软土路基沉降实时建模动态预测

在路基填筑施工过程中,用多项式与时间序列AR组合模型预测其沉降变形发展。根据沉降观测值,采用统计分析方法识别和建立多项式预测模型,预测在某时期沉降趋势值;用平稳时间序列分析方法建立随机部分模型,并预测沉降随机部分值,二者之和即为某时期沉降预测值。随着新观测数据的不断加入,及时修改预测模型参数值,达到实时预测之目的。工程实例研究表明：组合模型预测值明显优于单一趋势模型预测值。组合模型一步预测误差绝对值大多数情况下小于5 mm。预测步数越多,预测误差则越大。     

长江黄河源区水文和气象序列周期变化分析

应用Meyer小波,对江河源地区近50a来年径流量、年降水量和年平均气温做周期分析,发现江河源地区水文气象序列的变化周期基本在22a、16~17a、11a、7~8a、5~6a和2~3a左右的时间尺度上浮动。而这些基本周期正是太阳黑子活动周期和海-气相互作用的周期,说明江河源地区水文、气象序列的周期变化受天体运动变化的影响。天体运动直接影响降水和气温的周期变化,进而在一定的下垫面条件下,影响径流的周期变化。     

海南岛主要成矿系列与矿床成矿规律研究

海南岛蕴藏着丰富的矿产资源,其成矿规律、成矿系列与我国华南或南岭地区既有很多相似之处,也有自己的特色,如印支期与花岗岩浆活动有关的矿床成矿系列及其成矿强度明显高于燕山期同类型矿床成矿系列,就是一个最好的例证.本文按照成矿系列的学术思想,将海南岛的矿床(点)归并为9个矿床成矿系列,成矿时代从新元古代开始,一直到新生代第四纪.成矿作用方面,岩浆活动和风化-沉积作用对工业矿床的形成贡献最为有利.      

辽宁宽甸砖庙硼矿区成矿地质特征及找矿

通过对砖庙硼矿区野外地质、地球化学、数学地质等深入研究,提出了研究区硼矿床经历了沉积成岩成矿作用和变质-混合岩化改造成矿作用两个成矿期,为沉积变质改造型硼矿床.本次研究工作查明了该区硼矿体总体向西侧伏的规律和北北东向断层为倾角小于40°的逆断层,并以此为指导,在逆断层下盘找到了栾家沟硼矿、花园沟硼矿、二人沟硼矿3个大型隐伏硼矿床,取得了重大找矿突破.     

Similarity search and pattern discovery in hydrological time series data mining

The rapid development of data mining provides a new method for water resource management, hydrology and hydroinformatics research. In the paper, based on data mining theory and technology, we analyse hydrological daily discharge time series of the Shaligunlanke Station in the Tarim River Basin in China from the year 1961 to 2000. Firstly, according to the four monthly statistics, namely mean monthly discharge, monthly maximum discharge, monthly amplitude and monthly standard deviation, K‐mean clustering was used to segment the annual process of the daily discharge. The clustering result showed that the annual process of the daily discharge can be divided into five segments: snowmelt period I (April), snowmelt period II (May), rainfall period I (June–August), rainfall period II (September) and dry period (October–December and January–March). Secondly, dynamic time warping (DTW), which is a different distance metric method from the traditional Euclidian distance metric, was used to look for similarities in the discharge process. On the basis of the similarity matrix, the similar discharge processes can be mined in each period. Thirdly, agglomerative hierarchical clustering was used to cluster and discover the discharge patterns in terms of the autoregressive model. It was found that the discharge had a close relationship with the temperature and the precipitation, and the discharge processes were more similar under the same climatic condition. Our study shows that data mining is a feasible and efficient approach to discover the hidden information in the historical hydrological data and mining the implicative laws under the hydrological process. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Drifting runoff periodicity during the 20th century due to changing surface water volume

Fourier and wavelet analyses were used to reveal the dominant trends and coherence of a more than one‐century‐long time series of precipitation and discharge in several watersheds in Sweden, two of which were subjected to hydropower and intensive agriculture. During the 20th century, there was a gradual, significant drift of the dominant discharge periodicity in agricultural watersheds. This study shows that the steepness of the Fourier spectrum of runoff from the May to October period each year increased gradually during the century, which suggests a more predictable intra‐annual runoff pattern (more apart from white‐noise). In the agricultural watershed, the coherence spectrum of precipitation and runoff is generally high with a consistent white‐noise relationship for precipitation during the 20th century, indicating that precipitation is not controlling the drift of the discharge spectrum. In the hydropower regulated watershed, there was a sudden decrease of the discharge spectrum slope when regulation commenced in the 1920s. This study develops a new theory in which the runoff spectrum is related to the hydraulic and hydro‐morphological characteristics of the watershed. Using this theory, we explain the changes in runoff spectra in the two watersheds by the anthropogenic change in surface water volume and, hence, changes in kinematic wave celerity and water transit times. The reduced water volume in the agricultural watershed would also contribute to decreasing evaporation, which could explain a slightly increasing mean discharge during the 20th century despite the fact that precipitation was statistically constant in the area. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

利用时序InSAR监测兰州市中心城区地面沉降

针对兰州市中心城区的地面沉降问题,该文采用PS-SBAS和PS-InSAR技术,利用2016-01-20—2019-02-21时间段内的39景Sentinel-1A/B降轨数据,使用缓冲区分析技术对兰州市中心城区轨道交通线和铁路线周边100m区域做了沉降影响分析,监测结果表明:基于Sentinel-1A/B数据和时序InSAR技术,可以准确监测城市地表的沉降和轨道交通线的沉降时空规律;沉降区域主要集中在研究区东南部的方家泉村、和平镇和猪咀岭村;软土地基下地铁的施工会导致沉降现象的发生,兰州轨道交通线和铁路线的沉降主要发生在城区东南方向;在监测时段内,使用两种时序InSAR技术监测的同名点在沉降趋势和累计沉降量上保持了良好的一致性和吻合性,但PS-InSAR的时序变化曲线较PS-SBAS更为平缓。     

贵州铝土矿含矿岩系中锂的分布特征及富集机理

锂是我国关键矿产和高新产业发展的战略性资源之一。贵州铝土矿资源丰富,含铝岩系分布广,勘查发现铝土矿(岩)中伴生大量的锂资源。研究认为,全省含铝岩系中Li含量高,变化范围大(0.55×10^-6～2725.03×10^-6),平面上Li含量总体呈北东(务正道成矿区)、南西(修文-清镇成矿区)高,中间(播州-瓮安成矿区)低的分布态势;剖面上Li主要富集在矿系上部的致密状铝土岩(矿)中,Li含量一般>500×10^-6,矿系中土状铝土矿(岩)Li含量一般<30×10^-6;气候温湿、风化及淋滤作用强的陆相湖泊沉积环境,有利于高岭石为主的黏土矿物形成及Li⁺与Al³⁺、Mg²⁺、Fe³⁺、Fe²⁺发生类质同象,或被吸附进入黏土矿物层间构造同迁移同富集,Li与Al₂O₃含量呈正相关关系;成岩成矿后的次生改造阶段,古地磁测量及CIA显示为炎热潮湿的氧化环境...     

豫西栾川县骆驼山硫锌多金属矿床闪锌矿微量元素地球化学特征及其地质意义

豫西栾川晚侏罗世中酸性岩浆热液活动形成了一套Mo-W(Fe)-Pb-Zn-Ag多金属成矿系列。其中骆驼山硫锌多金属矿床位于南泥湖矿田岩体的外接触带。在野外地质调查的基础上,通过ICP-MS对该矿床中闪锌矿/黄铁矿微量元素地球化学特征进行了详细研究。研究表明,矿床中闪锌矿微量元素的组成以富集Cd、In、Cu,亏损Ga、Tl为主要特征;Cd、In、Ga等分散元素主要赋存在闪锌矿中,Co、Ni主要富集在黄铁矿中。闪锌矿/黄铁矿中的∑REE含量均明显低于近矿围岩,早阶段闪锌矿轻重稀土元素分馏明显,配分曲线右倾;晚阶段闪锌矿LREE含量降低,配分曲线趋向平缓,并与晚阶段黄铁矿呈现互补性异常。闪锌矿的部分微量元素如Ga、Ge、Cd、In、Tl等能指示成矿温度、成矿流体特征及矿床成因,总体上闪锌矿微量元素组成特征与岩浆热液型矿床一致,与栾川中鱼库矿床成因相近,矿床形成于中高温环境。通过与邻区矿床对比分析,显示从成矿系列的过渡带到外围,成矿温度等特征呈规律性变化。     

华北燕山东段下马岭组黑色岩系元素地球化学组成——对其沉积作用的约束

华北地区燕山东段下马岭组地层中发育一套黑色岩系,本文测定了该岩系代表性岩石的地球化学组成。主微量元素分析结果显示,样品主量元素含量变化较大(如SiO2=53.00%~78.83%,Al2O3=1.20%~17.57%);PAAS标准化稀土配分型式为重稀土富集型,具Ce负异常,与现代海水配分型式一致。样品具有较高的Al2O3+TiO2含量(1.31%~18.48%),其U含量(平均3.95×10-6)、Th/Sc值(0.97~1.26)、Th/U值(平均3.50)、球粒陨石标准化稀土配分型式及大陆地壳标准化微量元素蛛网图表明黑色岩系沉积过程中有较多陆源碎屑物质的加入。黑色岩系Ba/Sr值(9.28~22.79)、Co/Zn值(0.01~0.29)及相关图解显示其沉积过程明显受到海底热液作用的影响,但原始溶液中热液组分含量不足0.1%。主微量元素比值、Ce/Ce*PAAS值(0.82~0.93)及构造背景判别图解表明黑色岩系可能沉积于大陆岛弧背景下的深水缺氧环境。