2023年全球重大天气气候事件

2023年,全球平均气温比工业化前高出约1.45℃(±0.12℃),是有观测记录以来最热的一年。全球海平面继续上升,且全球平均海平面达到了有卫星记录(1993年至今)以来的最高水平,反映了持续的海洋变暖以及冰川和冰盖的融化。北极海冰面积仍远低于常年值,南极海冰面积创下历史新低。巴基斯坦、中国京津冀地区、意大利、巴西圣保罗州北部沿海地区、新西兰北岛等地遭受暴雨洪涝灾害,非洲西北部、中国云南、中美洲和南美洲北部发生严重干旱,南欧、北美、南美、东亚和南亚等地遭遇创纪录高温热浪,欧洲和北美等地遭遇寒流和暴风雪侵袭,强对流天气频繁袭击世界各处,全球热带气旋活动频繁。     

Modelling and observation of hedgerow transpiration effect on water balance components at the hillslope scale in Brittany

Vegetation has a major influence on the water and energy balance of the earth's surface. In the last century, human activities have modified land use, inducing a consequent change in albedo and potential evapotranspiration. Linear vegetation structures (hedgerows, shelterbelts, open woodland, etc) were particularly abundant but have declined considerably over the past several decades. In this context, it is important to quantify their effect on water and energy balance both on a global scale (climate change and weather prediction) and on a local scale (soil column, hillslope and watershed). The main objective of this study was to quantify the effect of hedgerows on the water cycle by evaluating spatial and temporal variations of water balance components of a hillslope crossed by a hedgerow. Water flow simulation was performed using Hydrus‐2D to emphasize the importance of transpiration in the water balance and to evaluate water extraction from groundwater. Model validation was performed by comparing simulated and observed soil matrix potentials and groundwater levels. Hedgerow transpiration was calculated from sap flow measurements of four trees. Water balance components calculated with a one‐dimensional water balance equation were compared with simulations. Simulation runs with and without tree root uptake underlined the effect of hedgerow transpiration, increasing capillary rise and decreasing drainage. Results demonstrated that the spatial and temporal variability of water balance components was related to the hedgerow presence as well as to the meteorological context. The relations between transpiration, groundwater proximity and soil‐water availability determined the way in which water balance components were affected. Increased capillary rise and decreased drainage near hedges were related to the high transpiration of trees identified in this study. Transpiration reached twice the potential evapotranspiration when groundwater level and precipitation amounts were high. Water balance analysis showed that transpiration was a substantial component, representing 40% of total water output. These results may offer support for improving hydrological models by including the effect of land use and land cover on hydrological processes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identifying effects of local and nonlocal factors of soil water storage using cyclical correlation analysis

There are various factors governing the spatial and temporal variability of soil water storage including soil properties, topography and vegetation. Some factors act locally, whereas others act nonlocally, which means that a factor measured at one location has effect on soil water storage at another location. The objective of this study was to examine the effects of local and nonlocal controls of soil water storage in a hummocky landscape using cyclical correlation analysis. Soil water storage, soil properties and terrain indices were measured along a 128‐point transect of 576 m long from the semiarid, hummocky, prairie pothole region of North America. There are large coefficients of determination (r²) between soil water storage and sand content (r² = 0.32–0.53), organic carbon content (r² = 0.22–0.56), depth to carbonate layer (r² = 0.13–0.63), wetness index (r² = 0.25–0.45) and other variables at the measurement scale at different times, indicating strong local effects from these variables. The correlation coefficients were also calculated by physically shifting the spatial series of soil water storage with respect to that of controlling factors. The shifting improves the correlation between the spatial series, and the length of shifting indicated the difference in the response of soil water to its controlling factors. For example, the value of r² increased more than eightfold (r² = 0.47–0.64) after shifting the spatial series of soil water storage by 54 m, almost equal to the average length of existing slope, compared with the very weak correlation (r² = 0.02–0.08) at the measurement scale. This indicated the nonlocal effect from the relative elevation. The identification of nonlocal effects from factors improves the prediction of soil water storage. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

冀中拗陷古潜山油田水化学研究

冀中拗陷油气田87%的储量产于海相碳酸盐岩古潜山中,在油气生成、运移、集聚和散失的过程中地下水起了重要作用。本文根据50个试样的水化学分析资料,运用对应分析方法对冀中拗陷古潜山油田水进行了分类并初步探讨了水化学成分演化与油气藏形成的关系。     

试论古气候的宏观演化

地史时期古气候的宏观演化和现代气候的变化具有一些重大的不同之处：１．在亿年的时间尺度上，全球古气候的分带产生了变异性；２．在同样的时间尺度上，全球古气候的分带出现了非对称性；３．就地球整个历史时期冷、热阶段的交替出现，不同的时间尺度，具有不同的调控因素所造成的周期，超越了米兰柯维奇（Ｍｉｌａｎｋｏｖｉｔｃｈ，１９４１）的天文气候理论。应该从不同层次的天地因素－银河系、太阳系和地球运动系统中去寻找更深层次的相关因素。     

西南三省山地剖面气象资料管理服务系统

利用云、贵、川三省主要山系哀牢山、大娄山、大巴山的２５个山地剖面气候站点，自１９８７－２１－１９９０．２－２８，１９个气象要素的逐日观测资料，首次建立了西南三省山地剖面气象资料管理服务系统。系统具有资料管理、气候统计分析、资料比较等功能，适于科研、气候资料业务管理应用．     

北上热带气旋发展与不发展的对比分析

重点分析了一个北上热带气旋（８５０９号台风）变性发展过程中扰动能和扰动有效有效位能的收支平衡关系及其与中纬地区高空环境场、Ｑ矢量散度、旋度特征和锋生锋消现象的联系，并和与此台风前期路径及强度相似、但进入西风带后很快消失了的８４０６号台风的诊断结是要 进行了对比。结果表明：有利的大尺度环境是台风变性发展的主要因子和先决条件，斜压过程是否能有效和大量地制造扰动动能以抵消台风北上过程中的能量耗散是其能否     

Going Home: The Migration of Puerto Rican-Born Women from the United States to Puerto Rico*

This paper analyzes the migration of Puerto Rican-born women from the United States to Puerto Rico using longitudinal data. We hypothesize that sojourn length in the United States is a function of both structural (macro-level economic and cultural factors) and behavioral (micro-level life-cycle experiences and personal attributes) variables. We test these hypotheses by estimating a proportional hazards model. The parameter estimates of this model indicate that sojourn length in the United States, and thus the decision to return to Puerto Rico, is a function of wage trends and community characteristics on the mainland plus a number of individual attributes that include education, marriage, and childbirth.     

不等周期断层形变测量环境因子影响的研究

本文在研究和分析环境因子对断层测量年周变和季节性变化影响的基础上，归纳出断层形变测量年周变的变化规律，并针对不等周期观测资料，建立了形变测量的准线性动态数学模型，最后，对门源地震有异常的扁都口资料用上述模型进行了处理，结果是比较满意的。     

气象因子对近地面臭氧污染影响的研究

本文通过对１９９３年春季和春夏之交的O3浓度逐日变化、日变化和气象因子关系的分析，提出了影响O3浓度的主导气象因子和不同情况下形成高浓度O3的主要因子，提出了大风速对逐日变化中O3浓度特高及浓度日变化峰值的重要作用，并指出高温、低湿、小风并不是在所有情况都是促成高浓度O3的因子。另外，雾也可以成为近地面O3浓度增值的因素，主要原因是雾内湍流发展将高浓度O3大量输向下方。