Spatial and temporal predictions of soil moisture dynamics,runoff, variable source areas and evapotranspiration for plynlimon,mid-wales

For many years hydrologists have tried to build physically realistic models which are still simple enough to be fitted to a range of observations made in the field. This is an ongoing process which will become even more difficult as the quality and variety of field and remotely sensed data improves. Hence models must be able to predict soil moisture patterns in time and in space as well as the outflow hydrograph. The model presented here (TOPMODEL) aims to predict the nature of variable source areas in a way that reflects their dynamics over space and time. All component processes are described and shown in operation. As TOPMODEL and similar models have a growing popularity, this paper can be seen as a demonstration of the model's predictive capabilities. The model is applied to the catchments of Plynlimon, mid-Wales for 1984, 1985 and 1986 data sets. The model has been thoroughly tested and cross-validated against independent data sets for different time periods, for a separate catchment, for internal gauges and for wet and dry periods. The resulting predicted soil moisture patterns show a small, semi-permanent variable source area that has the ability during large storms to expand dynamically over short time periods. Spatial predictions of evapotranspiration are also shown which reflect the influence of soil moisture patterns on this process. The weakest component of the model is the representation of root zone evaporation and how this pre-sets the antecedent condition of the catchment during long dry periods.     

TECHNIQUES OF CONSTRUCTING REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES: ACHIEVEMENTS

The development of any analytical method should have to experience at least four stages: its initial status, growth, mature and declining. However, although the regional input-output analysis has been widely applied for more than forty years, it is still one of the most important approach in regional economic analysis and forecast at present in the world. This is due to the never ended modifications and its great potentials. In this paper, we review the historical development of the regional input-output analysis.     

Classification problems of samples of finite mixtures of compositions

A discriminant technique based on mixture models is presented to be applied when observations are a sample of a mixture of compositions with each component following an additive logistic normal distribution on the d-dimensional simplex. The efficiency of this discriminant technique is compared empirically with the efficiency of the standard discriminant technique based on logcontrast. Simulated compositional data and a real dataset are used to carry out these comparisons.     

Formulation and application of the unsaturated/saturated catchment models SUSCAT and WEC‐C

This paper describes the formulation and application of a coupled unsaturated/saturated model framework developed to investigate the impact of mining on catchment water yield and groundwater dynamics. The model conceptualization was implemented in both a finite‐element (SUSCAT) and finite‐difference (WEC‐C) solution scheme and found to give similar results. The model framework simulates a coupled surface‐water and groundwater system in which a physically based solution scheme was used to simulate one‐dimensional movement through the unsaturated zone, and a distributed model was used to simulate two‐dimensional saturated groundwater flow. Each soil column comprises a series of layers, each layer being connected to adjacent cells. Subsurface lateral flow is considered when any cell within a layer develops a saturated thickness. Simulation results presented are based on a catchment in the Darling Range, Western Australia that was progressively mined and subsequently rehabilitated. The results predicted the groundwater system beneath the mine areas to have a peak rise owing to mining of between 2 and 4 m. Six years after mining, and following vegetation rehabilitation, the groundwater rise had reduced to 1 m above simulated unmined levels. The corresponding streamflow increase as a result of mining was estimated to peak at 21 mm/year and declined to 7·4 mm/year eight years after revegetation of the mined areas. The simulated groundwater response and streamflow results derived from both models were found to be consistent with observed data. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of a data‐based mechanistic modelling (DBM) approach for predicting runoff generation in semi‐arid regions

This paper addresses the application of a data‐based mechanistic (DBM) modelling approach using transfer function models (TFMs) with non‐linear rainfall filtering to predict runoff generation from a semi‐arid catchment (795 km²) in Tanzania. With DBM modelling, time series of rainfall and streamflow were allowed to suggest an appropriate model structure compatible with the data available. The model structures were evaluated by looking at how well the model fitted the data, and how well the parameters of the model were estimated. The results indicated that a parallel model structure is appropriate with a proportion of the runoff being routed through a fast flow pathway and the remainder through a slow flow pathway. Finally, the study employed a Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology to evaluate the parameter sensitivity and predictive uncertainty based on the feasible parameter ranges chosen from the initial analysis of recession curves and calibration of the TFM. Results showed that parameters that control the slow flow pathway are relatively more sensitive than those that control the fast flow pathway of the hydrograph. Within the GLUE framework, it was found that multiple acceptable parameter sets give a range of predictions. This was found to be an advantage, since it allows the possibility of assessing the uncertainty in predictions as conditioned on the calibration data and then using that uncertainty as part of the decision‐making process arising from any rainfall‐runoff modelling project. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sub-grid scale parameterisation of 2D hydrodynamic models of inundation in the urban area

This paper presents preliminary results from a study considering the parameterisation of coarse-grid 2D flood models to take into account sub-grid scale flow patterns occurring in the urban area. A simulation of a severe flood in an urbanized coastal floodplain is first run using a fine grid that can resolve the flow around and between buildings. Next, the same model is run again using the same underlying topography, although stripped from any buildings, and a set of 7 values of the roughness parameter (Manning’s n), all larger than (or equal to) the value used in the original run. A further set of simulations is carried out using a five-fold increased grid cell size. It is found that while it may be possible to model the overall effects of the buildings using strongly increased roughness parameter values, using a coarse grid otherwise has implications related to the loss of information about the site topography that results in flood flow routes being incorrectly modelled.     

Implicit numerical integration for a kinematic hardening soil plasticity model

Soil models based on kinematic hardening together with elements of bounding surface plasticity, provide a means of introducing some memory of recent history and stiffness variation in the predicted response of soils. Such models provide an improvement on simple elasto‐plastic models in describing soil behaviour under non‐monotonic loading. Routine use of such models requires robust numerical integration schemes. Explicit integration of highly non‐linear models requires extremely small steps in order to guarantee convergence. Here, a fully implicit scheme is presented for a simple kinematic hardening extension of the Cam clay soil model. The algorithm is based on the operator split methodology and the implicit Euler backward integration scheme is proposed to integrate the rate form of the constitutive relations. This algorithm maintains a quadratic rate of asymptotic convergence when used with a Newton–Raphson iterative procedure. Various strain‐driven axisymmetric triaxial paths are simulated in order to demonstrate the efficiency and good performance of the proposed algorithm. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Vegetation characteristics and the prediction of runoff: Analysis of an experiment in the New Forest,Hampshire

Vegetation characteristics have not been sufficiently utilized in catchment runoff models. An analysis of storm hydrograph data from nested subareas of the Highland Water catchment, New Forest, U.K., indicates that depth of runoff and peak discharge from areas under heathland cover is substantially greater than from areas under woodland cover at several spatial scales. The significance of heath vegetation composition in the identification of runoff contributing areas is illustrated by an analysis of vegetation composition, water table depth, baseflow discharge and storm runoff from areas predominantly covered by heathland. Methods are proposed to employ the hydrological characteristics of heathland to refine and develop the Flood Studies Approach to discharge estimation in ungauged heathland catchments. Such an approach is greatly facilitated by the use of remotely-sensed data.     

Flood hydrograph attenuation induced by a reservoir system: analysis with a distributed rainfall‐runoff model

Spatially distributed hydrologic models can be effectively utilized for flood event simulation over basins where a complex system of reservoirs affecting the natural flow regime is present. Flood peak attenuation through mountain reservoirs can, in fact, mitigate the impact of major floods in flood‐prone areas of the lower river valley. Assessment of this effect for a complex reservoir system is performed with a spatially distributed hydrologic model where the surface runoff formation and the hydraulic routing through each reservoir and the river system are performed at a fine spatial and time resolution. The Toce River basin is presented as a case study, because of the presence of 14 active hydroelectric dams that affect the natural flow regime. A recent extreme flood event is simulated using a multi‐realization kriging method for modelling the spatial distribution of rainfall. A sensitivity analysis of the key elements of the distributed hydrologic model is also performed. The flood hydrograph attenuation is assessed. Several possible reservoir storage conditions are used to characterize the initial condition of each reservoir. The results demonstrate how a distributed hydrologic model can contribute to defining strategies for reservoir management in flood mitigation. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.