安徽省产业结构变化和技术进步对用水效率影响测度与分析——基于完全分解模型

水资源短缺为掣肘安徽省经济社会可持续发展约束因素之一,提高水资源利用效率是破解其关键。运用完全分解模型,就技术进步、结构变动因素对安徽省单位GDP水耗贡献份额进行了测度,结果表明:(1)2001~2014年,技术进步导致安徽省单位GDP用水年均下降31.91m3,是提高水资源利用效率关键因素,贡献率高达88.69%,三次产业技术进步贡献率分别为45.19%、38.59%、4.91%;(2)产业结构调整对安徽省单位GDP用水强度下降贡献率为11.31%,三次产业变动贡献率分别为-4.98%、0.62%、15.66%。提高安徽省水资源利用效率核心在于:依靠科技创新,促进一、二产业技术水平提升,调整、优化产业结构,大力提高第三产业比重。研究结果,可为安徽省制定水资源利用效率的政策提供决策参考。     

基于优化经验模态分解和聚类分析的滑坡位移智能预测研究

针对三峡库区"阶跃式"滑坡的变形特征,提出了一种新的滑坡位移预测方法。以白水河滑坡ZG118和XD-01监测点位移数据为例,采用基于软筛分停止准则的经验模态分解(SSSC-EMD)将累计位移-时间曲线和影响因子时间序列自适应地分解为多个固有模态函数(IMF),并采用K均值(K-Means)聚类法对其进行聚类累加,得到有物理含义的位移分量(趋势性位移、周期性位移以及随机性位移)和影响因子分量(高频影响因子和低频影响因子)。使用最小二乘法对趋势性位移进行拟合预测;采用果蝇优化-最小二乘支持向量机(FOA-LSSVM)模型对周期性位移和随机性位移进行预测。将各位移分量预测值进行叠加处理,实现滑坡累计位移的预测。研究结果表明,所提出的(SSSC-EMD)-K-Means-(FOA-LSSVM)模型能够预测"阶跃式"滑坡的位移变化规律,且预测精度高于传统的支持向量机回归(SVR)、最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)模型;并通过改变训练集长度,进行单因素分析,发现其与预测精度之间呈正相关关系。     

地基微波辐射计遥感人工触发闪电的观测研究

为了深入研究雷电产生的微波热辐射特征,从2016年初夏开始利用地基微波辐射计在中国气象局雷电野外科学实验基地开展了连续4年的观测实验,根据雷电热效应的特征,制定了观测方案,并为地基微波辐射计设置了“引雷观测模式”。结果表明,地基微波辐射计具有对雷电热效应产生响应的能力。2017—2019年,辐射计一共成功捕获了30次人工触发闪电,观测效率逐年增长,平均为71.4 %;微波亮温脉冲幅度的最大值约125 K。结合其中28次触发事件的雷电流数据,分析了亮温脉冲幅度和雷电流积分量之间的相关性,并发现了最大亮温脉冲幅度与总电流作用积分之间可能存在指数关系。根据亮温观测数据估算了雷电热效应的持续时间,平均约0.5 s,其中25次触发事件的雷电流热效应持续时间与雷电流持续时间变化较为一致,相关系数约0.73。     

Angular fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background owing to initial perturbations in the radiation temperature

A new method is proposed to account for multiple scattering by electrons in calculations of the correlation functions describing the angular fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR). The apparatus of the theory of radiative transport with Rayleigh scattering is used. The problem is reduced to solving an integral equation for the vector source function (dependent only on time), along with differential equations for the other quantities (scalar potentials, baryon velocities, etc.) which show up in the problem. The quantities which describe the angular fluctuations in the CMBR (in the temperature and in the polarization) are then calculated by integrating the vector source function along the line of sight. As an illustration, the correlation functions and power spectra are calculated for the case where the fluctuations are produced by some initial gaussian perturbations of the CMBR. __________ Translated from Astrofizika, Vol. 50, No. 4, pp. 621–631 (November 2007).     

Spatial variability of snowmelt timing from AMSR‐E and SSM/I passive microwave sensors,Pelly River,Yukon Territory,Canada

Spring snow melt run‐off in high latitude and snow‐dominated drainage basins is generally the most significant annual hydrological event. Melt timing, duration, and flow magnitude are highly variable and influence regional climate, geomorphology, and hydrology. Arctic and sub‐arctic regions have sparse long‐term ground observations and these snow‐dominated hydrologic regimes are sensitive to the rapidly warming climate trends that characterize much of the northern latitudes. Passive microwave brightness temperatures are sensitive to changes in the liquid water content of the snow pack and make it possible to detect incipient melt, diurnal melt‐refreeze cycles, and the approximate end of snow cover on the ground over large regions. Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR‐E) passive microwave brightness temperatures (T_b) and diurnal amplitude variations (DAV) are used to investigate the spatial variability of snowmelt onset timing (in two stages, ‘DAV onset’ and ‘melt onset’) and duration for a complex sub‐arctic landscape during 2005. The satellites are sensitive to small percentages of liquid water, and therefore represent ‘incipient melt’, a condition somewhat earlier than a traditional definition of a melting snowpack. Incipient melt dates and duration are compared to topography, land cover, and hydrology to investigate the strength and significance of melt timing in heterogeneous landscapes in the Pelly River, a major tributary to the Yukon River. Microwave‐derived melt onset in this region in 2005 occurred from late February to late April. Upland areas melt 1–2 weeks later than lowland areas and have shorter transition periods. Melt timing and duration appear to be influenced by pixel elevation, aspect, and uniformity as well as other factors such as weather and snow mass distribution. The end of the transition season is uniform across sensors and across the basin in spite of a wide variety of pixel characteristics. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimisation of the Population Monte Carlo algorithm: Application to constraining isocurvature models with cosmic microwave background data

We optimise the parameters of the Population Monte Carlo algorithm using numerical simulations. The optimisation is based on an efficiency statistic related to the number of samples evaluated prior to convergence, and is applied to a D ‐dimensional Gaussian distribution to derive optimal scaling laws for the algorithm parameters. More complex distributions such as the banana and bimodal distributions are also studied. We apply these results to a cosmological parameter estimation problem that uses CMB anisotropy data from the WMAP nine‐year release to constrain a six parameter adiabatic model and a fifteen parameter admixture model, consisting of correlated adiabatic and isocurvature perturbations. In the case of the adiabatic model and the admixture model we find that the number of sample points increase by factors of 3 and 20, respectively, relative to the optimal Gaussian case. This is due to degeneracies in the underlying parameter space. The WMAP nine‐year data constrain the admixture model to have an isocurvature fraction of 36.3 ± 2.8 %. (© 2016 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Lookback time as a test for f(R) gravity in the Palatini approach

We use the recently released data of lookback time (LT)-redshift relation, the cosmic microwave background shift parameter and the baryon acoustic oscillation measurements to constrain cosmological parameters of f (R) gravity in the Palatini formalism by considering the f (R) form of type (a) f (R) = R β/Rn and (b) f (R) = R + α ln R β. Under the assumption of a Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universe, we achieved the best fitting results of the free parameters (Ωm0, n) for (a) and (Ωm0, α) for (b). We find tha...     

Experimental evidence for an effect of early-diagenetic interaction between labile and refractory marine sedimentary organic matter on nitrogen dynamics

In most natural sedimentary systems labile and refractory organic material (OM) occur concomitantly. Little, however, is known on how different kinds of OM interact and how such interactions affect early diagenesis in sediments. In a simple sediment experiment, we investigated how interactions of OM substrates of different degradability affect benthic nitrogen (N) dynamics. Temporal evolution of a set of selected biogeochemical parameters was monitored in sandy sediment over 116 days in three experimental set-ups spiked with labile OM (tissue of Mytilus edulis), refractory OM (mostly aged Zostera marina and macroalgae), and a 1:1 mixture of labile and refractory OM. The initial amounts of particulate organic carbon (POC) were identical in the three set-ups. To check for non-linear interactions between labile and refractory OM, the evolution of the mixture system was compared with the evolution of the simple sum of the labile and refractory systems, divided by two. The sum system is the experimental control where labile and refractory OM are virtually combined but not allowed to interact. During the first 30 days there was evidence for net dissolved-inorganic-nitrogen (DIN) production followed by net DIN consumption. (Here ‘DIN’ is the sum of ammonium, nitrite and nitrate.) After  30 days a quasi steady state was reached. Non-linear interactions between the two types of OM were reflected by three main differences between the early-diagenetic evolutions of nitrogen dynamics of the mixture and sum (control) systems: (1) In the mixture system the phases of net DIN production and consumption commenced more rapidly and were more intense. (2) The mixture system was shifted towards a more oxidised state of DIN products [as indicated by increased (nitrite + nitrate)/(ammonium) ratios]. (3) There was some evidence that more OM, POC and particulate nitrogen were preserved in the mixture system. That is, in the mixture system more particulate OM was preserved while a higher proportion of the decomposed particulate N was converted into inorganic N. It can be concluded that during the first days and weeks of early diagenesis the magnitude and composition of the flux of decompositional dissolved N-compounds from sediments into the overlying water was influenced by non-linear interactions of OM substrates of different degradability. Given these experimental results it is likely that the relative spatial distributions of OM of differing degradability in sediments control the magnitude and composition of the return flux of dissolved N-bearing compounds from sediments into the overlying water column.     

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