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71.
本文对川滇地区中、强震震源机制解和中小地震平均节面解分析,指出川滇地区现今构造应力场在北西-北西西向压应力作用下,以水平剪切错动为主。同时,采用极值理论、最大信息熵、线性预测和灰色理论等方法综合分析,预测川滇地区未来强震的趋势。 相似文献
72.
N. P. Sukumaran 《Journal of Earth System Science》1994,103(4):489-497
Examined in this paper is the tentative history of the depositional flux of230Thxs (the unsupported fraction of230Th scavenged from the overlying water column), for the Late Quaternary period from a sediment core of the Central Indian Basin
(CIB). The measured depositional flux of230Thxs is found substantially higher than that of the possible theoretical flux from the overlying water column. Historical records,
reconstructed from the230Thxs chronology suggests that the depositional flux has varied considerably with time, reflecting an enhanced scavenging during
the Holocene and the preceding interglacial periods whereas, comparatively lower flux than the predicted one occurred during
the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) period. The average ratio of the measured depositional flux to that of the predicted flux from
the overlying water column, indicates that the core site acts as a sink for230Thxs and based on the existence of bottom current activity; the230Thxs could be the result of focusing of younger sediments. The depositional index (Di) has also been calculated to quantify the
extent of lateral supply throughout the core with time. The estimated (Di) suggests that bottom focusing and feeble deposition
and/or winnowing processes had occurred and that the former was most prevalent during the Holocene and the preceding interglacials,
whereas the latter was observed at the LGM period. 相似文献
73.
Yoichiro Fujii 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,144(1):19-37
In order to study characteristics of horizontal crustal strains, we divide the Japanese Islands into 14 tectonic provinces
consistent with the suggestion given byMatsuda (1990). We calculate frequency distribution of strain rates using the results of the Precise Control Survey initiated by
the Geographical Survey Institute in 1973. This survey is a revision of old first- and second-order triangulation networks
by trilateration. The principal axes and principal strains inside all the geodetic triangles are deduced from the comparison
of the old triangulation and the new trilateration networks. The maximum shear strain rates are calculated by dividing the
accumulated strains with the time intervals. The frequency distribution of strain rates is counted for each tectonic province
and for the entire Japanese Islands.
It is proved that the maximum shear strain rate with highest frequency ranges from 0.10–0.15 microstrain/a for 4409 data in
the Japanese Islands. The mean value of the strain rates throughout the Japanese Islands is deduced to be 0.18 microstrain/a.
We also calculated a mean value of strain rates for each tectonic province. Comparison is made between mean geodetic strain
rates in the provinces and Quaternary strain rates estimated by geomorphic data. It is found that 0.3–0.4 microstrain/a of
the highest order strain rate is now prevailing in the Izu province, the south Fossa-Magna collision zone, and some special
provinces along the eastern part of the Japan Sea coast. 相似文献
74.
J. Gani P. Todorovic 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1987,1(3):209-216
A simple two-dimensional random walk model is developed for the motion of a particle in a fluid flow. Some earlier results for the persistent injection of particles into the flow are extended, and the distribution of the maximum number of particles in suspension over the period (0,t) is derived. 相似文献
75.
Hybrid Estimation of Semivariogram Parameters 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Two widely used methods of semivariogram estimation are weighted least squares estimation and maximum likelihood estimation.
The former have certain computational advantages, whereas the latter are more statistically efficient. We introduce and study
a “hybrid” semivariogram estimation procedure that combines weighted least squares estimation of the range parameter with
maximum likelihood estimation of the sill (and nugget) assuming known range, in such a way that the sill-to-range ratio in
an exponential semivariogram is estimated consistently under an infill asymptotic regime. We show empirically that such a
procedure is nearly as efficient computationally, and more efficient statistically for some parameters, than weighted least
squares estimation of all of the semivariogram’s parameters. Furthermore, we demonstrate that standard plug-in (or empirical)
spatial predictors and prediction error variances, obtained by replacing the unknown semivariogram parameters with estimates
in expressions for the ordinary kriging predictor and kriging variance, respectively, perform better when hybrid estimates
are plugged in than when weighted least squares estimates are plugged in. In view of these results and the simplicity of computing
the hybrid estimates from weighted least squares estimates, we suggest that software that currently estimates the semivariogram
by weighted least squares methods be amended to include hybrid estimation as an option. 相似文献
76.
根据天气类型划分欧洲中期天气预报中心的集合预报产品 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
该研究的主要目的是找出一种对集合预报产品进行释用的新方法。其基本假定是集合预报要素在一定程度上代表了未来可能发生的天气形势。为了解决天气尺度在中期预报的不可预报性问题 ,引入了天气类型的概念。对集合预报进行划分的方法是 Diday提出的动力模糊法 ,初始划分时的重心由天气类型定义 ,划分用到的距离是位移和最大相关方法。根据城市块 (City- Block)距离找出了影响中国的按冬夏两季划分的天气类型 ,初步划分结果表明 ,欧洲中期天气预报中心的集合预报系统可以预报出横槽转竖型天气类型的演变情况 ,在夏天的预报效果则没有冬天好。 相似文献
77.
The “greatest lake period” means that the lakes are in the stage of their maximum areas. As the paleo lake shorelines are
widely distributed in the lake basins on the Tibetan Plateau, the lake areas during the “greatest lake period” may be inferred
by the last highest lake shorelines. They are several, even tens times larger than that at present. According to the analyses
of tens of lakes on the Plateau, most dating data fell into the range of 40-25 ka BP, some lasted to 20 ka BP. It was corresponded
to the stage 3 of marine isotope and interstitial of last glaciation. The occurrence of maximum areas of lakes marked the
very humid period on the Plateau and was also related to the stronger summer monsoon during that period. 相似文献
78.
H.J.B. Birks 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2001,25(1):111-115
A recently discovered error in the part of the computer program WACALIB that implements maximum likelihood (ML) calibration has been discovered and corrected. The new version of WACALIB has been re-run with all the data-sets from which results based on the earlier version of WACALIB had been published. The new results suggest that ML regression and calibration perform as well or even better than weighted averaging (WA), at least when judged by the apparent root mean squared error. Further work involving cross-validation is required to evaluate more fully the relative performance of WA and ML approaches. 相似文献
79.
Effectsofmagnitudeaccuracyandcomplete┐nesdataonseismichazardparametersHUI-CHENGSHAO(邵辉成),JIA-SHUXIE(谢家树),PINGWANG(王平)andYA-X... 相似文献
80.