基于分布式水文模拟的三峡区间洪水预报(Ⅰ)——模型构建及验证

长江三峡区间因暴雨形成的洪水峰高量大,对三峡水库的防洪安全和运行调度的影响很大.本论文依据三峡地区的地形地貌特征,采用基于GIS的机理性分布式水文模型,来模拟三峡区间入库洪水,以尽量减少洪水预报中的不确定性.利用近期建成的78个自动雨量站网监测的小时降雨信息作为模型的输入,对模型参数进行了率定和验证,结果表明:大多数洪水过程的模拟精度较好,但也有的模拟结果较差,其中降雨信息缺失是洪水预报不确定性的主要来源.     

新疆叶尔羌河流域地下水同位素特征及其补给来源分析

笔者以新疆叶尔羌河流域为例,在研究区水文地质调查的基础上,根据不同区域、不同深度D、~(18)O和T值的变化分析地下水补给来源.解决了传统研究方法很难解决的问题.为干旱地区地下水起源及空间分布规律研究提供了新思路。研究结果表明:(1)研究区地下水不是来自大气降水的直接入渗,而是地表水渗漏补给。(2)流域分为两个独立的地下水循环系统,分别接受叶尔羌河与提孜那甫河河水补给。(3)潜水和承压水的起源相同,属统一的地下水系统。(4)地下水径流表现为倾斜平原区径流强烈,地下水以水平运动为主;细土平原区地下水径流迟缓,地下水以垂直蒸发运动为主.径流方向与地表水流向密切相关。     

长江三角洲北翼J9孔揭示地层和古地磁特征

长江三角洲北翼地区缺少较长尺度的第四纪海陆变迁及环境演变的深入探讨,深达423m的海安县基岩标J9孔为此提供了较好的研究对象。通过观察该孔松散层岩心,总结其沉积特征,认为岩心可明显地划分为6个特征岩性段。同时,地层古地磁测试结果显示:0～200m为布容正极性世,200～334m为松山负极性世,334m以下为高斯正极性世。综合分析岩心沉积特征并参考古地磁测试结果对地层进行了初步划分,认为:0～39m为全新世地层,39～153m为晚更新世地层,153～200m为中更新世地层,200-334m为早更新世地层,之下为新近纪地层。地层中存在晚更新世晚期特征的硬粘土标志层,指示本地不是冰后期古河谷的发育地。     

山东小清河的原生动物

本文根据对山东小清河多年的污染生态调整研究，报导了淡水原生动物１４种。     

珠江三角洲晚第四纪沉积物的有机地球化学特征

本文根据有机地球化学资料,首次研究和探讨了珠江三角洲晚第四纪沉积物中有机质丰度和可溶有机质的组成特征。现代沉积物有机质丰度,有机碳为0.58％,氯仿沥青“A”为210ppm,烃含量为33.8ppm;钻孔中有机碳为0.77％,氯仿沥青“A”为253ppm,烃含量为16.4ppm。从有机质组成、红外吸收光谱特征、δ~(13)C、干酪根H/C原子比,均表现为陆生植物为主,水生生物为铺,为腐殖型或腐泥—腐殖型的母质类型。     

珠江口沉积物酸挥发性硫化物与重金属生物毒性的研究

研究了2003年10月采于珠江口5个站位的沉积物剖面酸挥发性硫化物(AVS)和同时提取的重金属(SEM:Pb,Zn,Cu,Cd,Ni)。其中,站位1、2位于中滩,其沉积物的AVS含量变化范围较小,为0.25—4.06μmol.g-1;站位3、4位于西滩,其沉积物的AVS含量变化范围较大,为0—26.09μmol.g-1。中滩和西滩沉积物的AVS含量均随深度增加。西滩表层沉积物的AVS含量接近于零,这可能与该水域较强的底层流和沉积物的再悬浮作用有关。站位5位于珠江口外侧,其表层沉积物的AVS含量相对较高,且垂向变化较小,可能是还原性沉积物间歇性再悬浮后重新沉积的结果。站位1、2和5沉积物中同时提取的重金属含量大体在0.95±0.2μmol.g-1范围内,随深度增加略呈下降趋势;而西滩沉积物重金属含量相对较高,为1.43—2.42μmol.g-1,且在一定深度范围内随深度增加呈明显下降的趋势,表明珠江口西滩沉积物中的重金属污染有加重的趋势。对AVS/SEM摩尔比值和单个金属的毒性效应研究显示,珠江口内尤其是西滩的表层沉积物存在重金属污染,对其中生活的底栖生物具有潜在的毒性效应。     

How tides and river flows determine estuarine bathymetries

For strongly tidal, funnel-shaped estuaries, we examine how tides and river flows determine size and shape. We also consider how long it takes for bathymetric adjustment, both to determine whether present-day bathymetry reflects prevailing forcing and how rapidly changes might occur under future forcing scenarios.Starting with the assumption of a 'synchronous' estuary (i.e., where the sea surface slope resulting from the axial gradient in phase of tidal elevation significantly exceeds the gradient in tidal amplitude ), an expression is derived for the slope of the sea bed. Thence, by integration we derive expressions for the axial depth profile and estuarine length, L, as a function of and D, the prescribed depth at the mouth. Calculated values of L are broadly consistent with observations. The synchronous estuary approach enables a number of dynamical parameters to be directly calculated and conveniently illustrated as functions of and D, namely: current amplitude Û, ratio of friction to inertia terms, estuarine length, stratification, saline intrusion length, flushing time, mean suspended sediment concentration and sediment in-fill times.Four separate derivations for the length of saline intrusion, L_I, all indicate a dependency on (U_o is the residual river flow velocity and f is the bed friction coefficient). Likely bathymetries for `mixed' estuaries can be delineated by mapping, against and D, the conditions L<sub>I</sub>/L<1,E<sub>X</sub>/L<1 (E<sub>X</sub> is the tidal excursion) alongside the Simpson-Hunter criteria D/U<sup>3</sup><50 m<sup>−2</sup> s<sup>3</sup>. This zone encompasses 24 out of 25 `randomly' selected UK estuaries.However, the length of saline intrusion in a funnel-shaped estuary is also sensitive to axial location. Observations suggest that this location corresponds to a minimum in landward intrusion of salt. By combining the derived expressions for L and L_I with this latter criterion, an expression is derived relating D_i, the depth at the centre of the intrusion, to the corresponding value of U_o. This expression indicates U_o is always close to 1 cm s⁻¹, as commonly observed. Converting from U_o to river flow, Q, provides a morphological expression linking estuarine depth to Q (with a small dependence on side slope gradients).These dynamical solutions are coupled with further generalised theory related to depth and time-mean, suspended sediment concentrations (as functions of and D). Then, by assuming the transport of fine marine sediments approximates that of a dissolved tracer, the rate of estuarine supply can be determined by combining these derived mean concentrations with estimates of flushing time, F_T, based on L_I. By further assuming that all such sediments are deposited, minimum times for these deposition rates to in-fill estuaries are determined. These times range from a decade for the shortest, shallowest estuaries to upwards of millennia in longer, deeper estuaries with smaller tidal ranges.     

黄河三角洲造陆速率对夏季风强度变化和人类活动的响应

以夏季风强度指数和年均气温作为反映气候变化的指数,以人类净引水量和流域水土保持面积作为反映人类活动变化的指标,并以黄河流域为例,研究了三角洲造陆对气候变化和人类活动的响应.研究表明,夏季风强度指数的变化可分为三个阶段:(1)在1951~1963年夏季风强度指数呈持续增强的变化趋势;(2)在1963~1965年夏季风强度指数呈突变式减弱;(3)在1966~2000年夏季风强度指数保持在较低的水平上,且呈缓慢减弱的趋势.年降水量变化与夏季风强度指数有同步关系.从1950到1970年的年均温度在波动中略呈降低趋势,然而从1970年开始年均温度在波动中具有持续上升的趋势.气候变化会导致入海泥沙通量的变化,并可能进一步导致三角洲造陆速率的变化.黄河三角洲造陆速率、入海泥沙通量在1952~1964年均呈增大的趋势,1964年后则呈减小的趋势,在总体上与夏季风强度指数的变化趋势相同.除了气候变化以外,流域水土保持和引水对三角洲造陆也有影响.多元回归分析表明,三角洲造陆速率随夏季风强度指数的减弱而减小,随年气温的升高而减小,随梯田林草面积的增加而减小,随年净引水量的增加而减小,同时还表明,夏季风强度指数、年均气温、水土保持措施面积和人类净引水量对三角洲造陆速率变化的贡献率分别为34.94%,3.80%,53.82%和7.44%.表示气候变化的两个变量的贡献率之和为38.7%,说明气候变化对黄河三角洲造陆过程的影响是不容忽视的.     

长江三角洲晚更新世末期古土壤与古环境

长江三角洲地区第一暗绿色硬粘土层是上海地区主要建筑持力层之一，也是划分全新统与更新统的标志层，前人已做过大量研究，但尚缺乏古土壤方面的系统研究工作。本文首次从古土壤学的角度系统研究了该层的古土壤特征，通过粒度分析发现有粘粒的生成，微形态研究发现有粘粒及铁锰、碳酸盐等化学组分的迁移与淀积，化学全量分析得出该层的硅铝率为２．８０～３．３７，说明该层已发生较强的成土作用，可以确认该层为古土壤层，并进一步把该层划分为４个Ｂ层、３个Ａ层，亦即该层为复合古土壤层。根据该层的成土特征，将其命名为古潮土     

THE CLIMATIC CHANGES AND THE COASTAL ENVIRONMENT

Although the Yellow River Delta and Bohai Sea coastal zone are long distance and different environment with Po River Delta and Adriatic Sea coastal zone, the comparison of data of two different areas and the evolution trend of two areas are quite similar. The influence of natural climatic changes on the evolution of the deltas and coastal zones exists both in ancient and modern times. The cold/wet period occurred in 1300—1400A. D. and 1550 —1850 A.D. within this"large scale" climatie cycle, and shorter periods (10— 35 years) of cold rainy weather alternated with warm/dry period are known as "Bruckner cycles" which have influence on the evolution of the deltas and coastal zones.