Control of Aptian palaeobathymetry on turbidite distribution in the Buchan Graben,Outer Moray Firth,Central North Sea

It is widely recognised that palaeobathymetry is a key control on the distribution of turbidite deposits. Thus, the utilisation of palaeobathymetric surfaces as an input for numerical turbidity current modelling offers a potentially powerful method to predict the distribution of deep marine sands in ancient (subsurface or outcrop) successions. Such an approach has been tested on an Aptian turbidite deposit from the Buchan Graben, UK Central North Sea, where modelled sand distributions could be quality controlled against available well data.     

Study of tide prediction method influenced by nonperiodic factors based on support vector machines

Harmonic analysis, the traditional tidal forecasting method, cannot take into account the impact of noncyclical factors, and is also based on the BP neural network tidal prediction model which is easily limited by the amount of data. According to the movement of celestial bodies, and considering the insufficient tidal characteristics of historical data which are impacted by the nonperiodic weather, a tidal prediction method is designed based on support vector machine (SVM) to carry out the simulation experiment by using tidal data from Xiamen Tide Gauge, Luchaogang Tide Gauge and Weifang Tide Gauge individually. And the results show that the model satisfactorily carries out the tide prediction which is influenced by noncyclical factors. At the same time, it also proves that the proposed prediction method, which when compared with harmonic analysis method and the BP neural network method, has faster modeling speed, higher prediction precision and stronger generalization ability.     

Truss Spar平台在波流联合作用下运动响应预报方法比较

基于细长体水动力模型比较了Truss Spar平台在波流联合作用下运动响应预报的三种方法。分别采用波流耦合、速度叠加及力叠加计算Truss Spar平台在波流联合作用下的水动力载荷,根据流场水质点运动规律和Truss Spar外部形状特点,分段高效计算水动力载荷。利用Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg方法求解刚体非线性运动方程得Truss Spar在波流场中的运动响应。研究结果表明力叠加法所预报的Truss Spar纵荡和纵摇运动明显大于其他两种方法的相应运动响应预报结果,而波流耦合法与速度叠加法所预报的纵荡与纵摇运动响应幅值相当,三种方法所预报的垂荡运动响应的大小取决于具体波流参数。     

新一代区域海-气-浪耦合台风预报系统

依托国家重点基础研究（973）计划项目"上层海洋对台风的响应和调制机理研究",中国气象局上海台风研究所联合国家海洋局的相关单位,通过实施近海台风的外场观测科学试验、加强台风边界层（特别是海气相互作用）物理过程诊断分析及参数化方案等的研究,建立并改进了台风强度预报的海-气-浪耦合预报模式系统,并在此基础上发展了台风强度的集合预报技术,在历史典型台风个例和2016-2017年台汛期的业务化测试中表现出良好的预报性能。     

Examining fault architecture and strain distribution using geospatial and geomechanical modelling: An example from the Qaidam basin,NE Tibet

The investigation of complex geological setting is still dominated by traditional geo-data collection and analytical techniques, e.g., stratigraphic logging, dip data measurements, structural ground mapping, seismic interpretation, balance section restoration, forward modelling, etc. Despite the advantages of improving our understanding in structural geometry and fault architecture, the geospatial modelling, applying computer-aided three-dimensional geometric design, visualization and interpretation, has rarely been applied to such complex geological setting. This study used the Lenghu fold-and-thrust belt (in Qaidam basin, NE Tibetan Plateau) to demonstrate that the application of geospatial and geomechanical modelling could improve our understanding and provide an effective technique for investigating the fault architecture and strain distribution. The three-dimensional configuration of the Lenghu fold-and-thrust belt was initially derived from traditional analysis techniques, such as regional stratigraphic logging, cross section construction, meso-scale ground mapping and landsat image interpretation. The high-resolution field data and landsat image were integrated to construct the geospatial model, which was subsequently used to quantitatively investigate the fault throw changes along the Lenghu thrust fault zone and to understand its control on the lateral structural variation. The geospatial model was then restored in three dimensions to reveal the kinematic evolution of the Lenghu fold-and-thrust belt. Geomechanical modelling, using a Mass-Spring algorithm, provided an effective three-dimensional tool for structural strain analysis, which was used to predict the strain distribution throughout the overall structure, e.g., normal faults with throws ranging from meters to tens of meters in the hanging-wall. The strain distribution predicted by geomechanical modelling was then validated by the natural normal faults in the hanging-wall. The high accordance between the strain prediction and statistics of natural normal faults demonstrates good applicability of geospatial and geomechanical modelling in the complex geological setting of the Lenghu fold-and-thrust belt. The geospatial models and geomechanical models, therefore, can provide a robust technique for analyzing and interpreting multi-source data within a three-dimensional environment. We anticipate that the application of three-dimensional geospatial modelling and geomechanical modelling, integrating both multi-source geologic data and three-dimensional analytical techniques, can provide an effective workflow for investigating the fault architecture and strain distribution at different scales (e.g., ranging from regional-to meso-scale).     

AVO与流体替换相结合识别深层Ⅰ类气藏

传统的“亮点”技术适合检测Ⅲ类AVO含气异常,对于中、深层含气砂岩表现出来的Ⅰ类AVO现象无法识别。利用AVO技术,结合流体替换,寻找差异,运用G属性体,可以有效识别深层Ⅰ类AVO含气砂岩,利用这种方法预测了某油气田a主力气藏的分布。预测结果得到B井证实。     

Turbidity characterizes the reproduction areas of pikeperch (Sander lucioperca (L.)) in the northern Baltic Sea

The pikeperch (Sander lucioperca (L.)) is an economically important fish species occurring in the fresh and brackish waters of Europe. To evaluate the distribution and extent of the reproduction areas in the northern Baltic Sea, a field survey was carried out in two separate coastal areas. Presence/absence data were used to develop a geographic information system (GIS)-based predictive spatial distribution model, where high resolution raster maps of the focal environmental variables and a logistic regression equation were used to predict the probability of larval occurrence. The results indicated that the pikeperch reproduction areas are located in the innermost archipelago zone where high water turbidity best explained their presence. Turbidity was related to several other variables such as fetch and depth. Contrary to our preliminary hypothesis, surface water temperatures measured during the survey had no significant effect in the model due to the low spatial variation in the measured values. Since turbidity is possible to determine by remote sensing methods, the probability maps can be cost-effectively extended to more extensive coastal areas with proper validation.     

Role of Vertical Resolution in Numerical Models Towards the Intensification,Structure and Track of Tropical Cyclones

The impact of vertical resolution on the evolution and movement of tropical cyclones was studied using NCAR MM5 model with a horizontal resolution of 9 km. Four numerical experiments were performed with different vertical resolutions, that is, with 23 vertical levels as control experiment, and 36 vertical levels with high resolution in the lower troposphere, 33 vertical levels with high resolution in the upper troposphere and 46 vertical levels with increased vertical resolution throughout the troposphere as relative to base experiment. The results indicate that increased vertical resolution in the lower troposphere produces efficient intensification and better structure in terms of eye and eyewall. Increased vertical resolution at lower levels improves the prediction of vertical shear of horizontal wind. Experiments with high resolution in the lower troposphere and high resolution throughout the troposphere simulate better track up to 72 hours.     

A Dynamical Statistical Model for Prediction of a Tropical Cyclone

A dynamical statistical method is applied for operational forecasting of the Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone “Nargis” of April–May 2008. The method consists of three forecast components, namely (a) analysis of Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) and maximum potential intensity, (b) track prediction, and (c) 12 hourly intensity prediction for forecasts up to 72 hours. The results of the study showed that GPP could provide necessary predictive signal at early stages of development on the further intensification of the low pressure system into a tropical cyclone. The landfall forecast position errors by different operational numerical models (NWP) showed landfall position errors ranging from 10 km to 150 km and landfall time error ranges from 6 hours early to 6 hours delay. The dynamical statistical model is capable to provide 12 hourly nearly realistic intensity forecasts up to 60 hours of forecast.     

Hydrothermal Metalliferous Sediments and Waters Off the Lesser Antilles

Abstract

Considerable metal enrichments have been found in hydrothermal fluids and metalliferous sediments off the central Lesser Antilles Volcanic Arc. The elements variably enriched in the fluids as a result of the hydrothermal activity are Fe, Mn, As, Si, B, Li and in the sediments, Fe, P, Mo, As, Sb, Hg, Cu and Pb. Variations in the concentrations of these elements in both fluids and sediments along the arc result from a number of factors, the most important of which is the stage that each island's volcano has reached in its eruptive cycle. Although hydrothermal mineralization on the sea floor off the islands is only low grade, phase separation in the hydrothermal fluids at depth could be leading to higher grade stockwork mineralization below the vent fields or the discharge of metal rich brines on the lower flanks of the volcanic islands.