GRACE和SLR观测的地球动力学扁率最大熵谱及小波相关分析

卫星重力测量技术的实现为测定地球动力学扁率提供了新的方式和途径,GRACE卫星是目前最新的重力测量卫星,据其恢复的低阶重力场较以往精度得到大大提高,然而其观测地球动力学扁率（二阶项）却与卫星激光测距（SLR）结果相差较大.本文采用最大熵谱和小波分析方法对GRACE和SLR观测的地球动力学扁率时间序列信号进行定量比较分析,结果表明：GRACE观测的地球动力学扁率年际周期变化振幅仅为SLR观测结果的25%,并且目前GRACE观测的地球动力学扁率数据中含有系统输入信息和相位差,但前者较后者包含有较强的短周期（2～6月）信息.造成这种差异的主要原因可能来自于GRACE与SLR全球观测数据时空分布不同.     

大地电场变化的频谱特征

处理了中国大陆地区嘉峪关、昌黎、崇明、蒙城、兴济、宝坻和阳原等7个台的地电场观测数据,应用最大熵谱方法研究了大地电场日变化、地电暴等谱成分的特征. 结果表明,大地电场日变化主要是12 h的半日波成分最强, 24~25 h的全日波和8 h周期成分次之; 地电暴是在大尺度空间同步发生的,其谱值高于日变化谱值约2～3个数量级,主要以较长周期成分为主. 这一结果初步解释了大地电场变化的主要谱成分的生成机制.      

水牛蹄型深海集矿机履齿设计及牵引性能研究

作为深海采矿系统的重要组成部分,深海集矿机的技术研究和开发一直是许多国家的难题。为了提高深海集矿机在稀软沉积物上的牵引性能,基于水牛蹄的曲面结构特征和特殊几何结构,设计了一款仿水牛蹄蹄型履齿。以该款履齿的结构参数为研究对象,通过对朗肯被动土压力理论的优化,得到了仿水牛蹄蹄型履齿的牵引力解析解,建立了对应的履齿仿生参数对履齿牵引力的影响公式。结合正交试验方法进行了不同形式履齿在沉积物上运动的单、多履齿剪切试验,将仿水牛蹄蹄型履齿与直型履齿、仿水牛蹄轮廓履齿（另一种仿生履齿）进行对比试验,并通过模型车试验验证了该款履齿的可行性。结果表明：3种履齿中,仿水牛蹄蹄型履齿提供的最大牵引力最高。研究可为进一步优化仿水牛蹄蹄型履齿结构参数和提高深海稀软底质机械的牵引性能提供参考依据。     

Holocene peatland development and hydrological variability inferred from bog‐pine dendrochronology and peat stratigraphy – a case study from southern Sweden

Dendrochronological analysis was applied to subfossil remains of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) buried in a South Swedish peat deposit. In combination with peat stratigraphy, this approach was explored for its potential to provide information on the local hydrological and depositional history at the site, forming the basis for a regional palaeohydrological analysis. A 726‐year ring‐width chronology was developed and assigned an absolute age of 7233–6508 cal a BP (5284–4559 BC) through cross‐dating with German bog‐pine chronologies, whereas two short additional records of older ages were radiocarbon dated. Registration of growth positions of individual trees allowed assessment of the spatial dynamics of the pine population in response to hydrological changes and peatland ontogeny. Annually resolved growth variability patterns in the pine population reveal several establishment and degeneration phases, probably reflecting fluctuations in bog‐surface wetness. A major establishment phase at 7200–6900 cal a BP reflects the onset of a period of lowered groundwater level, also indicated by increased peat humification, and a development consistent with regional temperature and lake level reconstructions revealed from other proxies. This study demonstrates that subfossil bog‐pine populations may provide annually to decadally resolved reconstructions of local groundwater variability, which are highly relevant in a long‐term palaeoclimatic context. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trend detection in river flow series: 1. Annual maximum flow / Détection de tendance dans des séries de débit fluvial: 1. Débit maximum annuel

Abstract

Results of a study on change detection in hydrological time series of annual maximum river flow are presented. Out of more than a thousand long time series made available by the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) in Koblenz, Germany, a worldwide data set consisting of 195 long series of daily mean flow records was selected, based on such criteria as length of series, currency, lack of gaps and missing values, adequate geographical distribution, and priority to smaller catchments. The analysis of annual maximum flows does not support the hypothesis of ubiquitous growth of high flows. Although 27 cases of strong, statistically significant increase were identified by the Mann-Kendall test, there are 31 decreases as well, and most (137) time series do not show any significant changes (at the 10% level). Caution is advised in interpreting these results as flooding is a complex phenomenon, caused by a number of factors that can be associated with local, regional, and hemispheric climatic processes. Moreover, river flow has strong natural variability and exhibits long-term persistence which can confound the results of trend and significance tests.     

Assessing uncertainties in a conceptual water balance model using Bayesian methodology / Estimation bayésienne des incertitudes au sein d’une modélisation conceptuelle de bilan hydrologique

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainties in the streamflow simulated by a rainfall–runoff model. Two sources of uncertainties in hydrological modelling were considered: the uncertainties in model parameters and those in model structure. The uncertainties were calculated by Bayesian statistics, and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to simulate the posterior parameter distribution. The parameter uncertainty calculated by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was compared to maximum likelihood estimates which assume that both the parameters and model residuals are normally distributed. The study was performed using the model WASMOD on 25 basins in central Sweden. Confidence intervals in the simulated discharge due to the parameter uncertainty and the total uncertainty were calculated. The results indicate that (a) the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the maximum likelihood method give almost identical estimates concerning the parameter uncertainty, and (b) the uncertainties in the simulated streamflow due to the parameter uncertainty are less important than uncertainties originating from other sources for this simple model with fewer parameters.     

Uncertainty,entropy, scaling and hydrological stochastics. 1. Marginal distributional properties of hydrological processes and state scaling / Incertitude,entropie, effet d'échelle et propriétés stochastiques hydrologiques. 1. Propriétés distributionnelles marginales des processus hydrologiques et échelle d'état

Abstract

The well-established physical and mathematical principle of maximum entropy (ME), is used to explain the distributional and autocorrelation properties of hydrological processes, including the scaling behaviour both in state and in time. In this context, maximum entropy is interpreted as maximum uncertainty. The conditions used for the maximization of entropy are as simple as possible, i.e. that hydrological processes are non-negative with specified coefficients of variation (CV) and lag one autocorrelation. In this first part of the study, the marginal distributional properties of hydrological variables and the state scaling behaviour are investigated. Application of the ME principle under these very simple conditions results in the truncated normal distribution for small values of CV and in a nonexponential type (Pareto) distribution for high values of CV. In addition, the normal and the exponential distributions appear as limiting cases of these two distributions. Testing of these theoretical results with numerous hydrological data sets on several scales validates the applicability of the ME principle, thus emphasizing the dominance of uncertainty in hydrological processes. Both theoretical and empirical results show that the state scaling is only an approximation for the high return periods, which is merely valid when processes have high variation on small time scales. In other cases the normal distributional behaviour, which does not have state scaling properties, is a more appropriate approximation. Interestingly however, as discussed in the second part of the study, the normal distribution combined with positive autocorrelation of a process, results in time scaling behaviour due to the ME principle.     

Preliminary results of seismic hazard assessment in the Sannio-Matese area of Southern Italy

The seismic hazard in the Sannio-Matese area has been worked out by a modification of the McGuire (1976) computing programme, taking into account the influence of nine potential seismic source zones.The method uses truncated-quadratic intensity-frequency distribution and azimuth-dependent intensity attenuation derived from isoseismal maps for each of the seismogenetic sources. A new modification has been introduced to take into account different decay of the intensity in the near (to VIII degree) and far (from VIII degree) field.Different assumptions about maximum possible intensities and truncation of intensity-frequency laws are used to evaluate the effects of the uncertainties on the computed hazard at high intensities. Intensities associated with different level of annual probability are computed for five test sites in the considered area. Maps displaying the expected intensity for a mean return period of 500 years (pa 0.002) are presented and compared with observed intensities.Presented at the XXIst General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Symposium on Methods of Seismic Hazard Assessment in Europe, Sofia, 23–27 August 1988.     

Statistical estimation of a shock center: Slate Islands astrobleme

Statistical models are proposed for the distribution of directions in three dimensions that are thought to point toward a single source. These models are based on the Fisher distribution. The method of maximum likelihood is used to obtain an estimate of position of the source and to provide corre-sponding confidence regions. When applied to shatter cone data from the Slate Islands, northern Lake Superior, the method yields estimates comparable with those obtained by Stesky and Halls (1982), as well as statistically valid confidence regions.     

重磁解释中健全的极大似然法及三维反演

本文介绍了JOAO.B.C.SILVA提出的重磁解释中健全的(Robust)极大似然反演方法的基本原理,讨论了重力二度体非线性几何参数的反演情况,并将该方法扩展到三维重、磁非线性几何参数反演中。重点讨论了场值中有较大随机干扰、有不同类型的地质噪音源影响下的反演结果。理论反演结果表明,该方法有比最小二乘反演方法更接近实际的解,从而提高了解的可靠性,对于重磁局部异常或孤立异常有较好的反演效果。