利用前兆事件对云南地区地震进行中短期预测研究

对某些类型的主震事件, 进行中短期预测也许是可能的. 利用Varnes, Bufe和Varnes提出的破裂时间法模拟前兆地震能量加速释放模型,通过实际观测资料与理论公式的拟合, 可以建立主地震事件的中短期预测技术, 用以确定表示主震的地点、时间和震级大小. 本文使用的是云南区域台网的地震目录资料，覆盖的时间段为1965~2002年. 统计分析表明，在此37年时间内，等于或大于2.5级地震资料是相当完整的. 本文对云南地区的30次主震事件进行了模拟，其中25次主震事件由前兆序列模拟得到的预测时间和震级与实际值相当接近，主震震级预测精度约0.57个震级单位，假定已知前兆序列中最后一次事件，则预测主震发生时间误差约0.64年.对另外的5次主震事件，由于没有足够的前兆事件来充分确定前兆能量加速曲线或是存在对能量加速释放曲线的干扰事件，而不能进行破裂时间法模拟.本文的研究结果还表明，由于云南是破坏性地震和中小地震活跃的地区，因此，主地震与前兆事件最佳搜索半径不存在明显的线性关系.主震矩与系数k，m之间存在强烈的相关性，利用主震地震矩与系数的关系和限制指数m的取值范围，可进一步缩小预测时间和预测震级的最佳拟合区范围，提高了模拟主震事件的预测精度. 本文采用破裂时间法对30次主震事件进行拟合，80％以上获得了较好的结果. 显示出该方法在预测已知主震事件序列的能力方面大有希望，因此，利用前兆事件对未来主震事件进行中短期预测的前景是令人鼓舞的.      

榆林风沙滩区水资源可持续利用对策与建议

本文在对榆林风沙滩区内水资源条件、开发利用现状及存在问题等调查研究资料进行深入分析的基础上,结合国民经济各业未来发展对水资源的需求情况,确定了未来不同水平年的需水量和供水量,并通过供需平衡分析,提出了解决水资源短缺的途径和实现水资源合理开发利用的建议.     

A model for grain-size sorting over tidal sand ridges

A model was developed and analyzed to quantify the effect of graded sediment on the formation of tidal sand ridges. Field data reveal coarse (fine) sediment at the crests (in the troughs), but often phase shifts between the mean grain-size distribution and the bottom topography occur. Following earlier work, this study is based on a linear stability analysis of a basic state with respect to small bottom perturbations. The basic state describes an alongshore tidal current on a coastal shelf. Sediment is transported as bed load and dynamic hiding effects are accounted for. A one-layer model for the bed evolution is used and two grain size classes (fine and coarse sand) are considered. Results indicate an increase in growth and migration rates of tidal sand ridges for a bimodal mixture, whilst the wavelength of the ridges remains unchanged. A symmetrical externally forced tidal current results in a grain-size distribution which is in phase with the ridges. Incorporation of an additional external M₄ tidal constituent or a steady current results in a phase shift between the grain-size distribution and ridge topography. These results show a general agreement with observations. The physical mechanism responsible for the observed grain-size distribution over the ridges is also discussed.Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg     

Comparison of hydraulic geometry between sand‐ and gravel‐bed rivers in relation to channel pattern discrimination

A comparison has been made between the hydraulic geometry of sand‐ and gravel‐bed rivers, based on data from alluvial rivers around the world. The results indicate a signi?cant difference in hydraulic geometry among sand‐ and gravel‐bed rivers with different channel patterns. On this basis, some diagrams for discrimination of meandering and braided channel patterns have been established. The relationships between channel width and water discharge, between channel depth and water discharge, between width–depth ratio and water discharge and between channel slope and water discharge can all be used for channel pattern discrimination. The relationship between channel width and channel depth can also be used for channel pattern discrimination. However, the accuracy of these relationships for channel pattern discrimination varies, and the depth–discharge relationship is a better discriminator of pattern type than the classic slope–discharge function. The cause for this difference has been explained qualitatively. To predict the development of channel patterns under different natural conditions, the pattern discriminator should be searched on the basis of independent or at least semi‐independent variables. The relationship between stream power and bed material grain size can be used to discriminate channel patterns, which shows a better result than the discriminator using the slope–discharge relationship. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling transverse dunes

Transverse dunes appear in regions of mainly unidirectional wind and high sand availability. A dune model is extended to two‐dimensional calculation of the shear stress. It is applied to simulate dynamics and morphology of three‐dimensional transverse dunes. In the simulations they seem to reach translational invariance and do not stop growing. Hence, simulations of two‐dimensional dune ?elds have been performed. Characteristic laws were found for the time evolution of transverse dunes. Bagnold's law of the dune velocity is modi?ed and reproduced. The interaction between transverse dunes led to the interesting conclusion that small dunes can travel over bigger ones. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

具有空间分布裂缝岩石的随机介质模型

利用随机过程的谱展开理论以及Hudson等人的裂纹介质模型构造一种裂纹数密度是空间平稳随机过程的随机介质模型。这个模型可以将裂纹的微观参数(裂纹数密度)与裂纹介质的宏观性质(弹性常数)联系起来,能灵活、有效地描述实际非均匀裂纹介质。模型算例表明,弹性常数的空问分布特征与裂纹数密度的有差别,而且对不同的弹性常数影响不同。通过改编自相关长度的大小,可以模拟裂缝在两个坐标轴方向上具有不同分布尺度的情况。最后,利用高阶的交错网格有限差分方法,我们模拟了地震波在具有随机分布裂缝岩石中的传播特征。     

The effect of an interface boundary layer on the resonance properties of a buried structure

This paper presents a model for the analysis of the diffraction of plane waves at a cavity in an infinite homogeneous linear elastic medium supported by a segmented lining. An elastic boundary layer is introduced between the cavity lining and the infinite medium. The boundary layer is simulated by ‘elastic boundary conditions’ in which the stress is proportional to the relative displacement of the lining and of the surrounding medium boundary. A closed‐form analytical solution of the problem was obtained using the Fourier–Bessel series, the convergence of which was proven. It was shown that the number of series terms required to obtain a desired level of accuracy can be determined in advance. Using amplitude–frequency response analysis it was shown that the boundary layer produces additional ‘pseudo‐resonance’ frequencies that depend on the layer properties. These frequencies are almost identical to the eigenvalues obtained from the simple analysis of a segmented elastically supported lining. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

沈阳地区沙尘天气分析

本文总结了沈阳地区沙尘天气的时空分布特点，从天气条件、地表自然条件(沙源)两方面分析了沈阳地区沙尘天气的成因，总结了沈阳地区预报沙尘天气时应参考的5个因素。     

地气测量方法研究及应用

通过对不同介质地气的空白、样品的各种对比分析,基本上可以肯定:含有一定浓度的高纯的液体捕集介质在一定程度上对地气样品的捕集是有效的,并具有元素含量本底低、易操作、分析过程简单等优点;不同介质对地气中不同元素的捕获能力有差异,王水对Au、Ag、Cu、Zn等元素的捕获能力要强于硝酸,泡塑对金元素的吸附也有一定的优势。因此,在今后的实际工作中,可根据具体矿床类型,选择合适的介质或2种介质配合使用。     

黄金带油田非均质储层特征及有利目标预测

为了加深对黄金带复杂断块油田进一步开发，针对该区断层复杂、储层变化大、油水关系复杂等特征，笔者综合运用岩心、分析化验及录井、测井资料，对其沉积特征、储层岩性、物性和非均质性进行详细研究。以JASON软件为平台，对含油砂体进行了追踪和预测，并在有利区提出井位部署，为该区的进一步开发提供了地质依据。