中国省际人口迁移的多边效应机制分析

区际人口迁移不仅与迁出地和目的地的要素特征以及距离有关,而且还受到周边迁移流的影响.基于网络自相关理论,利用"六普"省际人口迁移数据和相关统计资料,在重力模型的基础上考虑迁移流之间可能存在的几种空间依赖形式,构建中国省际迁移流的空间OD模型,初步揭示区域经济社会等因素及其空间溢出效应对省际人口迁移的影响,并就区域要素变化对整个省际人口迁移系统产生的"连锁反应"进行了模拟.结果表明:① 中国省际迁移流之间存在显著的网络自相关效应.目的地和迁出地的自相关效应皆为正,导致迁入和迁出流的空间效仿行为;迁出地和目的地周边则出现负的自相关效应,导致迁移流的空间竞争行为;② 区域经济社会等因素通过网络空间关系对周边地区产生的多边溢出效应导致迁移流在空间上集聚.其中,距离衰减效应位居各要素之首,其溢出效应进一步加剧距离的摩擦作用;对目的地而言,区域工资水平和迁移存量超过GDP的影响并产生正的溢出效应,促进周边地区吸引更多的外来人口;对迁出地而言,人口规模和迁移存量产生正的溢出效应,推动周边地区人口外迁;③ 区域要素变化潜在地对整个省际人口迁移系统产生一系列"连锁反应",震荡中心及其周边区域的迁移流波动较大.江苏省GDP增长5%的模拟结果表明,江苏迁往全国其他省份的人口数量都有不同程度地减少,而其他省份入迁人口均有所增加.相对而言,江苏周边省份的迁入或迁出流受到的波动较大,偏远省份波及较小,这是传统的重力模型所无法解释的.     

土地集约利用数据库实时更新系统的研制

针对PDA产品信息采集不全、屏幕小不易图形编辑、维护保管难及数据库更新不及时等问题,文章将更新数据的编辑、审核和更新入库功能移至服务器端。在系统结构设计、数据库设计以及功能设计等基础上,利用组件式GIS开发、空间数据拓扑分析、软件系统集成、地理建模等先进技术,对土地集约利用数据库实时更新系统进行开发,实现了土地集约利用评价数据库采集和更新内外业一体化,进而实现与"土地集约利用终端系统"的完美对接,为土地集约利用评价系统提供了实时、准确的数据源。     

Testing and modeling of the mechanical behavior of dolomite in the Wudongde hydropower plant

In order to understand the mechanical behaviours of the surrounding rocks in the underground caverns of the Wudongde hydropower plant, triaxial tests are performed on a type of dolomite. It is revealed that damage induced by crack development is the main factor controlling the nonlinear plastic deformation and failure behaviour of the dolomite in both pre- and post-peak regimes. Based on this understanding, a coupled elastoplastic damage model is developed for capturing the dolomite’s mechanical behaviours. In the model, the effects of plasticity and damage on rocks is described by introducing plastic hardening and damage softening commonly in the plastic yield surface. Which are both derived from a suitable Helmholtz free energy function. The model is used to simulate the triaxial tests. Comparisons between test results and the numerical modelling show that the developed model is capable of describing the macro mechanical behaviours of the Wudongde dolomite.     

Prediction of Seaward Slope Recession in Berm Breakwaters Using M5' Machine Learning Approach

In the design process of berm breakwaters, their front slope recession has an inevitable rule in large number of model tests, and this parameter being studied. This research draws its data from Moghim’s and Shekari’s experiment results. These experiments consist of two different 2D model tests in two wave flumes, in which the berm recession to different sea state and structural parameters have been studied. Irregular waves with a JONSWAP spectrum were used in both test series. A total of 412 test results were used to cover the impact of sea state conditions such as wave height, wave period, storm duration and water depth at the toe of the structure, and structural parameters such as berm elevation from still water level, berm width and stone diameter on berm recession parameters. In this paper, a new set of equations for berm recession is derived using the M5'' model tree as a machine learning approach. A comparison is made between the estimations by the new formula and the formulae recently given by other researchers to show the preference of new M5'' approach.     

Development of A Depth-Integrated Longshore Current Model with Unstructured Grids

A depth-integrated model for simulating wave-induced longshore current was developed with unstructured grids. Effects of surface roller and horizontal mixing under combined waves and currents were incorporated in the numerical model. Recommended values of model coefficients were also proposed based on sensitivity analysis. Field observations and three series of laboratory measurements including two cases conducted on the plane beach and one implemented on the ideal inlet were employed to examine the predictive capability of this model. For the field case and laboratory cases conducted on the plane beach, numerical results were compared favorably with the measured data. For the case with an ideal inlet, simulated circulation pattern is supposed to be reasonable although some deviations between numerical results and measured data still can be detected.     

Laboratory Study for Influence of Clay Content (CC) on Wave-Induced Liquefaction in Marine Sediments

In this artice, the influence of clay content on the wave-induced liquefaction in marine sediments was reported. The one-dimensional (1-D) equipment was setup with a vertical cylinder and 1.8–m–thick clayey sandy deposit and 0.2–m–thick water above the deposit. Unlike the previous experimental study for a single soil layer, this study used sand-kaolin mixtures, sand-illite mixtures, and sand-bentonite mixtures as the experimental samples. A series of experiments with 3,000 wave cycles in each test were conducted under numerous wave and soil conditions, which allowed us to examine the influence of clay content (CC) on wave-induced liquefaction in marine sediments. The experimental results showed that the clayey sandy deposit will become prone to liquefaction with the increase of CC when CC is less than a critical value, which depends on the type of clay. However, when CC is greater than the critical value, liquefaction depth will decrease as CC increases. Furthermore, when the CC value reaches a certain level, liquefaction will not occur. For example, no liquefaction occurs when CC ≥ 33% for both kaolin-sand and illite-sand mixtures and CC ≥ 16.36% for bentonite-sand mixtures.     

Study on Longitudinal Deformation Profile of Rock Mass in a Subsea Tunnel

During tunnel excavation, the deformation of surrounding rock due to the unloading of rock mass will vary with time. However, the measured displacement of surrounding rock is only a part of the actual longitudinal deformation profile. There is a need to analyze the longitudinal deformation profile to identify the deformation state and evaluate the stability of surrounding rock mass. In the present article, the variation of pre-deformation of surrounding rock due to excavation was analyzed, and the release coefficient was obtained from the measured results. For the Qingdao subsea tunnel, the measured crown settlement of surrounding rock was analyzed using the regression analysis method, and the longitudinal deformation profile of rock mass was simulated using the numerical calculation method. Moreover, based on the conditions of the subsea tunnel, a solid-fluid coupling model test was carried out to check the reliability of the numerical calculation results. The results of the model test were consistent with the numerical calculation results.     

Evaluation of Effective Depth of PVD Improvement in Soft Clay Deposit: A Field Case Study

This article presents a case history of determination of effective depth of prefabricated vertical drains (PVDs) under embankment loading on a very soft clay deposit in central China, near Jiujiang, Jiangxi Province. The height of the embankment was 5.3 m and construction time was about one year. The PVDs were installed to a depth of 8.5 m at a spacing of 1.5 m in a triangular pattern. Field observations and the finite element method (FEM) were employed to analyze the performance of the soft deposit during embankment construction. The influential depth of the embankment loading was evaluated based on settlement, excess pore pressure, and stress increase in subsoil, both from the observed data and FEM analysis. The effective PVD depth was determined in the following ways: (1) the depth of 5% subsoil settlement of surface settlement; (2) vertical stress increase in subsoil of 25% in-situ stress; and (3) consolidation time/PVD depth relation by FEM. Based on the analysis, the effective depth of PVDs was determined to be between 10 and 12.8 m for this field case.     

Nonparametric Estimation of Undrained Shear Strength for Normally Consolidated Clays

For decades, various well-known empirical correlations have been established and commonly used to estimate the undrained shear strength of normally consolidated clays in geotechnical practice. However, there are still many contradictory cases regarding the validity of these correlations, so their applicability and reliability are questionable. In this study, an extensive geotechnical database for normally consolidated clays has been compiled. Next, a Bayesian nonparametric method is exploited to identify the most critical soil index properties in inferring the undrained shear strength and a new predictive model is proposed. Finally, the performance of the proposed predictive model is assessed and compared with two well-known correlations using an independent testing database. It confirms that the proposed model not only possesses high predictability, but also provides superior performance over other existing empirical correlations.     

基于无机成因的油气勘查概念模型(BRCF)

基于超基性岩蛇纹石化成油理论,根据构造条件和沉积条件,提出了石油勘查概念模型——"BRCF"模型:B代表侵入地壳超基性岩;R代表储油层;C代表盖层;F代表深大断裂。运用该模型分析了波斯湾地区油气田和中国典型油气田油气成藏规律,并预测了中国大陆油气勘查靶区。