1998 年青藏高原春季地温异常对长江中下游夏季暴雨影响的研究

文章探讨了长江中下游夏季暴雨前期青藏高原春季各层次地温的分布特征,重点讨论了1998年夏季长江中下游暴雨前期春季高原的三维热力结构,以及其三维热力结构与其它涝年的相似性,尤其是1998年春季高原地温分布呈现出与其它涝年春季相似的特征;数值模拟试验也证实了1998年春季青藏高原下垫面三维热力结构特征,对长江中下游夏季降水存在着显著影响。青藏高原春季地温在中部等大部分地区为负距平,南部及东部边缘为正距平时,长江中下游地区夏季多雨,即青藏高原春季三维热力结构特征是导致长江中下游地区夏季降水偏多的重要原因之一。     

中低纬度系统相互作用对山东“99.8”大暴雨的影响

９９０７号热带风暴西北上减弱成低气压之后,从黄海进入山东,分别于８月９日夜间、１１￣１２日与西风带系统相互作用,造成了山东部分地、市出现大暴雨或特大暴雨。大暴雨区位于谪空急流入口区的右侧、台风低压移动方向右侧的东南低空急流与西风带弱冷空气交汇处。     

川滇地区强震分区时间分布规律及在中长期预报中的意义

川滇地区 MS≥ 6.0的地震多聚集成带、成团 ,与构造走向大体一致 .在南北地震带中、南段 ( 98°～ 1 0 5°E,2 1°～ 34°N)可划分成 7个小区 .每个小区历史上都发生过 MS≥ 7.0的强震 . 1 970年以来该区发生的 1 0次 7级以上地震 ,分别出现在 5个小区内 .经研究 ,这 5个小区中强震发生的时间与累积频度间均符合幂函数或指数关系 .通过内符检验 ,表明其对每个小区强震的中长期预报具有一定的意义 .     

南海及其周缘地区全新世海平面遗迹的构造含义南海及其周缘地区全新世海平面遗迹的构造含义

通过对海南岛海岸带野外考察,在文昌市铜鼓岭石头公园观察到高程为30 m的海平面遗迹,在东方市黄流镇观察到高程为25～35 m的海平面遗迹,在三亚市鹿回头观察到高程为25 m的海平面遗迹。综合研究前人在该区关于海平面变化的研究成果,得出如下几点初步认识：（1）南海及其周缘地区中全新世以来海平面呈下降趋势,海平面最高位置出现在7 000 a左右、高于现代海平面3 m左右的位置;（2）南海中全新世以来海平面遗迹所揭示的古海平面高程的差异性是古海平面本身持续下降和该区地壳差异性垂直运动共同作用的结果;（3）南海及其周缘地区中全新世期间中央海盆及其西缘的珠江口、红河、湄公河和昭披耶河4个河流三角洲地区为构造沉降区,而南海周缘的台湾岛、雷州半岛、印支半岛、南马来半岛、爪哇岛和苏拉威西岛6个地区为构造抬升区,抬升幅度最大的地方在台湾岛。     

南水北调中线各段干旱的分类型研究

利用我国近５００年旱涝等级史料和新中国４０多年实测雨量资料,采用天气、气候、统计学方法,对南水北调中线各段区域性干旱、插花（局地）干旱及持续性干旱等３类干旱进行了分型研究,提出了其地理分布特点,为提高南水北调的效益、合理使用水源提供了依据。     

SPATIO‐TEMPORAL SPECIFICS OF HYDRO‐GEOMORPHIC PROCESSES IN HEADWATER PARTS OF MID‐MOUNTAINS RECONSTRUCTED BASED ON TREE‐RING DATA: A CASE STUDY FROM THE HRUBÝ JESENÍK MOUNTAINS (CZECH REPUBLIC)

Debris flows and debris floods cause frequent geomorphic hazards, even in the mid‐mountains of Central Europe. In the Hrubý Jeseník Mountains (Eastern Sudetes, Czech Republic), strong anthropogenic interventions have created specific conditions for erosion, transport and accumulation of material released by debris flow/flood events. We present a detailed spatio‐temporal reconstruction of the hydro‐geomorphic process activity in two adjacent sub‐catchments using dendrogeomorphic methods applied to the steep, narrow channels. An analysis of 172 sampled trees [Picea Abies (L.) Karst.] revealed 14 torrential events since 1943 in the Klepá?ský stream sub‐catchment and 11 events since 1897 in the Keprnický stream sub‐catchment. Identical events were identified in 1965, 1991, 1997, 2002 and 2010. The event return periods were comparable with return periods from the foothills of the European Alps. A higher frequency of events in the first sub‐catchment may be caused by the presence of a deep‐seated landslide, steeper slopes and a higher susceptibility to shallow slope deformations. Different spatial patterns of events were presented using the Kernel Density analysis in ArcMap 10.1. Clusters of affected trees in the valley floor during the last decades may be due to increased erosion below the check dams and increased accumulation above. The presence of check dams and slope stabilization works since the 1960s has mitigated the processes in several gullies, but due to the current non‐interventional management, the risk of their damage is increasing, particularly when increased activity is observed in the adjacent unprotected gullies.     

辽宁阜新地区晚太古宙花岗质岩石在中地壳糜棱岩化过程中的体积亏损和成分变异

对辽西阜新地区晚太古宙韧性剪切变形变质岩石岩石学,常量、微量和稀土元素地球化学和矿物学的研究表明,在中地壳环境下的韧性剪切变形变质进程中,岩石中的元素都发生了不同程度的变异,主要表现为随变形强度的增加ＳｉＯ２,Ｎａ２Ｏ,Ｚｒ等组分规律性减少,而Ａｌ２Ｏ３,ＣａＯ,ＦｅＯ,ＭｇＯ等常量元素、稀土元素以及Ｂａ,Ｃｒ,Ｓｒ,Ｎｉ,Ｒｂ等微量元素规律性增加,本文认为剪切变形变质岩石的成分变异不仅仅是流体作用的结果,而且与剪切变形变质过程中的体积亏损相关。     

基于BCC_CSM模式的山西省盛夏降水降尺度预测

降尺度方法是目前弥补气候系统模式预测结果不足的重要手段,为获得具有较高预测技巧的山西盛夏降水客观化预测产品,本文选取1990—2017年6月起报的BCC_CSM气候系统模式输出盛夏结果和同期NCEP/NCAR再分析资料同时与山西盛夏降水异常典型模态具有统计显著的因子,利用逐步回归方法建立了山西盛夏降水降尺度模型。进一步研究发现,降尺度模型的预测能力与BCC_CSM对影响山西盛夏降水关键区海温的预测技巧密切相关。检验回报与观测的时间和空间距平相关系数(TCC和ACC)、回报与观测的距平符号一致率(PC)以及趋势异常综合评分(PS),表明降尺度模型对山西盛夏降水的预测技巧较BCC_CSM输出有明显改进,BCC_CSM模拟降水TCC在山西全区没有通过95%信度检验,降尺度模型回报TCC在山西大部分地区通过95%信度检验,中南部通过99%信度检验;相应的ACC由-0.02提高到0.35,PC由53.3%提高到66.8%,PS由65.6%提高到78.9%。2018年盛夏业务试运行,ACC为0.42,PS为70.8%。     

Did boninite originate from the heterogeneous mantle with recycled ancient slab?

Boninites are widely distributed along the western margin of the Pacific Plate extruded during the incipient stage of the subduction zone development in the early Paleogene period. This paper discusses the genetic relationships of boninite and antecedent protoarc basalt magmas and demonstrates their recycled ancient slab origin based on the T–P conditions and Pb–Hf–Nd–Os isotopic modeling. Primitive melt inclusions in chrome spinel from Ogasawara and Guam islands show severely depleted high‐SiO₂, MgO (high‐silica) and less depleted low‐SiO₂, MgO (low‐silica and ultralow‐silica) boninitic compositions. The genetic conditions of 1 346 °C at 0.58 GPa and 1 292 °C at 0.69 GPa for the low‐ and ultralow‐silica boninite magmas lie on adiabatic melting paths of depleted mid‐ocean ridge basalt mantle with a potential temperature of 1 430 °C in Ogasawara and of 1 370 °C in Guam, respectively. This is consistent with the model that the low‐ and ultralow‐silica boninites were produced by remelting of the residue of the protoarc basalt during the forearc spreading immediately following the subduction initiation. In contrast, the genetic conditions of 1 428 °C and 0.96 GPa for the high‐silica boninite magma is reconciled with the ascent of more depleted harzburgitic source which pre‐existed below the Izu–Ogasawara–Mariana forearc region before the subduction started. Mixing calculations based on the Pb–Nd–Hf isotopic data for the Mariana protoarc basalt and boninites support the above remelting model for the (ultra)low‐silica boninite and the discrete harzburgite source for the high‐silica boninite. Yb–Os isotopic modeling of the high‐Si boninite source indicates 18–30 wt% melting of the primitive upper mantle at 1.5–1.7 Ga, whereas the source mantle of the protoarc basalt, the residue of which became the source of the (ultra)low‐Si boninite, experienced only 3.5–4.0 wt% melt depletion at 3.6–3.1 Ga, much earlier than the average depleted mid‐ocean ridge basalt mantle with similar degrees of melt depletion at 2.6–2.2 Ga.