不同强度热带气旋对中国降水变化的影响

基于1960—2017年2 000多个气象台站逐日降水数据和中国气象局热带气旋(TC)最佳路径资料集,采用客观天气图分析法(OSAT)识别得到TC降水。研究表明,中国TC降水总体呈显著下降趋势,较12年前的研究结果下降趋势变缓;TC盛期(7~9月)降水占到TC总降水的78.5%,TC盛期降水和TC非盛期降水均呈显著下降趋势。TC降水气候趋势在空间分布上以减少为主要特征,并表现出明显的地域差异,自南向北呈"减少—增多—减少"的分布型,减少趋势中心位于广东和海南。按TC影响期最大强度分级(弱TC、中等强度TC和强TC)研究不同强度TC降水的变化,结果显示,强TC降水表现出显著减少趋势,主要决定着TC总降水的影响范围和趋势等主要特征。进一步分析发现,影响TC频数在1960—2017年呈显著减少趋势,并在1995年发生突变;对1995年前后2个时期的对比研究显示,与前一时期(1960—1994年)相比,后一时期(1995—2017年)影响TC活动频次在20°N以南的海域呈现出显著的减少趋势,减少大值中心位于南海北部,而且这一特征也主要由影响TC中的强TC所决定;强TC的这一变化趋势导致了华南地区尤其是广东和海南TC降水日数的减少,进而使得TC降水减少。     

压裂支撑剂密度测定方法及应用研究

论证了支撑剂体积密度、视密度和绝对密度的概念与内涵,降低概念混用现象的发生。结合SY/T5018-2006和SY/T5018-2014两个标准,重新设计了测定视密度的方法、步骤和计算式。分析得出100 ml规格密度瓶是50 ml规格密度瓶测量值稳定性的7倍以上;用纯水做测试液比煤油的测量值稳定性高出2倍左右;选用100 ml规格的密度瓶,样品质量大于40 g后,会使测量值更趋稳定。支撑剂的密度指标主要用于压裂施工中的产品优选、压裂液携砂能力、地层造缝能力和变密度加砂压裂等方面。建议除非支撑剂为典型的亲油性物质,否则宜选择纯水、100 ml规格密度瓶、40 g左右支撑剂样品组合开展实验为宜。     

缝网间距对高温岩体储留层温度影响规律模拟

为研究高温岩体储留层注水过程中缝网间距对储留层岩体温度的影响规律,建立了考虑热对流和热传导效应的热流固耦合力学模型。以水平井多簇缝网地热开发为例,将缝网及其周围岩体简化为等效的多孔介质,利用ABAQUS二次开发功能实现了流固耦合和热对流耦合。模拟结果表明：储留层岩体温度的变化按注水持续时间分为3个阶段：初温保持阶段,该阶段储留层岩体温度保持原始温度,缝网间距的不同对储留层岩体整体温度无影响;快速降温阶段,该阶段储留层岩体温度下降随注水时间呈现负指数变化规律,缝网间距与储留层岩体温度呈正相关关系;温度缓慢下降平稳阶段,该阶段初期缝网间距与储留层岩体温度的关系和快速降温阶段一致,但后期缝网间距与储留层岩体温度呈负相关关系。空间上,在岩体温度高的区域,缝网间距越小,岩体温度变化梯度越大;在岩体温度较低的区域,缝网间距越小,岩体温度变化梯度越小。     

拉林铁路板块缝合带隧道地应力分析

青藏高原板块缝合带为印度板块和欧亚板块两大陆块的缝合区域,带区地质条件复杂,构造运动强烈。川藏线拉林铁路几乎沿雅鲁藏布江缝合带展布,高地应力问题十分突出,但目前针对板块缝合带隧道的地应力研究相对较少。本文采用空心包体法对拉林铁路沿线隧道进行了原位地应力测量,并与成兰、兰渝和锦屏等几个典型工程的地应力进行对比分析。研究表明：拉林铁路沿线隧道埋深大,构造应力突出,总体表现为最大水平主应力 > 垂直主应力 > 最小水平主应力;平均侧压系数（1.0~1.5）分布较为集中且处于较高水平;最大主应力量值大多在20~50 MPa之间,最大主应力与埋深的梯度为0.033 7 MPa/m,方向以北北西-北北东向为主。建议采用仰拱结构减小隧道墙脚处的应力集中现象。     

物化探综合信息找矿方法在萤石矿找矿中的应用

福建光泽地区是闽北地区重要的萤石矿成矿远景区,具有寻找隐伏—半隐伏萤石矿的潜力,但是目前该区隐伏—半隐伏萤石矿找矿成果较少。通过对福建光泽地区I号萤石矿预测区开展物化探综合信息找矿方法应用,探讨物化探综合信息找矿方法在隐伏—半隐伏萤石矿找矿中的应用效果。结果表明: 区域水系沉积物测量和大比例尺化探剖面测量圈出的F、Ca等综合异常信息可协助筛选、确定萤石矿找矿目标区; 将高精度磁法测量与视电阻率联合剖面测量相结合,可进一步判断萤石矿控矿构造的位置和规模; 高密度电阻率法测量可协助确定控矿构造的深部延伸情况。地表检查和深部钻探验证表明: 区域化探、高精度磁法测量、视电阻率联合剖面测量和高密度电阻率法测量等物化探综合信息找矿方法组合,可指导隐伏—半隐伏萤石矿的找矿工作。     

Concealed porphyry delineation based on nonlinear three-dimensional density-difference inversion: An example in the Beiya mine area,Western Yunnan,China

Intermediate acid-complex rock masses with low-density characteristics are the most important prospecting sign in the Beiya area, of western Yunnan province, and provide a physical basis for good gravity exploration. It is usually difficult to obtaining solutions in connection with actual geological situations due to the ambiguity of the conventional gravity-processing results and lack of deep constraints. Thus, the three-dimensional (3D) inversion technology is considered as the main channel for reducing the number of solutions and improving the vertical resolution at the current stage. The current study starts from a model test and performs nonlinear 3D density-difference inversion called “model likelihood exploration”, which performs 3D inversion imaging and inversion of the known model while considering the topographic effects. The inversion results are highly consistent with those of the known models. Simultaneously, we consider the Beiya gold mine in Yunnan as an example. The nonlinear 3D density-difference inversion technology, which is restricted by geological information, is explored to obtain the 3D density body structure below 5 km in the mine area, and the 3D structure of the deep and concealed rock masses are obtained using the density constraints of the intermediate-acid-complex rock masses. The results are well consistent with the surface geological masses and drilling-controlled deep geological masses. The model test and examples both show that the 3D density-difference nonlinear inversion technology can reduce inversion ambiguity, improve resolution, optimize the inversion results, and realize “transparency” in deeply concealed rock masses in ore-concentrated areas,which is useful in guiding the deep ore prospecting.     

Mechanical properties of calcareous silts in a hydraulic fill island-reef

Abstract

The mechanical characteristics of calcareous silt interlayers play an important role in the stability of island-reef foundations. Direct shear and consolidation tests were performed to study the relationship between the mechanical properties and the physical parameters of calcareous silt. Based on the consolidation test results and analysis of the settling examples, different calculation methods for soil settling were compared. The results show the following. (1) The relationship between the cohesion and water content of calcareous silt can be represented by an M-shaped curve. The water contents corresponding to the two peaks of the M-type curve increase with increasing dry density. (2) When the dry density is less than 1.33?g/cm³, increasing the density significantly improves the internal friction angle of calcareous silts. When the dry density of the calcareous silt is greater than 1.33?g/cm³, the internal friction angle is affected by both the dry density and the water content. (3) The shear strength decreases when the water content exceeds the optimum level. (4) The compressive modulus of calcareous silt is larger than that of terrigenous silt. Specifically, it decreases with decreasing dry density and increasing water content. (5) The stepwise loading method should be used to estimate the soil settling before fill engineering construction.     

1917号台风“塔巴”对浙江沿海风场的影响及其成因分析

通过分析浙江省区域自动站加密资料、常规观测资料、NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°和0.25°×0.25°再分析资料以及卫星TBB (Black Body Temperature)资料,研究2019年第17号台风"塔巴"影响期间,浙江沿海风场分布的特点及其成因,以寻找台风影响时浙江沿海风场预报的着眼点。此次台风大风具有影响时间早、持续时间长、影响范围大和大风强度强的特点。台风环流与浙江沿海地面弱冷空气之间形成一定气压梯度的堆积,以及后续随着台风环流的发展加强,两者之间气压梯度进一步增大,是导致此次台风大风提早出现的原因之一。垂直环流有利于水平的动量输送和高层动量下传,导致此次台风大风范围大、强度强。冷空气在这次台风大风中起到非常重要的作用。随着台风外围环流与冷空气距离拉近,部分干冷空气侵入台风环流,冷、暖气团之间θse等值线密集,环流附近风速增强。由于干冷空气的继续侵入,冷、暖空气相互作用累积并释放斜压能。同时台风低层的暖心结构被冷空气占据,高层暖心结构上抬,形成上暖下冷的中心结构,导致台风开始变性减弱。地形的辐合、阻挡和摩擦作用对风场的再分布也有一定影响。     

Intercomparison of measurements of bulk snow density and water equivalent of snow cover with snow core samplers: Instrumental bias and variability induced by observers

Manually collected snow data are often considered as ground truth for many applications such as climatological or hydrological studies. However, there are many sources of uncertainty that are not quantified in detail. For the determination of water equivalent of snow cover (SWE), different snow core samplers and scales are used, but they are all based on the same measurement principle. We conducted two field campaigns with 9 samplers commonly used in observational measurements and research in Europe and northern America to better quantify uncertainties when measuring depth, density and SWE with core samplers. During the first campaign, as a first approach to distinguish snow variability measured at the plot and at the point scale, repeated measurements were taken along two 20 m long snow pits. The results revealed a much higher variability of SWE at the plot scale (resulting from both natural variability and instrumental bias) compared to repeated measurements at the same spot (resulting mostly from error induced by observers or very small scale variability of snow depth). The exceptionally homogeneous snowpack found in the second campaign permitted to almost neglect the natural variability of the snowpack properties and focus on the separation between instrumental bias and error induced by observers. Reported uncertainties refer to a shallow, homogeneous tundra-taiga snowpack less than 1 m deep (loose, mostly recrystallised snow and no wind impact). Under such measurement conditions, the uncertainty in bulk snow density estimation is about 5% for an individual instrument and is close to 10% among different instruments. Results confirmed that instrumental bias exceeded both the natural variability and the error induced by observers, even in the case when observers were not familiar with a given snow core sampler.     

Effects of rainfall intensity and compaction on water transport from opencast coal mine soils: An experimental study

The use of heavy machinery during opencast coal mining can result in soil compaction. Severe soil compaction has a negative impact on the transport of water and gas in the soil. In addition, rainfall intensity has traditionally been related to soil surface sealing affecting water transport. To assess the effects of rainfall intensity and compaction on water infiltration and surface runoff in an opencast coal mining area, the disturbed soils from the Antaibao opencast mine in Shanxi Province, China, were collected. Four soil columns with different bulk densities (i.e., 1.4 g cm^-3, 1.5 g cm^-3, 1.6 g cm^-3, and 1.7 g cm^-3) were designed, and each column received water five times at rainfall intensities of 23.12, 28.91, 38.54, 57.81, and 115.62 mm hr^-1. The total volume of runoff, the time to start runoff, and the volumetric water contents at the depths of 5 cm, 15 cm, 25 cm, 35 cm, 45 cm, 55 cm, and 65 cm were measured. Under the same soil bulk density, high rainfall intensity reduced infiltration, increased surface runoff, and decreased the magnitude of change in the volumetric water contents at different depths. Under the same rainfall intensity, the soil column with a high bulk density showed relatively low water infiltration. Treatments 3 (1.6 g cm^-3) and 4 (1.7 g cm^-3) had very small changes in volumetric water contents of the profiles even under a lower rainfall intensity. Severe soil compaction was highly prone to surface runoff after rainfall. Engineering and revegetation measures are available to improve compacted soil quality in dumps. Our results provide a theoretical basis for the management of land reclamation in opencast coal mine areas.