On CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> fluid flow and heat transfer behavior in the subsurface,following leakage from a geologic storage reservoir

Geologic storage of CO₂ is expected to produce plumes of large areal extent, and some leakage may occur along fractures, fault zones, or improperly plugged pre-existing wellbores. A review of physical and chemical processes accompanying leakage suggests a potential for self-enhancement. The numerical simulations presented here confirm this expectation, but reveal self-limiting features as well. It seems unlikely that CO₂ leakage could trigger a high-energy run-away discharge, a so-called “pneumatic eruption,” but present understanding is insufficient to rule out this possibility. The most promising avenue for increasing understanding of CO₂ leakage behavior is the study of natural analogues.     

Flood hazard delineation combining geomorphological and hydrological methods: an example in the Northern Iberian Peninsula

Flood mapping requires the combination and integration of geomorphological and hydrological-hydraulic methods; however, despite this, there is very little scientific literature that compares and validates both methods. Two types of analysis are addressed in the present article. On the one hand, maps of flood plains have been elaborated using geomorphological evidence and historical flood data in the mountainous area of northwestern Spain, covering an area of more then 232 km² of floodplains. On the other hand, a hydrometeorological model has been developed (Clark semidistributed unit hydrograph) in the Sarria River basin (155 km², NW Spain). This basin is not gauged, hence the model was subjected to a goodness-of-fit test of its parameter (curve number) by means of Monte Carlo simulation. The peak flows obtained by means of the hydrological model were used for hydraulic modeling (one-phase, one-dimensional and steady flow) in a 4 km² urban stretch of the river bed. The delineation of surface areas affected by floods since 1918, as well as those analyzed subsequent to the geomorphological study, reveals a high degree of reliability in the delineation of the flooded areas with frequent recurrence intervals (<50 years). If we compare these flooded surface areas with the estimate obtained by the hydrological-hydraulic method we can see that the latter method overestimates the extent of the surface water by 144% for very frequent recurrence intervals (>10 years) and underestimates it as the recurrence interval increases, by up to 80% less floodplain for exceptional events (>500 years). Finally, a management map is put forth combining the most reliable results available by integrating both methods. Originally presented at the Sixth International Conference on Geomorphology.     

Numerical modeling of tide-surge interaction along Orissa coast of India

The Orissa coast of India is one of the most vulnerable regions of extreme sea levels associated with severe tropical cyclones. There was extensive loss of life and property due to the October 1999 super cyclone, which devastated large part of the Orissa coast. The shallow nature of the head bay, presence of a large number of deltas formed by major rivers of Orissa such as Mahanadi and Dhamra, and high tidal range are responsible for storm surge flooding in the region. Specifically, rising and falling tidal phases influence the height, duration, and arrival time of peak surge along the coast. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the tide-surge interaction during the 1999 Orissa cyclone by using nonlinear vertically integrated numerical models. The pure tidal solution for the head bay region of the Bay of Bengal provides the initial condition for the fine resolution nested grid Orissa model. However, the feedback from the Orissa model does not affect the head bay model as the study provides a one-way interaction. Numerical experiments are performed to study the tide-surge interaction by considering various relative phases of the tidal waves with the surge-wave produced by 1999 Orissa cyclone. The comparison, although utilizing only the limited estimates of tidal data, appears adequate to assert that the principal features are reproduced correctly.     

Ground motion estimation during the Kashmir earthquake of 8th October 2005

In this article, analytical methods have been used to estimate ground motion during the 8 October 2005, Kashmir earthquake. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at several stations in the epicentral region have been estimated by empirical analytical source mechanism models. As an alternate analysis, PGA estimates have also been obtained using the stochastic finite fault seismological model. The estimated PGAs are compared with that obtained from damage values. A PGA contour map in the near-source region is provided. It is found that very near to the epicenter, PGA would have reached more than 1 g. It is demonstrated that empirical analytical models can be effectively used to estimate ground motion due to rupture of active faults.     

陆面过程中稳定水同位素逐日变化的数学模拟——引入稳定同位素效应的CLM实例分析

将稳定同位素效应引入CLM(Community Land Model),并对巴西马瑙斯站在平衡年的稳定水同位素的逐日变化进行模拟和分析.结果表明: 降水、水汽和地表径流中δ18O存在明显的季节变化,并与相应的水量存在显著的负相关关系,但凝结物中δ18O与地面凝结量存在显著的正相关关系,蒸发水汽中δ18O与蒸发量之间无显著的相关关系.受土壤贮水削峰功能的影响,表层土壤和根区水中δ18O的季节变化全无.植被层蒸发水汽中稳定同位素的丰度与大气的干湿程度存在密切联系: 当降水量少时,大气干燥,植被层的蒸发较少,植被蒸发中δ18O较高;当降水量较大时,空气湿润,植被层的蒸发量较大,蒸发中δ18O则较低.植被蒸腾中δ18O的变化与源区水体中δ18O的变化保持一致,尤其是与根区水中的δ18O.由于地下径流直接源自根区水的补充,因此,地下径流中δ18O等于根区水中的δ18O.模拟结果还显示,降水MWL (大气水线)的梯度项和常数项均比全球平均MWL略偏小.尽管主要来自降水的贡献,但地表径流和植被层水体的MWLs与降水MWL存在较大的差异,这一方面与两类水体在蒸发过程中的稳定同位素的富集作用有关,另一方面与CLM模拟的水量有关.大气水汽线与降水的MWL的梯度值相近,说明大气水汽与降水近似处于稳定同位素平衡状态.另外,模拟的地面的凝结线与植被层的凝结线均与全球大气水线相近,且具有非常高相关程度,说明CLM的模拟是合理的.     

滑坡体三维地质建模与可视化分析

针对滑坡地质研究的自身特点,提出了面向滑坡地质体三维建模的NURBS-BRep混合数据结构和地质结构单元实体构造技术.通过对滑坡基础地质数据的预处理、滑坡数字地形和滑动面的三维建模、地质结构面的系统构造、地质结构体的生成和显示,形成了一套完整的滑坡三维地质模型的构建方法.将该方法应用于某水库滑坡,建立了相应的三维滑坡地质模型,并基于此模型进行了三维剖切分析、数字钻孔、等值线生成、滑块自动剖分、滑坡失稳可视化动态模拟和滑坡体方量精确计算等一系列实用的可视化分析,为滑坡稳定性的准确计算和客观评价提供了有力的支持.     

基于Mindlin理论Winkler地基参数的Kalman滤波识别

提出了Winkler地基参数的Kalman滤波识别方法。引入Mindlin理论后,推导了Winkler地基上板的控制微分方程。利用Fourier变换,推求了Winkler地基上简支板的Fourier闭式解。推导了Winkler地基参数的Kalman滤波方程,研究了Winkler地基参数的Kalman滤波识别的具体计算步骤。研究表明,运用Kalman滤波理论进行Winkler地基参数的识别,能有效地估计Winkler地基参数;Winkler地基参数的滤波收敛速度和精度受地基参数初始值选取和位移实测资料的影响,且Kalman滤波理论也可用于其他地基模型地基参数的识别。     

基于分布式水文模拟的三峡区间洪水预报(Ⅰ)——模型构建及验证

长江三峡区间因暴雨形成的洪水峰高量大,对三峡水库的防洪安全和运行调度的影响很大.本论文依据三峡地区的地形地貌特征,采用基于GIS的机理性分布式水文模型,来模拟三峡区间入库洪水,以尽量减少洪水预报中的不确定性.利用近期建成的78个自动雨量站网监测的小时降雨信息作为模型的输入,对模型参数进行了率定和验证,结果表明:大多数洪水过程的模拟精度较好,但也有的模拟结果较差,其中降雨信息缺失是洪水预报不确定性的主要来源.     

一种计算台风风场的方法

揭示Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡风场模式和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ风场模式之间的联系，并设计了一种台风风场分布模式，它的风速分布曲线落在Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ和Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡两个风场模式的风速分布曲线之间，具有一个既优于Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ又优于Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡的风速衰减速率，因此它同时克服了Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡模式计算风速偏小和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ模式计算风速偏大的缺点，以一种比较合理的变化趋势向远方衰减，成为一个比较切合实际的台风风场分布模式。同时，文中提出的移行台风风场计算方法对宫崎正卫、上野武夫和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ模式都有一定的改进。