飑线对定点地形变观测的影响特征与机理——以陕西关中盆地为例

2013年7月31日～8月1日陕西关中盆地爆发了一次强飑线灾害性天气过程,为揭示此次飑线生命史期间对定点地形变观测的影响特征与机理,本文结合多普勒天气雷达和气象资料,系统分析了关中盆地内4个地形变观测数据。结果表明:(1)飑线过境时的短时气压突变是造成定点地形变的主要原因,引起最大的地倾斜和地应变分别达9.70×10~(-3″)和21.02×10~(-9);(2)气压变幅与地形变的弹性响应量具有较好的线性关系,二者持续时间较一致,为2～4h,其中,钻孔体应变的动态气压系数达4.04×10~(-9)/h Pa;(3)宝鸡、乾陵和华阴台对飑线的响应能力较好,西安台则较差;(4)除水管仪外,垂直摆、洞体应变和钻孔体应变等对飑线的响应均较为灵敏。上述结果有助于合理识别和科学推定飑线所导致定点地形变异常变化的物理本质,进而减少实际业务中的误判;同时,还能为定点地形变观测台站的科学选址、仪器的优化布设及不同空间尺度大气负荷模型的实证等提供重要的参考依据。     

自动与人工观测的气压差异分析

利用陕西省97个气象站2004—2007年间自动与人工平行观测期间的资料,分析了陕西和陕西不同地域人工与自动观测气压的差异并对气压月、年平均值进行了显著性检验。结果表明:人工观测比自动观测日平均气压平均偏高0.21 hPa,标准差为0.30 hPa;气压差值有明显的地域特征;气压对比差值的日、月变化规律明显;DYYZ和CAWS系列测压仪的性能没有明显差异;自动与人工观测时间不同步对定时值有一定影响,但对气候分析没有影响;校准值随时间漂移是气压传感器的主要误差源之一;自动站所测气压可与人工站气压连续使用。     

深部地壳镁铁质岩石波速的研究

镁铁质、超镁铁质岩石波速实验测量在高压700-800MPa、高温800-1100℃下进行．波速-温度曲线的斜率以温度系数dVp／dT表示，大体在700℃以内，8个标本的温度系数平均为-1．86×10-4km·S^-1／℃，比资料值小得多，即在此温度范围内，波速随温度的降幅不大．在这一温度限以上，大多岩石开始脱水出溶，相组合发生变化，同时波速大幅度下降．曲线发生转折的机制是岩石中液相的产生．角闪岩波速曲线斜率也从700℃开始发生改变，950℃后速度直线下降，到1008℃时，岩石中液量达30％，波速Vp值下降到487km／s．最后，依岩类不同以及岩石出溶和相变对波速的影响划分出5个速度-温度区，讨论了华北断块内构造隆起区和沉降区下地壳可能存在的岩石及其状态．     

地下水位固体潮加卸载响应比分析及预测意义

应用加卸载响应比的理论原理,对广东地下水位网的观测数据进行加卸载响应比计算,以广东及周边地区数次MS4．0级以上地震作为震例,提取可能的中期至短期的响应比异常变化,研究其异常特征以及与地震的对应关系。结果表明,在中强地震前响应比存在增大变化,大多数井的水位固体潮响应比在发震前1～4个月出现升高异常变化。     

高温高压条件下彭灌杂岩的强度对汶川地震发震机制的启示

采用汶川地震震源区彭灌杂岩中代表性细粒花岗岩样品,在固体围压介质三轴实验系统上开展了高温高压流变实验研究.实验的温度和压力条件按照龙门山断层带5~30 km深度对应的温度和压力（静岩压）设定.利用偏光显微镜和扫描电镜对实验样品进行微观结构观察.实验结果表明,实验样品在10~20 km深度都具有很高的强度,彭灌杂岩在该深度处于脆性破裂-脆塑性转化域,而在20~30 km实验样品强度显著降低,彭灌杂岩进入塑性流变域,这与流变结构中的极限强度很接近.以花岗岩为代表的彭灌杂岩的破裂强度决定了中上地壳的强度,在15~20 km深度不仅强度达到最大值,而且控制了断层不稳定滑动,具备地震成核条件.因此,把彭灌杂岩强度随深度变化规律与流变结构和滑动稳定性参数（a-b）结合起来得出,彭灌杂岩在15~20 km的高强度是汶川地震的孕育和发生的必要条件.     

Time series analysis for evaluating hydrological responses of pore-water pressure to rainfall in a slope

Characterization of pore-water pressure at the soil–atmosphere interface is a major requirement in relation to slope instability. A rain-gauge and five piezometers (BH1–BH5) were installed on a slope located in a Korean military base. The upper slope (BH4, BH5) was covered with plastic sheets to prevent rainwater from percolating into the slope due to safety issues. Rainfall is matched by prompt changes in the pore-water pressure except at BH5. Due to the plastic cover, the pore water does not show any significant change in the early period by evapotranspiration. From correlation analysis, two wells (BH3, BH5) have longer memory effects due to matrix flow of past precipitation. Two principal components show hydrological responses of pore water to rainfall during intense rainfall, but PC2 does not indicate any important changes in low or no rainfall. This study suggests that correlation analysis with PCA can be a valuable tool for interpreting datasets consisting only of pore-water pressure.     

Probability density evolution method for seismic liquefaction performance analysis of earth dam

To investigate the seismic liquefaction performance of earth dams under earthquake loading, we present a new methodology for evaluating the seismic response of earth dams based on a performance‐based approach and a stochastic vibration method. This study assesses an earthfill dam located in a high‐intensity seismic region of eastern China. The seismic design levels and corresponding performance indexes are selected according to performance‐based criteria and dam seismic codes. Then, nonlinear constitutive models are used to derive an array of deterministic seismic responses of the earth dam by dynamic time series analysis based on a finite element model. Based on these responses, the stochastic seismic responses and dynamic reliability of the earth dam are obtained using the probability density evolution method. Finally, the seismic performance of the earth dam is assessed by the performance‐based and reliability criteria. Our results demonstrate the accuracy of the seismic response analysis of earth dams using the random vibration method. This new method of dynamic performance analysis of earth dams demonstrates that performance‐based criteria and reliability evaluation can provide more objective indices for decision‐making rather than using deterministic seismic acceleration time series as is the current normal practice. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2022年青海门源M_(S)6.9地震前地电阻率变化分析北大核心CSCD

分别运用原始曲线分析法和归一化速率方法分析门源地震震中300 km范围内3个地电阻率台站数据变化。从原始曲线来看,金银滩台EW道临震前2个月出现大幅突跳及保留年变形态的趋势下降(-3.3%);山丹台NS道趋势下降(-1.9%)、EW道趋势上升(3.1%);武威小西沟台NS道趋势下降(-3.3%)、EW道趋势上升(2.8%),震后EW道趋势转平。而3个地电阻率台站归一化速率曲线在门源地震前均出现超过阈值的现象,但各自归一化速率形态存在差异。整点值突跳变化和日均值、月均值曲线加速变化、转折变化,尤其是上升至高值阶段出现的转折变化均可作为异常形态进行分析,以上变化不明显时需结合归一化速率方法提取异常。     

北斗三号卫星精密定轨中的光压模型研究

对于在轨运行的BDS (BeiDou Navigation Satellite System)卫星, 太阳光压是作用在卫星上主要的非引力摄动. 受多种因素的影响, 太阳光压摄动力难以精确建模, 是BDS卫星精密定轨和轨道预报过程中重要的误差来源. 由于ECOMC (Empirical CODE Orbit Model 1 and 2 Combined)模型兼顾了ECOM1 (Empirical CODE Orbit Model 1)和ECOM2 (Empirical CODE Orbit Model 2)模型的特点, 在模型中引入了较多的待估参数, 使得参数之间存在强相关性. 针对ECOMC模型的这一缺陷, 文中收集了2019年1月至2022年4月武汉大学分析中心提供的BDS-3卫星精密星历, 采用动力学轨道拟合方法得到了ECOMC模型的13个光压参数. 通过对该模型的光压参数进行时间序列分析, 分别给出了BDS-3 IGSO (Inclined Geosynchronous Orbit)和MEO (Medium Earth Orbit)卫星光压模型的参数选择策略. 并利用轨道拟合和轨道预报试验, 验证了光压模型参数选择策略的合理性. 结果表明, 采用改进型ECOMC模型进行BDS-3 IGSO和MEO卫星轨道拟合的效果最佳, 同时, 也能够提升BDS-3 IGSO和MEO卫星中长期轨道预报的精度.     

THE APPLICATION OF MINIATURE UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE IN 25 NOVEMBER 2016 ARKETAO MW6.6 EARTHQUAKE

In order to complete the field investigation to the 25 November 2016 Arketao M_W6.6 earthquake, ultra-low altitude remote-sensing data were obtained from miniature unmanned aerial vehicle. The surface rupture surveying has important significance for earthquake research. This paper selects the macro-epicenter of Arketao as the study area. The pictures were obtained with DJI Phantom 3 professional input into the software, the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), Digital Orthophoto Map (DOM) were acquired based on photogrammetry method using the overlapped optical remote-sensing images of UAV. Using these data, we can identify surface ruptures that have vertical dislocation. We selected six feature points and drew the elevation profile. In the elevation profile map, we chose smooth part of the surface rupture sides and obtained the trend line. A stable point in the surface rupture was selected and the abscissa of the point was taken into the equation of two straight lines. Then subtracting the results of the two equations, we can get the vertical dislocation of the surface rupture. On this basis, we chose six feature points and determined their vertical dislocation, which are between 4.4cm and 10.4cm. What's more, taking Bulungkou Xiang in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region for example, we speculated some surface ruptures that have vertical dislocation. It can provide a new method for identifying surface rupture in the field. In addition, we get DEM data of the Bulunkou area where ambient conditions are very poor, by using miniature unmanned aerial vehicle and taking 255 photos. Putting those photos into the EasyUAV software, we got the area digital elevation of 2cm resolution. Comparing these data with RTK data, we summarized some practical problems and solutions in the practical operation and evaluated the accuracy of miniature unmanned aerial vehicle data. The Pearson Correlation Coefficient is 0.996 6. In terms of absolute elevation, the average result of UAV and RTK differs by 156.96m. In terms of relative elevation, the average result of UAV and RTK differs by 9.74m. Compared with the previous test of Pishan County, there is a notable divergence in the results. It shows that the data accuracy will be affected to some extent in the cold weather in high elevations. The specific impact needs further exploration.