A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Divergence and flow direction as indicators of subsurface heterogeneity and stage‐dependent storage in alluvial floodplains

Assuming homogeneity in alluvial aquifers is convenient, but limits our ability to accurately predict stream‐aquifer interactions. Research is needed on (i) identifying the presence of focused, as opposed to diffuse, groundwater discharge/recharge to streams and (ii) the magnitude and role of large‐scale bank and transient storage in alluvial floodplains relative to changes in stream stage. The objective of this research was to document and quantify the effect of stage‐dependent aquifer heterogeneity and bank storage relative to changes in stream stage using groundwater flow divergence and direction. Monitoring was performed in alluvial floodplains adjacent to the Barren Fork Creek and Honey Creek in northeastern Oklahoma. Based on results from subsurface electrical resistivity mapping, observation wells were installed in high and low electrical resistivity subsoils. Water levels in the wells were recorded real time using pressure transducers (August to October 2009). Divergence was used to quantify heterogeneity (i.e. variation in hydraulic conductivity, porosity, and/or aquifer thickness), and flow direction was used to assess the potential for large‐scale (100 m) bank or transient storage. Areas of localized heterogeneity appeared to act as divergence zones allowing stream water to quickly enter the groundwater system, or as flow convergence zones draining a large groundwater area. Maximum divergence or convergence occurred with maximum rates of change in flow rates or stream stage. Flow directions in the groundwater changed considerably between base and high flows, suggesting that the floodplains acted as large‐scale bank storage zones, rapidly storing and releasing water during passage of a storm hydrograph. During storm events at both sites, the average groundwater direction changed by at least 90° from the average groundwater direction during baseflow. Aquifer heterogeneity in floodplains yields hyporheic flows that are more responsive and spatially and temporally complex than would be expected compared to more common assumptions of homogeneity. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Alteration of hydrological processes and streamflow with juniper (Juniperus virginiana) encroachment in a mesic grassland catchment

To understand the effect of woody plant encroachment on hydrological processes of mesic grasslands, we quantified infiltration capacity in situ, the temporal changes in soil water storage, and streamflow of a grassland catchment and a catchment heavily encroached by juniper (Juniperus virginiana, eastern redcedar) in previously cultivated, non‐karst substrate grasslands in north‐central Oklahoma for 3 years. The initial and steady‐state infiltration rates under the juniper canopy were nearly triple to that of the grassland catchment and were intermediate in the intercanopy spaces within the encroached catchment. Soil water content and soil water storage on the encroached catchment were generally lower than on the grassland catchment, especially when preceding the seasons of peak rainfall in spring and fall. Frequency and magnitude of streamflow events were reduced in the encroached catchment. Annual runoff coefficients for the encroached catchment averaged 2.1%, in contrast to 10.6% for the grassland catchment. Annual streamflow duration ranged from 80 to 250 h for the encroached catchment compared with 600 to 800 h for the grassland catchment. Our results showed that the encroachment of juniper into previously cultivated mesic grasslands fundamentally alters catchment hydrological function. Rapid transformation of mesic grassland to a woodland state with juniper encroachment, if not confined, has the potential to drastically reduce soil water, streamflow and flow duration of ephemeral streams in the Southern Great Plains. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Soil pipe flow tracer experiments: 1. Connectivity and transport characteristics

Much debate has occurred in catchment hydrology regarding the connectivity of flow paths from upslope areas to catchment outlets. This study was conducted in two catchments, one with three upper branches, in a loess soil with a fragipan that fosters lateral flow and exhibits an extensive distribution of soil pipe collapse features. The study aimed to determine the connectivity of multiple soil pipe networks as well as determine pipe flow velocities during storm events. Fluorescein dye was injected directly into soil pipes at the upper most pipe collapse feature of four different hillslopes. Breakthrough curves (BTC) were determined by sampling multiple pipe collapse features downslope. The BTCs were used to determine the ‘average’ (centre of mass) and ‘maximum’ (first arrival) flow velocities. This study confirmed that these catchments contain individual continuous soil pipe networks that extend over 190 m and connect the upper most hillslopes areas with the catchment outlet. While the flow paths are continuous, the individual pipe networks consist of alternating reaches of subsurface flow through soil pipes and reaches of surface flow through gullies formed by pipe collapses. In addition, flow can be occurring both through the subsurface soil pipes simultaneous with surface flow generated by artesian flow from the soil pipes. The pipe flow velocities were as high as 0.3 m/s, which was in the range of streamflow velocities. These pipe flow velocities were also in the range of velocities observed in pinhole erosion tests suggesting that these large, mature soil pipes are still actively eroding. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The exponential decline in saturated hydraulic conductivity with depth: a novel method for exploring its effect on water flow paths and transit time distribution

The strong vertical gradient in soil and subsoil saturated hydraulic conductivity is characteristic feature of the hydrology of catchments. Despite the potential importance of these strong gradients, they have proven difficult to model using robust physically based schemes. This has hampered the testing of hypotheses about the implications of such vertical gradients for subsurface flow paths, residence times and transit time distribution. Here we present a general semi‐analytical solution for the simulation of 2D steady‐state saturated‐unsaturated flow in hillslopes with saturated hydraulic conductivity that declines exponentially with depth. The grid‐free solution satisfies mass balance exactly over the entire saturated and unsaturated zones. The new method provides continuous solutions for head, flow and velocity in both saturated and unsaturated zones without any interpolation process as is common in discrete numerical schemes. This solution efficiently generates flow pathlines and transit time distributions in hillslopes with the assumption of depth‐varying saturated hydraulic conductivity. The model outputs reveal the pronounced effect that changing the strength of the exponential decline in saturated hydraulic conductivity has on the flow pathlines, residence time and transit time distribution. This new steady‐state model may be useful to others for posing hypotheses about how different depth functions for hydraulic conductivity influence catchment hydrological response. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Linking tracers,water age and conceptual models to identify dominant runoff processes in a sparsely monitored humid tropical catchment

Assessing catchment runoff response remains a key research frontier because of limitations in current observational techniques to fully characterize water source areas and transit times in diverse geographical environments. Here, we report a study that combines empirical data with modelling to identify dominant runoff processes in a sparsely monitored humid tropical catchment. The analysis integrated isotope tracers into conceptual rainfall–runoff models of varying complexity (from 5 to 11 calibrated parameters) that are able to simulate discharge and tracer concentrations and track the evolving age of stream water exiting the catchment. The model structures can be seen as competing hypotheses of catchment functioning and were simultaneously calibrated against uncertain streamflow gaugings and a 2‐year daily isotope rainfall–runoff record. Comparison of the models was facilitated using global parameter sensitivity analysis and the resulting effect on calibration. We show that a variety of tested model structures reproduced water and tracer dynamics in stream, but the simpler models failed to adequately reproduce both. The resulting water age distributions of the tested models varied significantly with little similarity between the stream water age and stored water age distributions. The sensitivity analysis revealed that only some of the more complex models (from eight parameters) could be better constrained to infer more plausible water age distributions and catchment storage estimates. These models indicated that the age of water stored in the catchment is generally older compared with the age of water fluxes, with evapotranspiration age being younger compared with streamflow. However, the water age distributions followed a similar temporal behaviour dominated by climatic seasonality. Stream water ages increased during the dry season (greater than 1 year) and decreased with increased streamflow (a few weeks old) during the wet season. We further show that the ratios of the streamwater age to stored water age distribution and the water age distribution of actual evapotranspiration to the stored water age distribution from constrained models could potentially serve as useful hydrological indicators of catchment functioning. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Landform‐oriented flow‐routing algorithm for the dual‐structure loess terrain based on digital elevation models

The loess landform in the Loess Plateau of China is with typical dual structure, namely, the upper smooth positive terrain and the lower cliffy negative terrain (P–N terrain for short). Obvious differences in their morphological feature, geomorphological mechanism, and hydrological process could be found in the both areas. Based on the differences, a flow‐routing algorithm that separately addresses the dual‐structure terrain would be necessary to encompass this spatial variation in their hydrological behaviour. This paper proposes a mixed flow‐routing algorithm to address aforementioned problems. First, the loess landform surface is divided into P–N terrains based on digital elevation models. Then, specific catchment area is calculated with the new algorithm to simulate the water flows in both positive and negative terrain areas. The mixed algorithm consists of the multiple flow‐routing algorithm (multiple‐flow direction) for positive areas and the D8 algorithm for negative areas, respectively. The approach is validated in two typical geomorphologic areas with low hills and dense gullies in the northern Shaanxi Loess Plateau. Four indices are used to examine the results, which show that the new algorithm is more suitable for loess terrain in simulating the spatial distribution of water accumulation, as well as in modeling the flow characteristics of the true surface by considering the morphological structures of the terrain. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How preferential flow delivers pre‐event groundwater rapidly to streams

Groundwater often accounts for a substantial fraction of flood hydrographs, but the processes responsible for this have been unclear. However, many aquifers have preferential flow and this explains how aquifers can be so responsive. In bedrock aquifers, weathering enhances the connectivity and apertures along the most efficient flow paths and hence enhances the permeability. This results in celerities and velocities of the preferential flow in these dual‐porosity aquifers that are two to three orders of magnitude higher than if the aquifers behaved as single‐porosity media. The celerities have been determined from artificial and natural flood pulses, from tidal lags, and from pumping tests. Preferential‐flow velocities have been calculated from tests using applied tracers. Celerities in bedrock aquifers are typically one to two orders of magnitude faster than velocities. The ubiquitous preferential flow in aquifers provides an additional explanation, besides groundwater ridging, for the rapid release of groundwater to streams during storm events.     

Changes in dissolved organic matter (DOM) amount and composition along nested headwater stream locations during baseflow and stormflow

Amount and composition of dissolved organic matter (DOM) were evaluated for multiple, nested stream locations in a forested watershed to investigate the role of hydrologic flow paths, wetlands and drainage scale. Sampling was performed over a 4‐year period (2008–2011) for five locations with drainage areas of 0.62, 3.5, 4.5, 12 and 79 ha. Hydrologic flow paths were characterized using an end‐member mixing model. DOM composition was determined using a suite of spectrofluorometric indices and a site‐specific parallel factor analysis model. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC), humic‐like DOM and fluorescence index were most sensitive to changes with drainage scale, whereas dissolved organic nitrogen, specific UV absorbance, Sr and protein‐like DOM were least sensitive. DOM concentrations and humic‐like DOM constituents were highest during both baseflow and stormflow for a 3.5‐ha catchment with a wetland near the catchment outlet. Whereas storm‐event concentrations of DOC and humic DOM constituents declined, the mass exports of DOC increased with increasing catchment scale. A pronounced dilution in storm‐event DOC concentration was observed at peak stream discharge for the 12‐ha drainage location, which was not as apparent at the 79‐ha scale, suggesting key differences in supply and transport of DOM. Our observations indicate that hydrologic flow paths, especially during storms, and the location and extent of wetlands in the catchment are key determinants of DOM concentration and composition. This study furthers our understanding of changes in DOM with drainage scale and the controls on DOM in headwater, forested catchments. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of rural land management changes on soil hydraulic properties and runoff processes: results from experimental plots in upland UK

To develop an evidence base to help predict the impacts of land management change on flood generation, four experimental sites were established on improved grassland used for sheep grazing at the Pontbren catchment in upland Wales, UK. At each site, three plots were established where surface runoff was measured, supplemented by measurements of soil infiltration rates and soil and vegetation physical properties. Following baseline monitoring, treatments were applied to two of the plots: exclusion of sheep (ungrazed) and exclusion of sheep and planting with native broadleaf tree species (tree planted), with the third plot acting as a control (grazed pasture). Due to a particularly dry summer that occurred pre‐treatment, the soil hydrological responses were initially impacted by the effects of the climate on soil structure. Nevertheless, treatments did have a clear influence on soil hydrological response. On average, post‐treatment runoff volumes were reduced by 48% and 78% in ungrazed and tree‐planted plots relative to the control, although all results varied greatly over the sites. Five years following treatment application, near‐surface soil bulk density was reduced and median soil infiltration rates were 67 times greater in plots planted with trees compared to grazed pasture. The results illustrate the potential use of upland land management for ameliorating local‐scale flood generation but emphasise the need for long‐term monitoring to more clearly separate the effects of land management from those of climatic variability. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.