中短期数字化天气预报技术现状及趋势

建立无缝隙集约化的天气预报业务体系,需要进一步加强中短期天气预报业务技术的发展。通过对现状回顾,指出经过2011—2015年的气象现代化建设,在我国国家级和部分省级业务单位已初步建立了数字化中短期业务预报技术流程,其包括数值模式系统、客观方法释用、预报主观编辑制作以及精细化格点后处理四个方面。但与国外发达国家相比,我国中短期业务技术还存在数值模式发展水平不高、客观预报技术方法未全面深入开展、缺乏有效技术工具支撑预报员进行订正、格点化的处理技术基础薄弱等问题。文章在发展现状和问题分析的基础上,提出未来应提高自主数值模式系统的基础支撑作用,深入发展海量预报信息的客观提取及订正技术,加强开发主观和客观融合的技术和工具平台,完善精细化的格点处理技术的发展思路,并进行具体阐述。最后,从技术发展的基础数据支持、路线选择、发展规律以及交流共享四个方面提出参考意见。     

BDS中长距离非差实时动态厘米级定位算法

针对BDS常规实时动态定位(RTK)中,随着流动站与参考站间的距离增加,大气延迟误差的空间相关性大大降低,影响了整周模糊度的快速解算和流动站位置信息的解算精度问题。该文研究了一种基于非差观测误差的BDS中长距离常规RTK定位算法,采用非差误差改正方法为流动站提供误差改正,利用参考站的非差误差改正数以单颗卫星为对象进行误差改正。对电离层延迟误差和相对天顶对流层延迟误差进行参数估计,处理电离层延迟误差和对流层延迟误差的影响。最后通过BDS实测数据对该算法进行了算法验证和结果分析。实验结果表明,该算法可以实现BDS中长距离常规RTK的快速定位,并获得厘米级定位精度。     

The application of remote sensing data to diagnose soil degradation in the Dakhla depression – Western Desert,Egypt

Dakhla depression in Egypt’s Western Desert is experiencing two soil degradation processes, notably: soil salinization and sand encroachment. The present study aimed to diagnose the severity of these processes using remote sensing. Soil salinity was determined by spectral regression analysis between tasselled cap spectral transform extracted from a Landsat-8 image acquired in September 2013 along with synchronized soil salinity measurements. Assessment of sand advance rate was conducted by temporal change detection of brilliant crescentic sand dune visualized by Google Earth in old (2002) and recent (2013) images. Results showed that salinized soils (dS/m4<) represent 91% of bare lands and salinization is attributed to aridity, topography and poor drainage. Barchan dunes north and south of Abu Tartur escarpment moved at rates of 5.9 and 3.6 m/year, respectively. The escarpment protected the majority of the depression from massive dune invasion. However, sand encroachment is clearly observed west of the depression.     

Modification of strain wedge method for lateral soil-pile interaction in sandEI北大核心CSCD

A modified strain wedge (SW) method for analyzing the behavior of laterally loaded single piles in sand is proposed. The modified model assumes that the lateral displacements of a pile behind the three-dimensional passive soil wedge are nonlinear, which makes the horizontal soil strain variable with depths instead of a constant value in the original strain wedge model, and also employs two different hyperbolic models, one for describing horizontal stress increment-strain behavior of soil in the wedge, and the other for describing the shear stress-displacement property at the interface between soil and pile shafts. An example is analyzed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the modified method, and a good agreement is obtained. Finally, the effects of modifications on the lateral bearing capacity of pile shafts are discussed. The results show that the problem of overestimating the lateral bearing capacity of piles with strain wedge method can be ameliorated by introducing the assumption of nonlinear lateral displacements of piles. It makes the SW method more convenient and effective in analyzing the behavior of laterally loaded piles by introducing the new relationships of horizontal stress increment-strain and shear stress-displacement.     

Characteristics and Origin of Tight Oil Accumulations in the Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation of the Ordos Basin, North-Central China

The Upper Triassic oil accumulations in the Ordos Basin is the most successful tight oil play in China,with average porosity values of less than 10% and permeability values below 1.0 mD.This study investigated the geological characteristics and origin of the tight oil accumulations in the Chang 6 member of the Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation in the Shanbei area based on over 50,000 petrological,source-rock analysis,well logging and production data.The tight oil accumulation of the Chang 6 member is distributed continuously in the basin slope and the centre of the basin.The oilwater relationships are complex.Laumontite dissolution pores are the most important storage spaces,constituting 30%-60% of total porosity and showing a strong positive relationship with oil production.The pore-throat diameter is less than 1 μm,and the calculated critical height of the oil column is much larger than the tight sand thickness,suggesting that the buoyancy was probably of limited importance for oil migration.The pressure difference between the source rocks and sandstone reservoirs is inferred to have provided driving force for hydrocarbon migration.Two factors of source-reservoir configuration and laumontite dissolution contributed to the formation of the Chang 6 tight oil accumulations.Intense hydrocarbon generation and continuous sand bodies close to the hydrocarbon kitchen are the foundation for the large-scale oil distribution.Dissolution of feldspar-laumontite during the process of organic matter evolution generated abundant secondary pores and improved the reservoir quality.     

紫色土水分特征曲线室内测定方法的对比

为探寻全吸力范围内土壤水分特征曲线的可靠测定方法,采用沙箱排水法、Hyprop仪蒸发法、压力膜仪排水法和露点水势仪蒸发法分吸力段测定盐亭紫色土耕地表层2~7 cm和亚表层7~12 cm土壤的水分特征曲线,对比测定结果的方法间差异,并分析其原因。结果表明:对于表层和亚表层土壤,低吸力段(h >-100 cm)水分特征曲线的沙箱法和Hyprop仪法的均方根误差E_RMS (θ)均较小,在0.026~0.082 cm3/cm3范围内,确定系数R2均大于0.962,说明这两种方法测定结果之间差异不大。高吸力段(h <-330 cm)的压力膜仪法与露点仪法测定结果之间的差异较大,E_RMS (θ)为0.062~0.097 cm3/cm3,R2较低,为0.775~0.952。因此,全吸力范围内水分特征曲线测定方法的选择与组合应考虑土壤孔径分布特征和研究目的。     

强壮前沟藻(Amphidinium carterae Hulbert)在多重逆境条件下的生长和生理响应

尽管单一逆境条件对浮游植物产生的影响已被广泛重视,然而对于多重逆境条件对藻细胞生长生理的研究仍有空白。本研究通过测定强壮前沟藻(Amphidinium carterae Hulbert)光密度(OD750)、叶绿素a含量(chl a)、光合作用效率(F_v/F_m)、碳氮比(C/N)等多个生理指标,分析其在9种环境下(常温光照、低温和低温黑暗三种物理环境,结合全营养、缺氮、缺磷三种营养状态)对多重逆境的生长和生理响应。研究结果表明,在多重逆境条件下,单一物理逆境因素(低温或黑暗)较氮限制或磷限制对藻细胞生长和生理的不利影响更为显著。营养限制并同低温环境双重作用对生物量和碳氮比产生显著性影响(P0.01)。此外,低温和黑暗条件耦合作用下,SYTOX Green染色强度处于较低水平,chl a稳定、F_v/F_m有所升高,强壮前沟藻在逆境环境下作为群体的衰亡得以缓解。     

基于五种油源的中重度风化溢油的常规鉴定指标的应用效果评估

本文利用采集于我国三大油田的五种原油样品开展了长达210天的溢油风化模拟实验,并依据相对偏差和重复性限数学分析法,进行溢油风化过程分析和诊断比值应用效果评估。研究结果表明:经过210天的风化,溢油鉴定诊断比值发生明显改变;其中来源于萜烷、甾烷和多环芳烃的诊断比值变化率要远低于正构烷烃,可用于中长期风化溢油鉴定。此外,研究发现,在这些有效诊断比值中有4个变化率较小,相对偏差低于5%,保持了较好的稳定性,更适合于重度风化溢油鉴定。     

Controls on reservoir heterogeneity of tight sand oil reservoirs in Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation in Longdong Area,southwest Ordos Basin,China: Implications for reservoir quality prediction and oil accumulation

Compared to conventional reservoirs, pore structure and diagenetic alterations of unconventional tight sand oil reservoirs are highly heterogeneous. The Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation is a major tight-oil-bearing formation in the Ordos Basin, providing an opportunity to study the factors that control reservoir heterogeneity and the heterogeneity of oil accumulation in tight oil sandstones.The Chang 8 tight oil sandstone in the study area is comprised of fine-to medium-grained, moderately to well-sorted lithic arkose and feldspathic litharenite. The reservoir quality is extremely heterogeneous due to large heterogeneities in the depositional facies, pore structures and diagenetic alterations. Small throat size is believed to be responsible for the ultra-low permeability in tight oil reservoirs. Most reservoirs with good reservoir quality, larger pore-throat size, lower pore-throat radius ratio and well pore connectivity were deposited in high-energy environments, such as distributary channels and mouth bars. For a given depositional facies, reservoir quality varies with the bedding structures. Massive- or parallel-bedded sandstones are more favorable for the development of porosity and permeability sweet zones for oil charging and accumulation than cross-bedded sandstones.Authigenic chlorite rim cementation and dissolution of unstable detrital grains are two major diagenetic processes that preserve porosity and permeability sweet zones in oil-bearing intervals. Nevertheless, chlorite rims cannot effectively preserve porosity-permeability when the chlorite content is greater than a threshold value of 7%, and compaction played a minor role in porosity destruction in the situation. Intensive cementation of pore-lining chlorites significantly reduces reservoir permeability by obstructing the pore-throats and reducing their connectivity. Stratigraphically, sandstones within 1 m from adjacent sandstone-mudstone contacts are usually tightly cemented (carbonate cement > 10%) with low porosity and permeability (lower than 10% and 0.1 mD, respectively). The carbonate cement most likely originates from external sources, probably derived from the surrounding mudstone. Most late carbonate cements filled the previously dissolved intra-feldspar pores and the residual intergranular pores, and finally formed the tight reservoirs.The petrophysical properties significantly control the fluid flow capability and the oil charging/accumulation capability of the Chang 8 tight sandstones. Oil layers usually have oil saturation greater than 40%. A pore-throat radius of less than 0.4 μm is not effective for producible oil to flow, and the cut off of porosity and permeability for the net pay are 7% and 0.1 mD, respectively.     

A late Holocene winter monsoon record inferred from the palaeo-aeolian sand dune in the southeastern Mu Us Desert, northern China

The variation of the Asian winter monsoonal strength has seriously affected the climate and environmental conditions in the Asian monsoonal region, and even in marginal islands and the ocean in the East Asian region. However, relevant understanding remains unclear due to the lack of suitable geological materials and effective proxies in the key study areas. Here, we present a grain-size record derived from the palaeo-aeolian sand dune in the southeastern Mu Us Desert, together with other proxies and OSL dating, which reflect a relatively detailed history of the winter monsoon and abrupt environmental events during the past 4.2 ka. Our grain-size standard deviation model indicated that >224 μm content can be considered as an indicator of the intensity of Asian winter monsoon, and it shows declined around 4.2-2.1 ka, enhanced but unstable in 2.1-0.9 ka, and obviously stronger since then. In addition, several typical climate events were also documented, forced by the periodic variation of winter monsoonal intensity. These include the cold intervals of 4.2, 2.8, 1.4 ka, and the Little Ice Age (LIA), and relatively warm sub-phases around 3.0, 2.1, 1.8 ka, and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), which were roughly accordant with the records of the aeolian materials, peat, stalagmites, ice cores, and sea sediments in various latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Combined with the previous progresses of the Asian summer monsoon, we preliminarily confirmed a millennial-scale anti-correlation of Asian winter and summer monsoons in the Late Holocene epoch. This study suggests that the evolution of the palaeo-aeolian sand dune has the potential for comprehending the history of Asian monsoon across the desert regions of the modern Asian monsoonal margin in northern China.