The principle of coupled stress release model and its application

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改进的能量守恒方法及其在CHAMP重力场恢复中的应用

An efficient method for gravity field determination from CHAMP orbits and accelerometer data is referred to as the energy balance approach. A new CHAMP gravity field recovery strategy based on the improved energy balance approach IS developed in this paper. The method simultaneously solves the spherical harmonic coefficients, daily Integration constant, scale and bias parameters. Two 60 degree and order gravitational potential models, XISM-CHAMPO1S from the classical energy balance approach, and XISM-CHAMPO2S from the improved energy balance, are determined using about one year＇s worth of CHAMP kinematic orbits from TUM and accelerometer data from GFZ. Comparisons among XISM-CHAMPO1S, XISM-CHAMPO2S, EIGEN-CGO3C, EIGEN-CHAMPO3S, EIGEN2, ENIGNIS and EGM96 are made. The results show that the XISM-CHAMPO2S model is more accurate than EGM96, EIGENIS, EIGEN2 and XISM-CHAMPO1S at the same degree and order, and has almost the same accuracy as EIGEN-CHAMPO3S.     

A new efficient 3D non-hydrostatic free-surface flow model for simulating water wave motions

A new three-dimensional, non-hydrostatic free surface flow model is presented. For simulating water wave motions over uneven bottoms, the model employs an explicit project method on a Cartesian the staggered gird system to solve the complete three-dimensional Navier–Stokes equations. A bi-conjugated gradient method with a pre-conditioning procedure is used to solve the resulting matrix system. The model is capable of resolving non-hydrostatic pressure by incorporating the integral method of the top-layer pressure treatment, and predicting wave propagation and interaction over irregular bottom by including a partial bottom-cell treatment. Four examples of surface wave propagation are used to demonstrate the capability of the model. Using a small of vertical layers (e.g. 2–3 layers), it is shown that the model could effectively and accurately resolve wave shoaling, non-linearity, dispersion, fission, refraction, and diffraction phenomena.     

空间分辨率对总初级生产力模拟结果差异的影响

利用模型分析气候变化对陆地生态系统功能的影响,是当前全球变化生态学的研究热点,然而模型模拟不确定性来源之一就是空间异质性的问题。空间异质性是尺度的函数,基于气象和遥感数据驱动的生态系统过程模型（BEPS模型）,分别模拟2003-2005年中国生态系统通量观测与研究网络（ChinaFLUX）长白山站、千烟洲站、海北站及当雄站在1 km和8 km空间分辨率下的总初级生产力（GPP）的时间动态变化,并结合土地覆盖类型及叶面积指数(LAI)的差异,探讨两种空间分辨率输入数据对GPP模拟结果的影响。结果表明：① 差异性主要是由于8 km范围内混合像元导致LAI的不同,4个站点月均差异值分别为0.85、1.60、0.13及0.04;② 两种空间分辨率均能较好地反映各站点GPP的季节动态变化,与GPP观测值的相关性R²为0.79~0.97 (1 km)、0.69~0.97(8 km),月均差异值为11.46~29.65 gC/m²/month (1 km)、11.87~24.81 gC/m²/month (8 km);③ 4个通量站点在两种空间分辨率下的GPP月均差异值分别为14.43,12.05,4.79,3.22 gC/m²/month,不同空间分辨率的模拟结果在森林站的差异大于草地站,且生长季的差异大于非生长季。因此,模型在模拟大尺度、长时间序列GPP时,为了提高模型模拟效率,适度降低空间分辨率是可行的,但应尽量减小低空间分辨率对于森林生态系统以及生长季GPP模拟上的误差。     

东北三省城乡收入差距空间格局及其分异机制研究

借助多元逐步线性回归、GWR等模型方法,探讨1990年以来东北三省城乡收入差距空间格局、类型特征及其分异机制,最后提出城乡统筹可持续发展建议。结果表明： 1990年以来,东北三省城乡居民收入水平大幅提高,但大部分地区城镇居民可支配收入水平仍低于全国平均水平;城乡收入差距整体有所拉大,呈现出“中间高、两端低”的空间特征。 城乡收入差距空间分布格局受经济发展水平、工业拉动效应、服务业带动力和交通通达程度影响,其中经济发展水平对城乡收入差距由早期的正向拉大作用为主,逐步演变为负向抑制效应。 据此提出对策建议：深化改革开放,加快国有企业改革步伐,优化区域产业结构,提高服务业发展水平和比重,激发市场活力,破解制约区域经济发展的各种障碍;加快实施乡村振兴战略,促进乡村资源开发,开辟致富增收新路径。     

PM2.5污染对中国人口死亡率的影响——基于346个城市面板数据的实证分析

中国生态文明建设和“健康中国”战略强调切实治理影响人口健康的环境问题,建设健康人居环境。论文基于2000年和2010年中国人口普查资料以及2005年和2015年各省级行政单元1%人口抽样调查等数据资料,论文使用探索性空间分析方法刻画中国城市人口死亡率的时空变化特征,并采用空间回归方法,揭示城市PM_2.5的平均浓度对人口死亡率的影响及其空间溢出效应,以及社会经济因素对PM_2.5—人口死亡率关联的调节效应。结果表明：① 中国城市人口死亡率的空间分布特征呈现明显的异质性,高死亡率地区早期集聚分布于西南地区,2005年后在西南地区、华北地区、华东地区和华中地区呈现逐渐集聚分布态势。低死亡率地区长期集中分布于西北地区、东北地区、长三角地区、珠三角地区和京津两市。② 人口死亡率的分布存在空间关联性,高—高类型地区早期集中分布于西南地区,后期向东扩展;低—低类型地区主要分布于北疆、内蒙古西部和广东省及其周边地区。③ 城市PM_2.5浓度对人口死亡率具有显著的正向影响,并且对邻近地区的人口死亡率具有显著的空间溢出效应。④ 中国城市PM_2.5浓度对人口死亡率的影响存在学历差异和城乡差异,地区高学历人群集聚可降低PM_2.5的健康风险,城镇化发展进程缓慢则会加重PM_2.5的健康风险。研究旨在为防范空气污染暴露导致的健康风险、建设健康人居环境提供科学依据。     

Implementing quality control on a random number stream to improve a stochastic weather generator

For decades, stochastic modellers have used computerized random number generators to produce random numeric sequences fitting a specified statistical distribution. Unfortunately, none of the random number generators we tested satisfactorily produced the target distribution. The result is generated distributions whose mean even diverges from the mean used to generate them, regardless of the length of run. Non‐uniform distributions from short sequences of random numbers are a major problem in stochastic climate generation, because truly uniform distributions are required to produce the intended climate parameter distributions. In order to ensure generation of a representative climate with the stochastic weather generator CLIGEN within a 30‐year run, we tested the climate output resulting from various random number generators. The resulting distributions of climate parameters showed significant departures from the target distributions in all cases. We traced this failure back to the uniform random number generators themselves. This paper proposes a quality control approach to select only those numbers that conform to the expected distribution being retained for subsequent use. The approach is based on goodness‐of‐fit analysis applied to the random numbers generated. Normally distributed deviates are further tested with confidence interval tests on their means and standard deviations. The positive effect of the new approach on the climate characteristics generated and the subsequent deterministic process‐based hydrology and soil erosion modelling are illustrated for four climatologically diverse sites. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reconstruction of Conceptual Prediction Model for the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China under global warming

With the influence of global warming,the global climate has undergone significant inter-decadal variation since the late 1970s.Although El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)has been the strongest signal for predicting global climate inter-annual variability,its relation with the summer rainfall in China has significantly changed,and its indicative function on the summer rainfall in China has weakened.This has led to a significant decrease in the accuracy rate of early conceptual prediction models for the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China.On the basis of the difference analysis of atmospheric circulation system configuration in summer,as well as the interaction of ocean and atmospheric in previous winter between two phases,i.e.before and after the significant global warming(1951 to 1978 and 1979 to 2012,respectively),we concluded that(1)Under different inter-decadal backgrounds,the atmospheric circulations that impacted the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China showed consistency,but in the latter phase of the global warming,the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH)was on the strong side,the position of which was in the south,and the blocking high in the Eurasia mid-high latitudes was active,while the polar vortex extended to the south,and meridional circulation intensified.This circulation background may have been conducive to the increase of the circulation frequency of Patterns II and III,and the decrease of the circulation frequency of Pattern I,thus leading to more Patterns II and III and fewer Pattern I in the summer rainfall of eastern China.(2)In the former phase,the corresponding previous winter SST fields of different rainfall patterns showed visible differences.The impact of ENSO on North Pacific Oscillation(NPO)was great,and the identification ability of which on Patterns I and II of summer rainfall was effective.In the latter phase,this identification ability decreased,while the impact of ENSO on the Pacific/North American(PNA)teleconnection pattern increased,and the identification ability of the PNA on Patterns II and III also increased.Based on the new inter-decadal climate background,this study reconstructs the conceptual prediction model for the Three Rainfall Patterns in summer of eastern China by using the previous winter PNA and the Eurasian(EU)teleconnection indexes.The fitting effect was satisfying,though it is necessary to be further tested.     

琼东南盆地崖南区少井岩性建模技术研究

崖南区是琼东南盆地已证实的富生烃区,几口已钻井都已证实主要目的层段为高压地层,利用常规的压力预测方法预测新钻井的压力会出现较大的误差.若是从区域应力角度入手预测新钻井的压力误差会减小,其预测基础为岩性模型.对于已开发的油气田,利通常规的岩性建模方法可以建立较好的岩性模型;但是对于崖南区而言,由于地震资料品质不是很好,同时本区钻井较少,很难通过常规的建模方法建立岩性模型,所以本区研究重点是如何利用少井建立岩性模型.通过研究认为若完成崖南区的岩性建模必须改进建模流程,改进的岩性建模流程克服了常规岩性建模在崖南区存在的问题,主要有三方面的优点:1)不采用相模型约束岩性建模,解决了由于研究区相模型划相较粗很难约束岩性模型建立的问题;2)属性模型控制岩性模型的横向变化趋势,解决了几种常规属性与岩性间没有较好关系的问题;3)利用泥质含量结合岩性资料建立岩性体,得到的岩性模型比较接近实际情况.C井钻前完成岩性模型建立,利用C井井点位置提取岩性数据与本井钻后录井岩性数据对比,发现预测岩性与录井岩性的吻合程度很高,证明改进的岩性建模思路在崖南少井区可用.     

三种压力源模型对火山区地面变形的影响

本文主要分析Mogi点源模型、有限标准椭球体及张开型矩形位错等三种压力源模型对火山区地面变形的影响，指出它们各自在垂直和水平形变方面的不同特点，最后对长白山火山区可能存在的压力源形状进行了分析。