Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios： A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.     

Multi-year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model (RegCM_NCC). Part Ⅰ: Sensitivity Study

A modified version of the NCAR/RegCM2 has been developed at the National Climate Center (NCC), China Meteorological Administration, through a series of sensitivity experiments and multi-year simulations and hindcasts, with a special emphasis on the adequate choice of physical parameterization schemes suitable for the East Asian monsoon climate. This regional climate model is nested with the NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM to make an experimental seasonal prediction for China and East Asia. The four-year (2001 to 2004) prediction results are encouraging. This paper is the first part of a two-part paper, and it mainly describes the sensitivity study of the physical process parameterization represented in the model. The systematic errors produced by the different physical parameterization schemes such as the land surface processes, convective precipitation, cloud-radiation transfer process, boundary layer process and large-scale terrain features have been identified based on multi-year and extreme flooding event simulations. A number of comparative experiments has shown that the mass flux scheme (MFS) and Betts-Miller scheme (BM) for convective precipitation, the LPMI (land surface process model I) and LPMII (land surface process model Ⅱ) for the land surface process, the CCM3 radiation transfer scheme for cloud-radiation transfer processes, the TKE (turbulent kinetic energy) scheme for the boundary layer processes and the topography treatment schemes for the Tibetan Plateau are suitable for simulations and prediction of the East Asia monsoon climate in rainy seasons. Based on the above sensitivity study, a modified version of the RegCM2 (RegCM_NCC) has been set up for climate simulations and seasonal predictions.     

Some phenomena of the interaction between vegetation and a atmosphere on multiple scales

This article studies the response of the distribution pattern and the physiological characteristics of the ecosystem to the spontaneous precipitation and the interaction between vegetation and the atmosphere on multiple scales in arid and semi-arid zones, based on measured data of the ecological physiological parameters in the Ordas Plateau of northern China. The results show that the vegetation biomass and the energy use efficiency of photosynthesis are especially sensitive to the annual precipitation; strong and complex interactions exist between the vegetation and the atmosphere on multiple scales leading to supernormal thermal heterogeneity of the underlying surface, the strong vortex movement and turbulence. This study can facilitate understanding of the land surface processes and the influences of global climate change as well as human activities on the human environment in the arid and semi-arid zones. It also aids in improving the parameterization schemes of turbulent fluxes of a heterogeneous underlying surface for land surface processes in climate models.     

Inter-Comparison of 10-year Precipitation Simulated by Several RCMs for Asia

In phase Ⅱ of the Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (RMIP) for Asia, the regional climate has been simulated for July 1988 through December 1998 by five regional climate models and one global variable resolution model. Comparison of the 10-year simulated precipitation with the observations was carried out. The results show that most models have the capacity to reproduce the basic spatial pattern of precipitation for Asia, and the main rainbelt can be reproduced by most models, but there are distinctions in the location and the intensity. Most models overestimate the precipitation over most continental regions. Interannual variability of the precipitation can also be basically simulated, while differences exist between various models and the observations. The biases in the stream field are important reasons behind the simulation errors of the Regional Climate Models (RCMs). The cumulus scheme and land surface process have large influences on the precipitation simulation. Generally, the Grell cumulus scheme produces more precipitation than the Kuo scheme.     

白云鄂博矿床东矿段深部及白云向斜核部探矿的可行性探讨

白云鄂博东矿（铁矿石）已属于轻度危机矿山,解决白云鄂博东矿的资源接续问题已迫在眉睫。依据老地质资料和生产过程中的新发现,参考多位矿床成因研究专家的成果,笔者等认为在白云鄂博东矿体深部及白云向斜核部探矿是可行的。     

关于水资源总量计算的探讨

一个地区的水资源量,相对来说无论是地表水资源还是地下水资源均处于相对动态平衡之中。天然状态下,水资源总量等于地表水径流量与地下水天然排泄量之和,再减去地下水枯月天然排泄量(即地下水恒转化为河川基流量的部分)。     

基于大数据分析下的气候模型

为研究全球变暖与极寒天气间的关系,对加拿大13个省代表性测站10年的观测数据进行时空变化趋势分析,采用经验正交函数（EOF）寻找海洋表面温度历史数据的变化规律。另外利用BP神经网络建立了年平均温度、日降水量与地球吸热、散热、海表面温度、当地纬度间的关系,预测未来25年气候的变化,并建立了“极寒天气”与气候变化的关系模型。研究表明：高纬度地区温度、降水量普遍较低,同经度地区的温度差异较小且降水量变化不大;加拿大地区温度呈周期性变化,符合北半球的季节变化特征;北大西洋的东部与其他海洋的温度是反相关的,西太平洋南北回归线附近的海洋表面温度升高;“极寒天气”出现频率与气候变化有一定关系,局地极寒现象与全球变暖的大趋势并不矛盾。本研究为人们认识和理解“全球变暖”提供了一个新的思路。     

铝土矿矿泥固化技术的试验研究

铝土矿选洗过程中排尾形成的高含水量矿泥,传统上采用建库堆存,泌干固结时间长,污染环境。试验研究结果表明,选用由72%水泥、20%石膏、5%石灰、3%硫酸钠组成的复合固化剂,或由72%石灰、20%石膏、5%粉煤灰、3%硫酸钠组成的复合固化剂,按固化剂与矿泥质量比1:10掺加,对矿泥进行固化处理,其固化体强度高、耐久性好,且成本低廉,具有广泛的工程应用价值。     

1970—2016年阿尔金山冰川长度变化

长度是冰川的重要几何参数,对于认识冰川动态特征和模拟冰川厚度具有重要价值.基于阿尔金山第一次和第二次冰川编目数据及Landsat OLI遥感影像,利用冰川中流线方法提取了阿尔金山1970年、2010年和2016年的冰川长度数据,并结合气象资料分析了冰川长度对气候变化的响应.结果表明:2016年阿尔金山共有冰川507条,...     

河西走廊地质历史中宋辽干冷期灾变事件及其影响

宋辽寒冷干旱期的急剧降温,使河西地区降水量迅速减少,气候变得更为干旱。植被枯萎,风暴、沙暴、尘暴、火灾、旱灾、饥荒等灾害事件频繁发生,从而引发了一系列生态环境问题和战争动乱,对中国政治、社会、经济、文化产生重大影响。依据历史资料和考古研究成果及地质记录中“事件标志层”层位、年代,确定宋辽寒冷干旱期发生于公元1000~1050年,发展于公元1050~1100年,强盛于公元1100~1320年,消亡于公元1320~1335年。