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61.
Climate change is likely to lead to an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of certain types of natural hazards, if not globally, then at least in certain regions. All other things equal, this should lead to an increase in the economic toll from natural disasters over time. Yet, all other things are not equal since affected areas become wealthier over time and rational individuals and governments undertake defensive mitigation measures, which requires normalizing economic losses if one wishes to analyze trends in economic loss from natural disasters for detecting a potential climate change signal. In this article, we argue that the conventional methodology for normalizing economic loss is problematic since it normalizes for changes in wealth over time, but fails to normalize for differences in wealth across space at any given point of time. We introduce an alternative methodology that overcomes this problem in theory, but faces many more problems in its empirical application. Applying, therefore, both methods to the most comprehensive existing global dataset of natural disaster loss, in general we find no significant upward trends in normalized disaster damage over the period 1980-2009 globally, regionally, for specific disasters or for specific disasters in specific regions. Due to our inability to control for defensive mitigation measures, one cannot infer from our analysis that there have definitely not been more frequent and/or more intensive weather-related natural hazards over the study period already. Moreover, it may still be far too early to detect a trend if human-induced climate change has only just started and will gain momentum over time. 相似文献
62.
Ulmus carpinifolia tree leaves were successfully used to remove Tl(I) from aqueous solution in a batch system. In order to improve the uptake capacity of sorbent, it was modified by various chemical agents such as NaOH, HNO3, NH3, NaCl, NaHCO3, and CaCl2. Among the modifiers, NaCl was the best. Equilibrium behavior of sorbent with Tl(I) was examined by the several isotherms. Considering modified U. carpinifolia equilibrium data fitted well to the Langmuir model with maximum capacity of 54.6 mg/g. The other isotherms such as: Freundlich and Dubinin‐Redushkevich (D‐R) models were also examined. The central composite design (CCD) was successfully employed for optimization of biosorption process. An empirical model was given through using response surface methodology. Also its validation was recognized by using relevant statistical tests such as ANOVA. The optimum conditions of biosorption: pH, m (amount of sorbent) and C (initial concentration) were found to be 7.9, 11.4 g/L, and 8.8 mg/L, respectively. On the other hand thermodynamic parameters: ΔG, ΔH, and ΔS were evaluated: the obtained results show that biosorption process was spontaneous and exothermic. Eventually, FT‐IR analysis confirmed that the main functional groups of sorbent have been involved through the biosorption process. 相似文献
63.
64.
基于信息量模型的玉树地震次生地质灾害危险性评价 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
2010-04-14发生在青海省玉树的Ms7.1级地震引发了大量的地质灾害.基于GIS技术和信息量模型方法,以坡度、坡向、高程、坡形、地貌类型、断层距和地层岩性为评价因子,通过空间分析计算各因子的信息量,分析地质灾害在各因子中的空间分布特征,对各评价因子图层进行空间建模,将获取的信息量图划分为高度、中度、轻度三级危险区,通过遥感解译研究区实际滑坡分布,与危险性分布图叠加表明:本次研究得出的危险等级与实际的滑坡发生情况相吻合,为灾区重建提供参考依据. 相似文献
65.
城市形态信息图谱的理论框架与案例分析 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
本文主要对城市形态信息图谱的理论框架构建进行研究,并通过具体案例实践进行理论框架解析.首先,从城市形态的本体特征、层次结构、驱动机制三方面探讨城市形态的本体论,归纳总结城市形态本体;其次,从认识论角度对城市形态进行剖析,得出对于城市形态,应遵从系统论的认识;再次,在方法论的层面,通过对城市形态诸多方法进行探讨与比较,得... 相似文献
66.
Yury V. Fedorenko Tatiana Matveeva Elena Beketova Eystein S. Husebye 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》2008,168(3-4):231-236
A long-standing problem in operational seismology is that of reliable focal depth estimation. Standard analyst practice is to pick and identify a ‘phase’ in the P-coda. This picking will always produce a depth estimate but without any validation it cannot be trusted. In this article we ‘hunt’ for standard depth phases like pP, sP and/or PmP but unlike the analyst we use Bayes statistics for classifying the probability that polarization characteristics of pickings belong to one of the mentioned depth phases given preliminary epicenter information. In this regard we describe a general-purpose PC implementation of the Bayesian methodology that can deal with complex nonlinear models in a flexible way. The models are represented by a data-flow diagram that may be manipulated by the analyst through a graphical-programming environment. An analytic signal representation is used with the imaginary part being the Hilbert transform of the signal itself. The pickings are in terms of a plot of posterior probabilities as a function of time for pP, Sp or PmP being within the presumed azimuth and incident angle sectors for given preliminary epicenter locations. We have tested this novel focal depth estimation procedure on explosion and earthquake recordings from Cossack Ranger II stations in Karelia, NW Russia, and with encouraging results. For example, pickings deviating more than 5° off ‘true’ azimuth are rejected while Pn-incident angle estimate exhibit considerable scatter. A comprehensive test of our approach is not quite easy as recordings from so-called Ground Truth events are elusive. 相似文献
67.
This paper presents a research methodology associated with approximately a decade old computa- tional geosciences. To demonstrate how it can be used to investigate the dynamic mechanisms of geological phenomenon, we use as an example the equal-distant distribution of gold deposits in a three-dimensional permeable fault within the Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia. The related numerical results demonstrate that: (1) convective pore-fluid flow in fluid-saturated porous media is the control- ling dynamic mechanism leading to the equal-distant distribution of gold deposits along the fault; (2) the main characteristic of the new methodology is to change the traditionally used empirical, descrip- tive and qualitative methodology into the fundamentally scientific principles based predictive and quantitative methodology. Thus, this new methodology provides a modern scientific research tool for investigating the dynamic mechanisms associated with observed geological phenomena in nature. 相似文献
68.
In this study, the biosorption of Cd(II), Ni(II) and Pb(II) on Aspergillus niger in a batch system was investigated, and optimal condition determined by means of central composite design (CCD) under response surface methodology (RSM). Biomass inactivated by heat and pretreated by alkali solution was used in the determination of optimal conditions. The effect of initial solution pH, biomass dose and initial ion concentration on the removal efficiency of metal ions by A. niger was optimized using a design of experiment (DOE) method. Experimental results indicated that the optimal conditions for biosorption were 5.22 g/L, 89.93 mg/L and 6.01 for biomass dose, initial ion concentration and solution pH, respectively. Enhancement of metal biosorption capacity of the dried biomass by pretreatment with sodium hydroxide was observed. Maximal removal efficiencies for Cd(II), Ni(III) and Pb(II) ions of 98, 80 and 99% were achieved, respectively. The biosorption capacity of A. niger biomass obtained for Cd(II), Ni(II) and Pb(II) ions was 2.2, 1.6 and 4.7 mg/g, respectively. According to these observations the fungal biomass of A. niger is a suitable biosorbent for the removal of heavy metals from aqueous solutions. Multiple response optimization was applied to the experimental data to discover the optimal conditions for a set of responses, simultaneously, by using a desirability function. 相似文献
69.
Maedeh Galehdar Habibollah Younesi Mojtaba Hadavifar Ali Akbar Zinatizadeh 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2009,37(8):629-637
In the present study, the effects of initial COD (chemical oxygen demand), initial pH, Fe2+/H2O2 molar ratio and UV contact time on COD removal from medium density fiberboard (MDF) wastewater using photo‐assisted Fenton oxidation treatment were investigated. In order to optimize the removal efficiency, batch operations were carried out. The influence of the aforementioned parameters on COD removal efficiency was studied using response surface methodology (RSM). The optimal conditions for maximum COD removal efficiency from MDF wastewater under experimental conditions were obtained at initial COD of 4000 mg/L, Fe2+/H2O2 molar ratio of 0.11, initial solution pH of 6.5 and UV contact time of 70 min. The obtained results for maximum COD removal efficiency of 96% revealed that photo‐assisted Fenton oxidation is very effective for treating MDF wastewater. 相似文献
70.