Spatial analysis of geometric design consistency and road sight distance

Because of the high number of crashes occurring on highways, it is necessary to intensify the search for new tools that help in understanding their causes. This research explores the use of a geographic information system (GIS) for an integrated analysis, taking into account two accident-related factors: design consistency (DC) (based on vehicle speed) and available sight distance (ASD) (based on visibility). Both factors require specific GIS software add-ins, which are explained. Digital terrain models (DTMs), vehicle paths, road centerlines, a speed prediction model, and crash data are integrated in the GIS. The usefulness of this approach has been assessed through a study of more than 500 crashes. From a regularly spaced grid, the terrain (bare ground) has been modeled through a triangulated irregular network (TIN). The length of the roads analyzed is greater than 100 km. Results have shown that DC and ASD could be related to crashes in approximately 4% of cases. In order to illustrate the potential of GIS, two crashes are fully analyzed: a car rollover after running off road on the right side and a rear-end collision of two moving vehicles. Although this procedure uses two software add-ins that are available only for ArcGIS, the study gives a practical demonstration of the suitability of GIS for conducting integrated studies of road safety.     

Plane symmetric inhomogeneous cosmological models with a perfect fluid in General Relativity II

We investigate a class of solutions of Einstein equations for the plane symmetric perfect fluid case. If these solutions have shear, they must necessarily be non-static. Some physical and geometric properties of the models are also discussed.      

Effects of Interpolation Errors on the Analysis of DEMs

A suite of methods to interpolate a digital elevation model from a ground survey was evaluated with respect to precision and ability to maintain the shape of the original height data. This shape reliability was evaluated by comparing the spatial patterns of secondary terrain parameters derived from the interpolated elevation data. The best interpolation method for this study area was found to be a spline interpolation, which is somewhat contradictory to findings in the literature. The error and uncertainty found in the results for terrain analysis and modelling tools is important and sometimes distressingly high, even for some frequently used local or context operations on altitude. Positional operations, in which the output is determined more by the position in the topographic structure, seem to give more reliable results. Therefore, the results obtained by terrain analysis and spatial modelling need careful interpretation. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring space-time models for West Nile virus mosquito abundance data

This paper explores variant space-time models for log-transformed West Nile virus (WNv) mosquito data, which explicitly account for both local environmental conditions and complex dependent structures. Four space-time models take various forms to accommodate correlated structure in space and time, nested data, and nonstationarity. The average WNv mosquito abundance is captured by a global trend across all four models, but different model assumptions are imposed on the stochastic component of the proposed models: a simple multivariate linear regression model with independent and identical errors, a site-specific linear mixed model with temporally correlated errors, a week-specific linear mixed model with spatially correlated errors, and a local space-time kriging model. In a case study, the predictive performance of the four models was assessed using data collected in 2007 and 2008 for the Greater Toronto Area by the mosquito surveillance program of Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-term Care: the local space-time kriging model outperforms others, but closely followed by a site-specific linear mixed model with temporal correlation. Our findings suggest that the predictive accuracy of space-time WNv mosquito abundance models can be enhanced by explicitly taking into account spatiotemporal correlation, nonstationarity, and the data collection procedure, such as surveillance design, based on sound understanding of mosquito behavior and population dynamics.     

MODELLING RAINFALL-RUNOFF FROM LARGE CATCHMENT TO BASIN SCALE: THE GOULBURN VALLEY,VICTORIA

A lumped parameter dynamic rainfall-runoff model, IHACRES, is applied to the large upland area (more than 4500 km²) of the Goulburn Valley Basin, Victoria, Australia to predict streamflow under different climatic conditions. This paper presents the first evaluation of a rainfall–runoff model at large catchment scale, which is comprehensive in terms of the number of catchments investigated and the number of calibration and simulation periods used. The basin is subdivided into 12 catchments (from 100 to 700 km²), each of which is calibrated separately. High values of model efficiency and low bias are consistently obtained for different calibration sub-periods for all catchments in the basin. Simulation or so-called validation tests are used to select the best models for each catchment. This allows simulation of the water regime during long historical (approximately 90 year) periods when only climatological (rainfall and temperature) data were available. This procedure is extremely important for the estimation of the effect of climate variability and of the possible impact of climate change on the hydrological regime in the region and, in particular, for supporting irrigation management of the basin. Analysis of a composite catchment (2417 km²) and its five separate subcatchments indicates that the information content in the rainfall–streamflow data is independent of catchment size. Dynamic modelling of the daily water balance at the macroscale is limited principally by the adequacy of the precipitation gauging network. When a good estimate of areal precipitation is available for a catchment, it is not necessary to consider subcatchment-scale variability for modelling if the only interest is the daily discharge and evaporation losses from the catchment.     

Performance of Convective Parameterization Schemes in Asia Using RegCM:Simulations in Three Typical Regions for the Period 1998–2002

This study discusses the sensitivity of convective parameterization schemes(CPSs) in the Regional Climate Model(version 4.3)(Reg CM4.3) over East/South Asia. The simulations using different CPSs in Reg CM are compared to discover a suitable scheme for this region, as the performance of different schemes is greatly influenced by region and seasonality. Over Southeast China and the Bay of Bengal, the Grell scheme exhibits the lowest RMSEs of summer precipitation compared to observed data. Moreover, the Emanuel over land and Grell over ocean(ELGO) scheme enhances the simulation, in comparison with any single CPS(Grell/Emanuel) over Western Ghats, Sri Lanka, and Southeast India. Over the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain(3H) and Tibetan Plateau(TP) regions of China, the Tiedtke scheme simulates the more reasonable summer precipitation with high correlation coefficient and comparable amplitude. Especially, it reproduces a minimum convective precipitation bias of 8 mm d-1and the lowest RMSEs throughout the year over East/South Asia. Furthermore, for seasonal variation of precipitation, the Tiedtke scheme results are closer to the observed data over the 3H and TP regions. However, none of the CPSs is able to simulate the seasonal variation over North Pakistan(NP). In comparison with previous research, the results of this study support the Grell scheme over South Asia. However, the Tiedtke scheme shows superiority for the 3H, TP and NP regions. The thicker PBL, less surface latent heat flux, the unique ability of deep convection and the entrainment process in the Tiedtke scheme are responsible for reducing the wet bias.     

Empirical nonergodic shaking scenarios based on spatial correlation models: An application to central Italy

This paper provides a new methodological framework to generate empirical ground shaking scenarios, designed for engineering applications and civil protection planning. The methodology is useful both to reconstruct the ground motion pattern of past events and to generate future shaking scenarios, in regions where strong‐motion datasets from multiple events and multiple stations are available. The proposed methodology combines (1) an ad‐hoc nonergodic ground motion model (GMM) with (2) a spatial correlation model for the source region‐, site‐, and path‐systematic residual terms, and (3) a model of the remaining aleatory error to take into account for directivity effects. The associated variability is a function of the type of scenario generated (bedrock or site, past or future event) and it is minimal for source areas where several events have occurred and for sites where recordings are available. In order to develop the region‐specific fully nonergodic GMM and to compute robust estimation of the residual terms, the approach is calibrated on a highly dense dataset compiled for the area of central Italy. Example tests demonstrate the validity of the approach, which allows to simulate acceleration response spectra at unsampled sites, as well as to capture peculiar physical features of ground motion patterns in the region. The proposed approach could be usefully adopted for data‐driven simulations of ground shaking maps, as alternative or complementary tool to physic‐based and stochastic‐based approaches.     

Post‐glacial vegetation reconstruction and a possible 8200 cal. yr BP event from the low arctic of continental Nunavut,Canada

Climate models suggest that the global warming during the early to mid‐Holocene may have partly resulted from the northward advance of the northern treeline and subsequent reduction of the planetary albedo. We investigated the Holocene vegetation history of low arctic continental Nunavut, Canada, from a radiocarbon‐dated sediment core from TK‐2 Lake, a small‐lake ca. 200 km north of the limit of the forest‐tundra. The pollen and loss‐on‐ignition data indicate the presence of dwarf shrub tundra in the region since the beginning of organic sedimentation at ca. 9000 cal. yr BP with dominance of Betula, especially since 8700 cal. yr BP. At 8100–7900 cal. yr BP the dominance of the shrub tundra was punctuated by a transient decline of Betula and coincident increases of Ericaceae undiff., Vaccinium‐type, and Gramineae. This suggests an abrupt disturbance of the Betula glandulosa population, approximately simultaneously with the sudden 8200 cal. yr BP event in the North Atlantic. However, in the absence of other sites studied in the area, linkage to the 8200 cal. yr BP event remains tentative. The lack of any evidence of forest‐tundra in the region constrains the northern limit of the mid‐Holocene advance of the forest‐tundra boundary in central northern Canada. Consequently, our results show that the climate models imposing a mid‐Holocene advance of the limit of the forest‐tundra to the arctic coast of Canada may have overestimated the positive climatic feedback effects that can result from the replacement of tundra by the boreal forest. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sediment sources and transport pathways in a rural catchment,Herefordshire, UK

The relative significance of primary and secondary suspended sediment sources has been identified in a small (15 km²) agricultural catchment through the application of a linear unmixing model using mineral magnetic, geochemical and radionuclide signatures of fine sediments. Roads appear to be important as a secondary source of suspended sediment and in the conveyance of topsoils to the river channel. Roads also alter the source signatures of sediment in transport, especially that derived from agricultural topsoils. Modelling suggests that c. 30% of the suspended sediment collected from suspended sediment traps in the River Leadon were derived from, or transported via, roads. Relative contributions from primary sources of c. 43% and c. 27% were estimated from a combined (subsoil and channel bank) subsurface source, and a combined (arable and grassland) topsoil source, respectively. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.