Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in open sea

A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters.     

泉州湾海域表层沉积物矿物碎屑分布特征及其环境意义

对泉州湾13个表层沉积物样品进行了矿物碎屑定量分析．通过矿物分析，发现泉州湾不同站位的轻、重矿物组分、含量和表征存在差异．根据矿物的分布和组合特征．将耒州湾划分为4个组合区，不同组合区所处沉积环境是不同的．分析表明，研完区表层沉积物的碎屑矿物具有明显的亲陆性，物质来源主要为河流输砂和沿湾海岸侵蚀来砂，且其分布受物源、水动力条件和矿物物理性质等因素所控制。     

Simulation of Pollutant Transport in Marmaris Bay

The circulation pattern and the pollutant transport in the Marmaris Bay are simulated by the developed three-dimensional baroclinic model. The Marmaris Bay is located at the Mediterranean Sea coast of Turkey. Since the sp ring tidal range is typically 20- 30 cm, the dominant forcing for the circulation and water exchange is due to the wind action. In the Marmaris Bay, there is sea outfall discharging directly into the bay. and that threats the bay water quality significantly. The current patterns in the vicinity of the outfall have been observed by tracking drogues which are moved by currents at different water depths. In the simulations of pollutant transport, the coliforms-counts is used as the tracer. The model provides realistic predictions for the circulation and pollutant transport in the Marmaris Bay. The transport model component predictions well agree with the results of a laboratory model study.     

贡湖及其相关水域风生流模拟研究

在太湖风生流的数值模拟研究的基础上，设计模拟贡湖及其相关水域风生流的套网格数值模式。应用该模式研究不同风情下，梅梁湖，太湖主体湖水对贡湖的影响。