长江流域径流量变化过程及其对ENSO和PDO的响应

根据宜昌站、汉口站和大通站的径流量数据,运用M-K检验和小波分析等方法,对1900年以来长江流域径流量的趋势和周期变化进行分析,探究径流量变化对厄尔尼诺?南方涛动（ENSO）和太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）的响应。结果表明：1900 年以来长江流域径流量呈显著的减少趋势,并具有2~8 a的年际周期变化和14~17 a的年代际周期变化。流域径流量与ENSO具有相同的2~8 a周期变化,在El Ni?o发生期,径流量较低,在La Ni?a发生期,径流量较高。14~17 a的周期变化与PDO相关,在暖位相期径流量偏少,在冷位相期径流量偏多。PDO影响着ENSO和径流量之间的相关性,在暖位相期,El Ni?o对径流量的影响增强,在冷位相期,La Ni?a对径流量的影响增强。因此,在分析和预测流域径流量长时间尺度上的变化时要综合考虑ENSO和PDO的影响。     

Atmospheric Correction of SeaWiFS Data for the Retrieval of Suspended Sediment in East China Coastal Waters

The data of SeaWiFS (Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor), installed on SeaStar, has been used to generate SSC (suspended sediment concentration) of complex and turbid coastal waters in China. In view of the problems of the SeaDAS (SeaWiFS Data Analysis System) algorithm applied to China coastal waters, a new atmospheric correction algorithm is discussed, developed, and used for the SSC of East China coastal waters. The advantages of the new algorithm are described through the comparison of the restdts from different algorithms.     

New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.     

青藏高原和亚洲夏季风动力学研究的新进展

亚洲夏季风环流受海陆和伊朗高原—青藏高原大地形的热力作用调控.亚洲季风所释放的巨大潜热又对大气环流形成反馈.这种相互反馈过程十分复杂,揭示其物理过程对理解气候变化格局的形成和变化以及提高天气预报及气候预测的准确率十分重要.夏季北半球副热带对流层上层环流的主要特征是存在庞大的南亚高压(SAH)以及强大的对流层上层温度暖中心(UTTM).本文介绍了温度—加热垂直梯度(T-Q_Z)理论的发展,并用以揭示SAH和UTTM的形成机制.指出沿副热带欧亚大陆东部的季风对流潜热加热及其中西部的表面感热加热和高层长波辐射冷却是导致SAH和UTTM在南亚上空发展的原因.文中还介绍了Gill模型用于上部对流层研究的局限性及解决的办法.     

中国东海2万年来海平面变化分析

拟通过中国东海相对海平面与全球海平面对比分析,来获得东海构造沉降数据。但在对比分析的过程中发现,断裂作用对中国东海150m以深海域相对海平面的变化有重要影响。这种作用使东海150m以深海底至少下降了30m,这是我国学者先前误认为中国东海末次冰盛期最低海面位置位于现今海面下150～160m一带的主要原因。在此基础上,进一步对水与冰川重力均衡、沉积物压实和构造沉降作用进行了探讨。结果认为重力均衡不足、沉积物压实作用微弱,构造沉降是造成东海相对海平面与全球海面之间差异的又一重要原因。同时发现东海构造沉降随水深呈规律性变化。断裂作用的表现结果所赋予的更深层次的思考与认识是,在17kaB．P．以前,中国东海水深150～160m一带是1个相对隆起带,其存在对陆架区圈闭和捕获中国大陆古水系和沉积物具有重要意义。     

苏北浅滩海底地下水排放及其对海域营养盐通量的贡献

海底地下水排放(SGD)是近海海域的一个重要的营养盐来源。本研究借助多种天然镭同位素对春季苏北浅滩海域的SGD及其携带入海的营养盐通量进行量化评估。研究发现:苏北浅滩海域的~(224)Ra、~(223)Ra和~(226)Ra等镭同位素的浓度水平较高,呈现近岸高、远岸低的分布趋势;根据~(224)Ra/~(226)Ra的"表观年龄模型"估算的水龄的分布情况推断,春季该海域表层水体主体流向为东北向,流速约为0.1m/s,这与前人物理海洋数值模拟结果一致;最终利用226Ra质量平衡模型发现海域的SGD通量为(46±29)cm/d,由其携带入海的溶解态无机氮、磷、硅营养盐(DIN、 DIP、 DSi)等的通量分别为(2.6±3.1)×1~09、(3.0±2.5)×10~6和(5.5±4.2)×10~8mol/d。     

第23周太阳活动峰年北京天文台太阳射电观测

An introduction to the instrumonts to be used for solar radio observations in Beijing in Solar Cycle 23 is made in this paper. They are 10cm solar radio telescope which has been used for a long time,and 1.0～2.0GHz,2.6～3.8GHz and 5.2～7.6GHz spectrometers. The former two spectrometers has passed a test,showing high guality,and the 5.2～7.6GHz one will be in operation from 1999. It is believed that highl gualified data should be obtained in the next solar cycle.     

桐柏县固庙—新集1：20万金银异常评价方法及效果

随着河南区域化探扫面工作的结束，异常评价是摆在我们面前的当务之急。近年来，随着地质工作的不断深入，我们在异常评价程序及方法上作了一些探索，下面以桐柏县固庙—新集１：２０万金银异常评价方法及效果为例，重点加以讨论。     

Radium-traced nutrient outwelling from the Subei Shoal to the Yellow Sea: Fluxes and environmental implication

The Subei Shoal is the largest sandy ridge in the southern Yellow Sea and is important source for nutrient loading to the sea. Here, the nutrient fluxes in the Subei Shoal associated with eddy diffusion and submarine groundwater discharge（SGD） were assessed to understand their impacts on the nutrient budget in the Yellow Sea. Based on the analysis of 223 Ra and 224 Ra in the field observation, the offshore eddy diffusivity mixing coefficient and SGD were estimated to be 2.3×10⁸ cm     

多传感器观测下带乘性噪声系统的逆向滤波与反褶积融合算法

针对多传感器观测环境下带乘性噪声系统的逆向最优滤波与反褶积融合估计问题 ,本文提出了 1种基于极大似然准则的最优融合算法。该算法中各单传感器间并行计算 ,并且融合中心与单传感器处理中心间无反向通讯 ,因而执行效率较高。仿真表明 ,该融合算法产生的逆向滤波与反褶积比单传感器处理结果有较明显提高