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61.
This study used the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP) to simulate nutrients, dissolved oxygen (DO), and chlorophyll-a dynamics in the Shenandoah River basin and performed an uncertainty analysis to examine the complexity of these variables in water quality estimation and their influence on the Shenandoah River. Significant progress has been made; however, nutrient loads emitted into the Shenandoah River from nonpoint sources remain high. Modeling of three points on the Shenandoah River in Virginia and West Virginia provides an ideal case study since the river is classified by the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality as being impaired. The results of a sensitivity test show that model error decreases with increasing model complexity and sensitivity. The model predicted DO values that tended to be close to the measured data, while total nitrogen and phosphorus tended to be overemphasized. Our results examine the importance of temperature, stream flow, and velocity in influencing water quality between seasons and levels on the different sections of the watershed. 相似文献
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The objective of this work is to study the uncertainties involved in the modelling of the soil-pile interaction concerning their influence on the prediction of the dynamic structural response of monopile offshore wind turbine support structures. Two main issues are identified and addressed: the adequacy of the method used to deal with the soil-pile interactions and the adequacy of the soil properties reflecting the behaviour of the soil. The present study develops an approach that defines the penetrated pile length depending on the soil profile. Also, a parameter is defined to avoid the excessive usage of steel for the penetrated pile structure. The uncertainties are included in the probabilistic free vibration analysis and the contribution of each random variable to the scatter of the response is estimated by performing a sensitivity analysis. The results indicate that the uncertainty involved in the modelling of the soil profile has a significant effect on the coefficient of variance of the natural frequency, which is a serious issue to be considered in the fatigue life assessment of offshore wind turbine support structures. 相似文献
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海洋要素的变化存在明显的区域性和季节性的变化特性,本文选择海洋要素中最为突出的海表面温度(SST)要素作为主要分析参数,设计时空变异参数的计算指标,分析时空变异对验证误差影响的关系,通过研究及试验的数据精度验证,证明了时空变异是造成误差的直接原因之一。强烈的时空属性变异,在验证过程中会引入很大的验证误差,处于不同变异等级区划的数据,其验证结果相对误差可达13.08%,变异越剧烈的区域,精度验证效果越差,验证误差就越大,这些误差并非完全是遥感产品的误差,验证结果不具有代表性,不能真实的反映遥感产品的误差特征。对于SST等海洋遥感产品验证时,需要考虑时空变异对验证误差的影响和贡献,合理选择验证试验区域、代表性的评价数据集和科学的评价方法。 相似文献
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为减少不同气候模式评估气溶胶气候效应的差异,第六次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)直接给定了人为气溶胶强迫数据。因此,有必要基于此强迫数据重新评估气溶胶气候效应。本研究首先将CMIP6给出的描述人为气溶胶强迫的模块引入南京信息工程大学(Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,NUIST)的地球系统模式(The NUIST Earth System Model,NESM)。之后,利用NESM模式评估地球辐射收支平衡对此人为气溶胶强迫的响应,并分析模式模拟结果的不确定性。评估给出的人为气溶胶有效辐射强迫为-0. 45(±0. 28) W·m~(-2)。其中,气溶胶直接辐射效应为-0. 34(±0. 01) W·m~(-2),与第二次气溶胶比较计划(The second phase of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and M odels,Aero ComⅡ)的评估结果基本一致;气溶胶对云辐射强迫的影响(包括半直接效应和间接效应)为-0. 10(±0. 30) W·m~(-2),明显受到模式内部变率的干扰,具有较大的不确定性。 相似文献
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分析探讨了东海近海水质无机氮类测定中不确定度的影响因素。其中,考虑到海洋环境监测的一些特殊性,在建立评定不确定度分量的数学模型时,引入了重复性实验校正因子f,并选取2004年东海区海洋环境监测中不同海域的试样进行原始平行性测定资料,以A类方式评定量化重复性实验校正因子f的不确定度分量;同时,以A类或B类的方式对近海水质无机氮类测定中的其它各个不确定度分量进行了评定。结果表明,NH_4~ 测定的相对合成标准不确定度分量最大,重复性实验校正因子f是近海水质无机氮类测定不确定度的主要来源。在此基础上,计算了东海近海水质无机氮类(NO_2~-、NO_3~-、NH_4~ )测定中的相对合成标准不确定度分别约为0.080,0.034,0.10。 相似文献
68.
There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2) are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least. 相似文献
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