碰声纳模型。根据地形跟踪的方法提出基于虚拟声纳的路径跟踪控制方法,并通过考虑纵向速度对于其他各个自由度运动的影响设计了运动控制器。通过海上试验验证了所提出的路径跟踪控制方法对于无舵翼水下机器人是可以满足实际需要的。