基于多智能体的土地利用模拟与规划模型

利用多智能体和元胞自动机对城市土地资源的可持续利用进行了规划。根据环境经济学资源分配原理和可持续发展理论,提出结合多智能体及元胞自动机的微观规划模型,在时间和空间上合理分配及规划城市土地资源的利用,以避免浪费不可再生的土地资源。该模型由相互作用的多智能体层、元胞自动机层和环境因素层组成,可方便地探索不同土地利用政策下城市土地利用发展情景,能够为城市规划提供有用的决策依据。以广州市海珠区为实验区,在可持续发展为前提的规划下,模拟了1995-2010年的城市扩展的动态变化,并讨论了在不同规划情景下城市土地资源的利用效率及合理性。     

乌鲁木齐大气混合层厚度和稳定度与大气污染的关系

利用乌鲁木齐市4座10层100 m梯度气象塔2013年6月~2014年4月气象观测资料和7个环境监测站[WTBX]AQI[WTBZ]资料,计算并分析了大气混合层厚度和稳定度特征,探讨了大气混合层厚度和稳定度与污染的关系。结果表明：乌鲁木齐市混合层厚度夏季郊区高、城区低,冬季从南郊—城区—北郊随地势降低依次降低;夏季和冬季分别在1 559～1 772 m和526～1 156 m之间。地面至2 km以上每500 m高度间隔统计混合层厚度,500～1 000 m出现频率最多;月变化为6～9月基本在500 m以上,且每个高度区间其概率均超过10%,10月～次年2月1 500 m以上区间概率明显减小;日变化为中午13:00～16:00达到最高值,下午和傍晚迅速下降。白天较大的感热输送提供充足的热力条件,这也体现出白天以不稳定层结为主,夜间则以稳定层结为主。大气稳定度分类结果,夏季郊区和城区不稳定（A～C类）所占比例差不多,冬季北郊稳定（E、F类）所占比较最大、城区最弱。[WTBX]AQI指数冬季最大,从南郊—城区—北郊依次增大,这与采暖期污染物多、南郊比北郊地势高有利于扩散输送有关。总体来看,乌鲁木齐大气混合层厚度空间分布与气象要素、大气稳定度、地形等密切相关,对AQI[WTBZ]指数分布有重要影响,这对近地层大气污染状况预报有着重要的指导意义。     

Error analysis of proper motions in decination obtained for 807 Hipparcos stars from PZT observations over many decades

After publication of the Hipparcos catalogue (in 1997), a few new astrometric catalogues have appeared (TYCHO‐2, ARIHIP, etc.), as a good combination of the Hipparcos satellite and ground‐based data, to get more accurate coordinates and proper motions of stars than the Hipparcos catalogue ones. There are also investigations on improving the Hipparcos coordinates and proper motions by using the astrometric observations of latitude and universal time variations (via observed stars referred to Hipparcos catalogue), together with Hipparcos data, carried out during the last few years. These kind of ground‐based data were collected at the end of the last century by J. Vondrák. There are about 4.4 million optical observations made worldwide at 33 observatories and with 47 instruments during 1899.7–1992.0; our Belgrade visual zenith telescope data (for the period 1949.0‐1986.0) were included. First of all, these data were used to determine the Earth Orientation Parameters – EOP, but they are also useful for the opposite task – to check the accuracy of coordinates and proper motions of Hipparcos stars which were observed from the ground over many decades. Here, we use the latitude part of ten Photographic Zenith Tubes – PZT data (more than 0.9 million observations made at 6 observatories during the time interval 1915.8–1992.0), and combine them with the Hipparcos catalogue ones, with suitable weights, in order to check the proper motions in declination for 807 common PZT/Hipparcos stars (and to construct the PZT catalogue of μ_δ for 807 stars). Our standard errors in proper motions in declination of these stars are less than or equal to the Hipparcos ones for 423 stars. The mean value of standard errors of 313 stars observed over more than 20 years by PZT is 0.40 mas/yr. This is 53% of 0.75 mas/yr (the suitable value from the Hipparcos catalogue). We used the Least Squares Method – LSM with the linear model. Our results are in good agreement with the Earth Orientation Catalogue – EOC‐2 and the new Hipparcos ones. The main steps of the method and the investigations of systematic errors in determined proper motions (the proper motion differences with respect to the Hipparcos values, the EOC‐2 ones and the new Hipparcos ones, as a function of α, δ, and magnitude) are presented here. A comparison of the four catalogues by pairs shows that there is no significant relationship between the differences of their μ_δ values and magnitudes and color indices of the common 807 stars. All catalogues have relatively small random and systematic errors which are close to each other. However, the comparison shows that our formal errors are too small. They are underestimated by a factor of nearly 1.7 (for EOC‐2, it is 2.0) if we take the new Hipparcos (or Hipparcos) data as reference (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Configurations of community in flood risk management

ABSTRACT

Despite a notable increase in the literature on community resilience, the notion of ‘community’ remains underproblematised. This is evident within flood risk management (FRM) literature, in which the understanding and roles of communities may be acknowledged but seldom discussed in any detail. The purpose of the article is to demonstrate how community networks are configured by different actors, whose roles and responsibilities span spatial scales within the context of FRM. Accordingly, the authors analyse findings from semi-structured interviews, policy documents, and household surveys from two flood prone areas in Finnish Lapland. The analysis reveals that the ways in which authorities, civil society, and informal actors take on multiple roles are intertwined and form different types of networks. By implication, the configuration of community is fuzzy, elusive and situated, and not confined to a fixed spatiality. The authors discuss the implications of the complex nature of community for FRM specifically, and for community resilience more broadly. They conclude that an analysis of different actors across scales contributes to an understanding of the configuration of community, including community resilience, and how the meaning of community takes shape according to the differing aims of FRM in combination with differing geographical settings.     

鄂尔多斯盆地中部石炭系层序地层分析

鄂尔多斯盆地石炭系厚 0～ 6 0 0m ,属潮坪三角洲相。从鄂尔多斯沉积特征出发 ,由地表露头结合井下剖面讨论了该盆地石炭系层序地层特点。识别出两类层序界面。依层序界面特征划分出两个层序 ,分属于本溪期及太原期 ,每个层序由海进体系域和高水位体系域组成 ,缺失低水位体系域。讨论了凝缩段及体系域的分布。     

改造华家岭防护林带的土壤改良效果

为探讨华家岭低效防护林带改造对土壤的改良效果,在华家岭地区选取生长不良的低效杨树纯林和改造后的云杉纯林、云杉×杨树、云杉×油松、云杉×落叶松混交林5种典型林带类型,对其土壤理化性状进行对比研究。结果表明:（1）云杉纯林及其混交林土壤的平均容重、平均毛管孔隙度、总孔隙度、通气度与杨树纯林的差异显著（p<0.05）,经过低效林改造后的云杉纯林及其混交林较杨树纯林的土壤容重有所下降,孔隙度和通气性有所提高\.（2）除速效P外,各林型的土壤速效N、速效K、全N、全P、全K和有机质含量随土层深度的增加而降低;云杉纯林及其混交林的土壤有机质含量、速效N、P、K和全量N、P、K养分均高于杨树纯林,pH值低于杨树纯林\.（3）云杉纯林及其混交林的有机质含量和全N含量与容重和总孔隙度的相关性较杨树纯林的好,云杉纯林及其混交林对土壤理化性能的改良作用优于杨树纯林。     

人类世可持续发展背景下的远程耦合框架及其应用

在全球一体化进程不断加深的背景下,国家与地区之间的联系日益紧密,产生了一系列跨国家、跨地区、多尺度的社会—经济—环境影响,远程耦合（Telecoupling,社会、经济、环境的远距离相互作用）科学概念和综合框架的提出为解决上述问题提供了新方法和新途径。为更好促进远程耦合综合框架的正确使用和规范推广,本文系统解析了远程耦合综合框架,厘清各组成部分的定义和功能,梳理了框架的应用现状;通过对3个中国典型案例的阐释,展示了远程耦合综合框架的使用方法、结果分析及由此得出的科学意义和政策价值;最后描述了远程耦合综合框架使用中需要重点关注的问题,并对其应用前景进行了展望。远程耦合综合框架的推广应用有助于以跨国家、跨地区、多尺度的视角,重新审视多个人类与自然耦合系统的相互作用,揭示隐藏的远距离地理空间作用的科学价值,服务于有关政策的制定和实施,促进全球社会、经济、环境的可持续发展。     

URBAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING IN CALIFORNIA: AN EVALUATION

California's excellent road system has provided unmatched mobility for most of the state's residents. Recently, however, constraints on construction of high-capacity roads have threatened the future of unrestricted auto use. California's transportation planners have therefore shifted emphasis from expanding the transportation system to increasing its efficiency. No concomitant change has occurred, however, in state legislation or resource allocation. As a result, rather than being an integrated process, transportation planning and implementation are fragmented. This paper examines the origins and implications of this situation and possible remedies for it.     

利用奇异谱分析提高极移中长期预报精度

由于空间大地观测数据传输耗时及处理过程复杂, 导致极移测量值的获取存在时延, 无法满足对高精度的极移预报值有重大需求的应用领域. 针对极移复杂的时变特性, 提出一种基于奇异谱分析(singular spectrum analysis, SSA)的预报方法. 首先用SSA分离提取极移时序中的高频组分与低频组分; 其次建立最小二乘(least square, LS)外推与自回归(AutoreGressive, AR)模型对极移高频和低频组分进行组合预报. 结果表明, SSA方法能够准确地分离和提取极移低频和高频组分, 对低频和高频组分组合预报可以显著改善极移的中长期(30--365d)预报精度, 与国际地球自转和参考系服务局(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的A公报中的极移预报值相比, SSA方法对极移PMX分量(本初子午线方向)和PMY分量(西90$^\circ$子午线方向)的中长期预报精度改进最高分别可达45.97%和62.44%. 研究结果验证了SSA方法对极移中长期预报改进的有效性.     

Strain analysis of a seismically imaged mass‐transport complex,offshore Uruguay

Strain style, magnitude and distribution within mass‐transport complexes (MTCs) are important for understanding the process evolution of submarine mass flows and for estimating their runout distances. Structural restoration and quantification of strain in gravitationally driven passive margins have been shown to approximately balance between updip extensional and downdip contractional domains; such an exercise has not yet been attempted for MTCs. We here interpret and structurally restore a shallowly buried (c. 1,500 mbsf) and well‐imaged MTC, offshore Uruguay using a high‐resolution (12.5 m vertical and 15 × 12.5 m horizontal resolution) three‐dimensional seismic‐reflection survey. This allows us to characterise and quantify vertical and lateral strain distribution within the deposit. Detailed seismic mapping and attribute analysis shows that the MTC is characterised by a complicated array of kinematic indicators, which vary spatially in style and concentration. Seismic‐attribute extractions reveal several previously undocumented fabrics preserved in the MTC, including internal shearing in the form of sub‐orthogonal shear zones, and fold‐thrust systems within the basal shear zone beneath rafted‐blocks. These features suggest multiple transport directions and phases of flow during emplacement. The MTC is characterised by a broadly tripartite strain distribution, with extensional (e.g. normal faults), translational and contractional (e.g. folds and thrusts) domains, along with a radial frontally emergent zone. We also show how strain is preferentially concentrated around intra‐MTC rafted‐blocks due to their kinematic interactions with the underlying basal shear zone. Overall, and even when volume loss within the frontally emergent zone is included, a strain difference between extension (1.6–1.9 km) and contraction (6.7–7.3 km) is calculated. We attribute this to a combination of distributed, sub‐seismic, ‘cryptic’ strain, likely related to de‐watering, grain‐scale deformation and related changes in bulk sediment volume. This work has implications for assessing MTCs strain distribution and provides a practical approach for evaluating structural interpretations within such deposits.