Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Nepal Himalaya: A Manageable Hazard?

Within the past fifteen years, glacial lake outburst floods have become an activetopic of discussion within the development community focused on Nepal. Suchfloods endanger thousands of people, hundreds of villages, and basic infrastructuresuch as trails and bridges. The flood risk is also a major impediment to hydroelectricdevelopment in several river basins. Unlike most other mountain hazards in Nepal,reducing the possibility of outburst floods is technically feasible. The first attemptwithin Nepal to reduce the hazard of one lake by artificially lowering its water levelwas partially completed in June 2000. Completing this task and beginning work onother hazardous lakes will require difficult decisions about risk by downstream residentsand substantial investment from the international aid community.     

Deep to shallow lacustrine evaporites in the Libros Gypsum (southern Teruel Basin, Miocene, NE Spain): an occurrence of pelletal gypsum rhythmites

ABSTRACT A number of non‐marine evaporite units composed of primary gypsum were deposited in saline lakes that developed in the southern Teruel Basin (NE Spain) during the Miocene. In the basin depocentre, a continuum of lacustrine evaporite lithofacies influenced by the activity of organisms is displayed. The Libros Gypsum was deposited in a deep lake, in which water stratification became unstable with progressive shoaling. Rhythmites, composed of laminae of pelletal gypsum and laminae of very fine lenticular gypsum crystals mixed with siliceous microorganisms, formed in addition to gypsum turbidites, intraformational gypsum breccias and slump structures. The pelletal laminae originated from the faecal activity of animals (crustaceans?) ingesting gypsum crystallites in the lake water during episodes of maximum evaporation, whereas the laminae of very fine lenticular gypsum mixed with microorganisms accumulated during episodes of relative dilution. In the wide marginal zones of the basin, the Libros Gypsum unit consists of massive to thin‐bedded bioturbated gypsum and thin‐bedded clotted gypsum, which formed in intermediate to very shallow (palustrine) water depths. The bioturbated gypsum lithofacies were produced by the action of diverse organisms, presumably worms and coleopterans, and chironomid larvae to a lesser extent; the massive lithofacies precipitated in very shallow water; and the thin‐bedded lithofacies formed in shallow to deeper settings. The thin‐bedded clotted gypsum is a relatively deep facies that may have diverse origins (e.g. bioturbation, compaction, disruption of soft sediments and early diagenesis). There is a well‐developed metre‐scale cyclicity in the marginal lake sequences, which is not observed in the inner lake deposits. This suggests a depth control in the various lacustrine subenvironments to record cyclic evaporitic processes. The isotopic composition of the gypsum indicates early sulphate‐reducing bacterial activity in the bottom of the lake and suggests that the sulphate was derived from the chemical recycling of Triassic evaporites of the country rocks.     

A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.     

试论未来全球气候变化

未来全球气候变化是人们关注的重大课题。从内蒙古盐湖近２０ｋａ气候演变的研究可知，地质时期和历史时期气候波动变化是有规律可循的。用已经了解的这种变化规律来予测未来气候变化是有价值的。研究表明，未来１ｋａ左右全球为暖期，之后将进入下一个冰期。     

Colonization and evolution of lakes on the central Norwegian coast following deglaciation and land uplift 9500 to 7800 years B.P.

Invertebrate colonization of lakes following the uplift of land from the sea was studied in four lakes, currently situated between 39 and 24 m a.s.l., on the central Norwegian coast. The lakes were isolated from the sea between 9500 and 7700 years B.P. Animal and algal remains picked from core samples showed that the first colonizers preserved as fossils were usually members of the Chironomidae, Daphnidae/Chydoridae, Acarina, Porifera (Ephydatia mülleri and Spongilla lacustris), Bryozoa (Cristatella mucedo and Plumatella spp.) and Charophyta (Chara sp.). Of the chironomids, the genus Chironomus was present in the oldest lacustrine layers of all four lakes, but other genera recorded at the marine/lacustrine boundary were Dicrotendipes, Procladius (?), Einfeldia, Microtendipes, and Glyptotendipes. Remains of the caddis fly family Limnephilidae were also present in the earliest lacustrine sediments in Kvennavatnet and Kvernavatnet. The oldest invertebrate fauna is typical for mesotrophic lakes. However, chironomids and mites have been present in this area from at least about 10?500 years B.P. A diverse chironomid community was established between 300 and 800 years after isolation from the sea at Kvernavatnet on the island of Hitra, while only between 80 and 120 years passed before a comparably diverse community developed at Kvennavatnet on the mainland coast. A similar development of the invertebrate fauna occurred in Kvennavatnet, Kvernavatnet and Storkuvatnet. However, Litjvatnet deviates greatly from the ‘normal’ pattern because a tsunami disturbed the bottom sediments and fauna. The tsunami, a gigantic sea wave, was caused by a submarine slide from the Norwegian continental slope. It reached Litjvatnet, today located 24 m a.s.l., but was not traced in Storkuvatnet at 30 m a.s.l. This event happened about 7200 years B.P.     

Diatoms in sediments of perennially ice-covered Lake Hoare, and implications for interpreting lake history in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica

Diatom assemblages in surficial sediments, sediment cores, sediment traps, and inflowing streams of perennially ice-covered Lake Hoare, South Victorialand, Antarctica were examined to determine the distribution of diatom taxa, and to ascertain if diatom species composition has changed over time. Lake Hoare is a closed-basin lake with an area of 1.8 km², maximum depth of 34 m, and mean depth of 14 m, although lake level has been rising at a rate of 0.09 m yr^-1 in recent decades. The lake has an unusual regime of sediment deposition: coarse grained sediments accumulate on the ice surface and are deposited episodically on the lake bottom. Benthic microbial mats are covered in situ by the coarse episodic deposits, and the new surfaces are recolonized. Ice cover prevents wind-induced mixing, creating the unique depositional environment in which sediment cores record the history of a particular site, rather than a lake-wide integration. Shallow-water (<1 m) diatom assemblages (Stauroneis anceps, Navicula molesta, Diadesmis contenta var. parallela, Navicula peraustralis) were distinct from mid-depth (4–16 m) assemblages (Diadesmis contenta, Luticola muticopsis fo. reducta, Stauroneis anceps, Diadesmis contenta var. parallela, Luticola murrayi) and deep-water (26–31 m) assemblages (Luticola murrayi, Luticola muticopsis fo. reducta, Navicula molesta). Analysis of a sediment core (30 cm long, from 11 m water depth) from Lake Hoare revealed two abrupt changes in diatom assemblages. The upper section of the sediment core contained the greatest biomass of benthic microbial mat, as well as the greatest total abundance and diversity of diatoms. Relative abundances of diatoms in this section are similar to the surficial samples from mid-depths. An intermediate zone contained less organic material and lower densities of diatoms. The bottom section of core contained the least amount of microbial mat and organic material, and the lowest density of diatoms. The dominant process influencing species composition and abundance of diatom assemblages in the benthic microbial mats is episodic deposition of coarse sediment from the ice surface.     

从碱湖沉积和孢粉组合看内蒙古伊盟地区近5ka以来的古植被古气候变迁

内蒙古伊盟地区哈马尔太碱湖沉积特征和孢粉组合特征反映了该区近５ｋａ以来的古植被古气候变迁。研究表明，此期间该区植被由阔叶、灌木草原变为疏树灌木草原，最后变为荒漠草原。在这５ｋａ中存在两次暖期两次冷期，近１．６ｋａ以来以冷干为主。湿润气候只存在于４．５～５．５ｋａＢ．Ｐ．，气候总的趋势是由较湿润变干旱直至干燥。     

Solar modulation of cosmogenic nuclide production over the last millennium: comparison between C and Be records

For about the last 30 years it has been recognized that the high frequency component of the tree rings ¹⁴C/¹²C record is dominated by the modulation of the cosmic ray flux by the solar wind. In particular, it has been demonstrated that the three most recent periods of low sunspot occurrence were characterized by high values of atmospheric ¹⁴C/¹²C. During the last millennium other periods of high ¹⁴C/¹²C values were observed but their solar origin is still debatable. In the present work we compare these fluctuations with an independent record of cosmogenic ¹⁰Be measured in ice from the South Pole to check the solar origin of the observed ¹⁴C/¹²C variations. In order to compare quantitatively the results obtained on ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C, it is necessary to take into account the different behaviour of these two cosmogenic isotopes, and especially the damping effect of the carbon cycle in the case of ¹⁴C. As an input to a 12-box numerical model we used the relative fluctuations of the ¹⁰Be concentrations record measured in South Pole ice and converted it into a synthetic ¹⁴C record. We took into account the fact that ¹⁰Be modulation is enhanced in polar regions due to the orientation of the geomagnetic field. As expected, the fluctuations of the modelled ¹⁴C record are much smaller (a factor of 20) than those observed for the raw ¹⁰Be record. In addition, the variations are smoother and shifted in time by a few decades. The ¹⁰Be-based ¹⁴C variations closely resemble the ¹⁴C measurements obtained on tree rings (R = 0.81). In particular, it is easy to identify periods of maximal ¹⁴C/¹²C which correspond to solar activity minima centred at about 1060, 1320 (Wolf), 1500 (Spörer), 1690 (Maunder) and 1820 (Dalton) yr A.D. Cross-correlation calculations suggest that there is no significant lag between the ¹⁰Be-based ¹⁴C and the tree-ring ¹⁴C records. Our study strongly suggests the dominance of the solar modulation on the cosmonuclide production variations during the last millennium.     

Hypolimnetic density currents traced by sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)

The artificial tracer sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) has been used to study the density-driven deep water exchange between two sill-separated basins of Lake Lucerne, Gersauersee and Urnersee. The sources of the density gradients between the two basins are (1) salinity differences between the major inlets due to the different geology of their drainage areas, and (2) temperature differences due to spatial variation of wind forcing. Wind speeds are generally larger in Urnersee, especially in spring during the so-called Föhn events, when winds blow from the south. In contrast, Gersauersee is protected form these winds. In spring 1989, a total of 630 g of SF₆ was released at 80 to 120 m depth in the small Treib Basin located between Urnersee and Gersauersee. During about 100 days the distribution of SF₆ in the lake was determined by gaschromatography. Two models are used to quantify the exchange flow, (1) a one-box mass balance model for SF₆ in the deep part of Treib Basin, and (2) a one-dimensional diffusion/advection model describing the temporal and vertical temperature variation in Urnersee. According to the first model, the flow into the deep hypolimnion of Urnersee, decreases from 21·10⁶ m³·d^?1 at the end of March to about 8·10⁶ m³·d^?1 in late April. The second model yields similar flow rates. The decrease of the flow rate during spring, confirmed by both approaches, is consistent (1) with the decreasing strength of the density gradient above the sill during spring and early summer, and (2) with hydrographic information collected in Lake Lucerne during other years.     

Comparison of Cu and Zn cycling in eutrophic lakes with oxic and anoxic hypolimnion

Data on the cycling of Cu and Zn in two eutrophic lakes are presented: Lake Greifen that becomes seasonally anoxic in its hypolimnion and Lake Sempach that is aerated during winter and oxygenated during summer. They suggest that hypolimnetic oxygenation 1) enhances the release of copper from the sediment but 2) also accelerates the entrapment and deposition of Cu and Zn by freshly formed Mn- and Fe-oxides.