Evaluation of Linear and Non-Linear Downscaling Methods in Terms of Daily Variability and Climate Indices: Surface Temperature in Southern Ontario and Quebec,Canada

We downscaled atmospheric reanalysis data using linear regression and Bayesian neural network (BNN) ensembles to obtain daily maximum and minimum temperatures at ten weather stations in southern Quebec and Ontario, Canada. Performance of the linear and non-linear downscaling models was evaluated using four different sets of predictors, not only in terms of their ability to reproduce the magnitude of day-to-day variability (i.e., “weather,” mean absolute error between the daily values of the predictand(s) and the downscaled data) but also in terms of their ability to reproduce longer time scale variability (i.e., “climate,” indices of agreement between the predictand's observed annual climate indices and the corresponding downscaled values). The climate indices used were the 90th percentile of the daily maximum temperature, 10th percentile of the daily minimum temperature, number of frost days, heat wave duration, growing season length, and intra-annual temperature range.

Our results show that the non-linear models usually outperform their linear counterparts in the magnitude of daily variability and, to a greater extent, in annual climate variability. In particular, the best model simulating weather and climate was a BNN ensemble using stepwise selection from 20 reanalysis predictors, followed by a BNN ensemble using the three leading principal components from the aforementioned predictors. Finally, we showed that, on average, the first three indices presented higher skills than the growing season length, number of frost days, and the heat wave duration.     

基于Archimedean Copula函数的风浪联合统计分析

选取渤海海域某导管架平台24年的年最大波高和相应风速,基于Gumbel分布对2个边缘分布的拟合优度检验,采用Archimedean Copula函数族中的4种函数构建两变量联合概率分布模型,并进行了拟合优度评价。利用优选出的Clayton Copula函数,计算风浪联合分布的联合重现值。以海洋平台响应作为约束条件,进行了二维Clayton Copula函数的风浪联合统计分析。研究结果表明:基于Copula函数构造的二维分布,考虑了风浪之间的相关性,在相同重现值设计参数下,可以降低导管架平台的结构响应,从而可以降低海洋平台的环境条件设计标准。     

Biomass and carbon storage of Gracilariopsis lemaneiformis （Rhodophyta） in Zhanshan Bay,Qingdao, China

Marine macroalgae can absorb carbon and play an important role in carbon sequestration. As an important economic macroalga, Gracilariopsis lemaneiformis has the potential to significantly affect carbon absorption and storage in wave-sheltered intertidal reef systems. However, detailed knowledge on seasonal biomass changes and carbon storage of G. lemaneiformis is lacking, especially in many small and scattered ecosystems. Considering the influence of human activities on wild distribution of G. lemaneiformis, the understanding of seasonal dynamics of an economically important species in nature is necessary. In this study, we first investigated seasonal variations in biomass, coverage area, and carbon storage during low tide from August 2011 to July 2012 in Zhanshan Bay, Qingdao, China. Furthermore, we estimated the carbon storage potential of wild G. lemaneiformis using light use efficiency(LUE). The results show that the standing biomass and coverage area changed significantly with season. However, seasonal variations in carbon content and water content were not obvious, with an average content of 35.1% and 83.64%, respectively. Moreover, carbon storage in individual months varied between 0.67 and 47.03 g C/m 2, and the value of carbon storage was the highest in August and June and the lowest in February. In Zhanshan Bay, LUE of G. lemaneiformis was only 0.23%. If it is increased to the theoretical maximum(5%–6%), the carbon storage will have an increase of at least 21 times compared with the current, which suggested that carbon storage of wild G. lemaneiformis had a high enhancement potential. The study will help to assess a potential role of G. lemaneiformis in reducing atmospheric CO2.     

地学大数据技术研究实验平台GeoBDA

信息化时代不可避免地来临,随着地质数据的数据量的飞速增长,地质数据也正式归类到了大数据中。应势,国土资源部地质信息技术重点实验室建设了地学大数据技术研究实验平台GeoBDA,用以解决地质大数据的存储和管理等问题。     

Analysis of Sampling Error Uncertainties and Trends in Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in China简

In this paper we report an analysis of sampling error uncertainties in mean maximum and minimum temperatures （Tmax and Tmin） carried out on monthly,seasonal and annual scales,including an examination of homogenized and original data collected at 731 meteorological stations across China for the period 1951-2004.Uncertainties of the gridded data and national average,linear trends and their uncertainties,as well as the homogenization effect on uncertainties are assessed.It is shown that the sampling error variances of homogenized Tmax and Tmin,which are larger in winter than in summer,have a marked northwest-southeast gradient distribution,while the sampling error variances of the original data are found to be larger and irregular.Tmax and Tmin increase in all months of the year in the study period 1951-2004,with the largest warming and uncertainties being 0.400℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.269℃ （10 yr）-1 and 0.578℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.211℃ （10 yr）-1 in February,and the least being 0.022℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.085℃ （10 yr）-1 and 0.104℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋0.070℃ （10 yr）-1 in August.Homogenization can remove large uncertainties in the original records resulting from various non-natural changes in China.     

Distribution of dissolved oxygen and causes of maximum concentration in the Bering Sea in July 2010

According to data obtained in the Bering Sea during the 4th Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition, the distribution of dissolved oxygen(DO) was studied, causes of its maximum concentration were discussed, and the relationships between DO and other parameters, such as salinity, temperature, and chlorophyll a were analyzed. The results showed DO concentration ranged from 0.53 to 12.05 mg/L in the Bering Sea basin. The upper waters contained high concentrations and the maximum occurred at the depth range from 20 to 50 m. The DO concentration decreased rapidly when the depth was deeper than 200 m and reached the minimum at the depth range from 500 to 1 000 m, and then increased slowly with the depth increasing but still kept at a low level. On the shelf, the DO concentration ranged from 6.53 to 16.63 mg/L with a mean value of 10.75 mg/L, and showed a characteristic of decreasing from north to south. The DO concentration was higher in the area between the Bering Sea and Lawrence Island and was lower in the southeast and southwest of Lawrence Island at the latitude of 62°N. The formation of maximum DO concentration was concerned with phytoplankton photosynthesis and formation of the themocline. To the south of Sta. B07 in the Bering Sea basin, the oxygen produced by photosynthesis permeated to the deeper water and the themocline made it difficult to exchange vertically, and to the north of Sta. B07, the maximum DO concentration occurred above the themocline due to phytoplankton activities. On the shelf, the oxygen produced by phytoplankton photosynthesis gathered at the bottom of the thermocline and formed the DO maximum concentration. In the Bering Sea basin, the DO and salinity showed a weak negative correlation(r=0.40) when the salinity was lower than 33.1, a significant negative correlation(r=0.92) when the salinity ranged from 33.1 to 33.7, and an irregular reversed parabola(r=0.95) when the salinity was greater than 33.7.     

Planning for offshore CO2 storage: Law and policy in the United Kingdom

‘Offshore CO₂ storage’ refers to the injection of liquefied CO₂ into deep geological formations beneath the seabed (e.g. depleted oil and gas reservoirs, and saline aquifers) for the purpose of storing it there on a permanent basis. The storage in this manner of captured CO₂ emissions from industrial installations and power plants has attracted considerable scientific and technical interest as a potential mitigation response to climate change. A key issue facing policymakers in several countries is how to reconcile policy commitments to develop offshore CO₂ storage with other competing – and potentially conflicting – uses of the marine environment. With a view to informing policy responses to this issue, this paper presents a case study of legal and policy frameworks concerning offshore CO₂ storage in United Kingdom. The paper maps key design features of the United Kingdom׳s framework for marine permitting and planning, appraising the extent to which they enable orderly development of offshore CO₂ storage in a manner consistent with relevant high-level policy objectives.     

商河县耕层土壤有机碳密度及储量研究

采用商河县2010年耕地地力评价有机质采样点的数据,运用GIS和地统计学相结合的方法,研究了商河县土壤有机质的密度及储量,并按照土类统计分析了不同土壤类型间的有机碳密度及储量差异。研究表明,商河县土壤有机碳密度范围为1.69~5.17kg/m2,平均3.44kg/m2;有机碳储量为0.26×1010kg。按乡镇统计,有机碳密度最大值为玉皇庙镇3.65kg/m2,最小值为郑陆镇3.15kg/m2,有机碳储量最大值玉皇庙镇3.47×108 kg,最小值张坊乡0.92×108 kg;按土壤类型统计,有机碳密度最大的为湿潮土3.46kg/m2,最小为风沙土3.29kg/m2,有机碳储量最大为潮土10.38×108 kg,最小为褐土化潮土1.34×108 kg。     

GM(1,1)在储罐充水沉降预测中的应用

对大型储罐充水量与罐基础的沉降量关系进行了论述,提出了采用GM(1,1)模型对储罐在充水预压过程中进行罐基础的沉降量预测的方法,并对预测模型的进行了检验,证实了GM(1,1)模型在储罐充水预压过程中进行等水位间隔沉降量预测的可行性。     

GIS数据与制图数据一体化方法研究与实现

以海南1∶10 000 DLG数据为例,描述了基于ArcGIS制图表达机制、制图数据与GIS数据通过模板方式生产实现一体化存储的工作方法,为海南1∶10 000 DLG数据更新提供参考,能够实现地理信息获取实时化、处理自动化、传输网络化和服务社会化。