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21.
The mathematic theory for uncertainty model of line segment are summed up to achieve a general conception, and the line error hand model of εσ is a basic uncertainty model that can depict the line accuracy and quality efficiently while the model of εm and error entropy can be regarded as the supplement of it. The error band model will reflect and describe the influence of line uncertainty on polygon uncertainty. Therefore, the statistical characteristic of the line error is studied deeply by analyzing the probability that the line error falls into a certain range. Moreover, the theory accordance is achieved in the selecting the error buffer for line feature and the error indicator. The relationship of the accuracy of area for a polygon with the error loop for a polygon boundary is deduced and computed.  相似文献   
22.
A stochastic channel embedded in a background facies is conditioned to data observed at wells. The background facies is a fixed rectangular box. The model parameters consist of geometric parameters that describe the shape, size, and location of the channel, and permeability and porosity in the channel and nonchannel facies. We extend methodology previously developed to condition a stochastic channel to well-test pressure data, and well observations of the channel thickness and the depth of the top of the channel. The main objective of this work is to characterize the reduction in uncertainty in channel model parameters and predicted reservoir performance that can be achieved by conditioning to well-test pressure data at one or more wells. Multiple conditional realizations of the geometric parameters and rock properties are generated to evaluate the uncertainty in model parameters. The ensemble of predictions of reservoir performance generated from the suite of realizations provides a Monte Carlo estimate of the uncertainty in future performance predictions. In addition, we provide some insight on how prior variances, data measurement errors, and sensitivity coefficients interact to determine the reduction in model parameters obtained by conditioning to pressure data and examine the value of active and observation well data in resolving model parameters.  相似文献   
23.
河流水质风险评价的灰色-随机风险率方法   总被引:3,自引:2,他引:3  
胡国华  夏军  赵沛伦 《地理科学》2002,22(2):249-252
提出了量化影响河流水质的随机不确定性与灰色不确定性的水质超标灰色-随机风险率概念,建立了水质超标灰色-随机风险率评价模型。在水质单项参数评价模型中,将河流污染物浓度变量的分布处理成灰色概率分布,将污染物浓度超过水质类别标准值的风险率处理成灰色概率,即水质超标灰色-随机风险率。在水质综合评价模型中,河流水环境系统被考虑为担任某一使用可能的可靠性系统,而任意一种水质参数超标意味着河流水体使用功能不能得到应有的保证,也即表明水体综合评价超标,最后借鉴系统可靠性分析的理论和方法计算水质综合超标率。该方法应用于黄河花园口断面重金属污染风险评价。  相似文献   
24.
测量误差与测量不确定度表述方法的研究   总被引:12,自引:0,他引:12  
研究了国家计量技术规范--《测量不确定度评定与表示》(JJF1059-1999)与测量数据处理的误差理论的区别与联系。讨论了如何依照JJF1059-1999的规定,完整、准确地评价和描述测量结果。  相似文献   
25.
 The prediction of the hydrocarbon potential of a specific trap or of a number of specific traps (venture), referred to herein as prospect appraisal, concerns a probabilistic exercise based on the quantification of geology in terms of structural closure, reservoir quality, hydrocarbon charge, and the retention potential of the seal. Its objectives include: (a) prediction of the hydrocarbon volumes that could be present in the trap from an analysis of its geologic attributes; (b) the amount of uncertainty introduced in the volumetric prediction by the uncertainties in the subsurface geology; (c) the risk that one or more of the essential attributes of the prospect are underdeveloped and recoverable reserves are absent. The uncertainty of the geologic input requires a probabilistic approach, for which the Monte Carlo procedure is well suited. Prospect appraisal forms the basis for decision-making in oil exploration and development and, therefore, should be reliable, consistent, and auditable. This requires the use of a consistent methodology, the development of reliable models to quantify the geologic processes involved, and the collection of comprehensive and relational databases for the many geologic variables. As a result of data availability, uncertainty and risk tend to increase strongly from mature, producing basins to areas of frontier exploration. This may complicate management of exploration portfolios. Received: 1 July 1996/Accepted: 25 November 1996  相似文献   
26.
物理实验中的不确定度评定   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
阐述了不确定度的定义、来源、分类及用不确定度评定测量结果的一些表示方法。分析了误差和不确定度的区别。最终给出了测量不确定度的评定。  相似文献   
27.
Fuzzy set approaches to classification of rock masses   总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6  
A. Aydin   《Engineering Geology》2004,74(3-4):227-245
Rock mass classification is analogous to multi-feature pattern recognition problem. The objective is to assign a rock mass to one of the pre-defined classes using a given set of criteria. This process involves a number of subjective uncertainties stemming from: (a) qualitative (linguistic) criteria; (b) sharp class boundaries; (c) fixed rating (or weight) scales; and (d) variable input reliability. Fuzzy set theory enables a soft approach to account for these uncertainties by allowing the expert to participate in this process in several ways. Hence, this study was designed to investigate the earlier fuzzy rock mass classification attempts and to devise improved methodologies to utilize the theory more accurately and efficiently. As in the earlier studies, the Rock Mass Rating (RMR) system was adopted as a reference conventional classification system because of its simple linear aggregation.

The proposed classification approach is based on the concept of partial fuzzy sets representing the variable importance or recognition power of each criterion in the universal domain of rock mass quality. The method enables one to evaluate rock mass quality using any set of criteria, and it is easy to implement. To reduce uncertainties due to project- and lithology-dependent variations, partial membership functions were formulated considering shallow (<200 m) tunneling in granitic rock masses. This facilitated a detailed expression of the variations in the classification power of each criterion along the corresponding universal domains. The binary relationship tables generated using these functions were processed not to derive a single class but rather to plot criterion contribution trends (stacked area graphs) and belief surface contours, which proved to be very satisfactory in difficult decision situations. Four input scenarios were selected to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach in different situations and with reference to the earlier approaches.  相似文献   

28.
Weights of evidence (WofE) modeling usually is applied to map mineral potential in areas with large number of deposits/prospects. In this paper, WofE modeling is applied to a case study area measuring about 920 km2 with 12 known porphyry copper prospects. A pixel size of 100 m × 100 m was used in the spatial data analyses to represent in a raster-based GIS lateral extents of prospects and of geological features considered as spatial evidence. Predictor maps were created based on (a) estimates of studentized values of positive spatial association between prospects and spatial evidence; (b) proportion of number of prospects in zones where spatial evidence is present; and (c) geological interpretations of positive spatial association between prospects and spatial evidence. Uncertainty because of missing geochemical evidence is shown to have an influence on tests of assumption of conditional independence (CI) among predictor maps with respect to prospects. For the final predictive model, assumption of CI is rejected based on omnibus test but is accepted based on a new omnibus test. The final predictive model, which delineates 30% of study area as zones with potential for porphyry copper, has 83% success rate and 73% prediction rate. The results demonstrate plausibility of WofE modeling of mineral potential in large areas with small number of mineral prospects.  相似文献   
29.
Models capable of estimating losses in future earthquakes are of fundamental importance for emergency planners, for the insurance and reinsurance industries, and for code drafters. Constructing a loss model for a city, region or country involves compiling databases of earthquake activity, ground conditions, attenuation equations, building stock and infrastructure exposure, and vulnerability characteristics of the exposed inventory, all of which have large associated uncertainties. Many of these uncertainties can be classified as epistemic, implying—at least in theory—that they can be reduced by acquiring additional data or improved understanding of the physical processes. The effort and cost involved in refining the definition of each component of a loss model can be very large, for which reason it is useful to identify the relative impact on the calculated losses due to variations in these components. A mechanically sound displacement‐based approach to loss estimation is applied to a test case of buildings along the northern side of the Sea of Marmara in Turkey. Systematic variations of the parameters defining the demand (ground motion) and the capacity (vulnerability) are used to identify the relative impacts on the resulting losses, from which it is found that the influence of the epistemic uncertainty in the capacity is larger than that of the demand for a single earthquake scenario. Thus, the importance of earthquake loss models which allow the capacity parameters to be customized to the study area under consideration is highlighted. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
30.
River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.  相似文献   
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