A timescale decomposed threshold regression downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall

A timescale decomposed threshold regression(TSDTR) downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall(SCESR) is described by using long-term observed station rainfall data and NOAA ERSST data. It makes use of two distinct regression downscaling models corresponding to the interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability of SCESR.The two models are developed based on the partial least squares(PLS) regression technique, linking SCESR to SST modes in preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Specifically, using the datasets in the calibration period 1915–84, the variability of SCESR and SST are decomposed into interannual and interdecadal components. On the interannual timescale, a threshold PLS regression model is fitted to interannual components of SCESR and March SST patterns by taking account of the modulation of negative and positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). On the interdecadal timescale, a standard PLS regression model is fitted to the relationship between SCESR and preceding November SST patterns. The total rainfall prediction is obtained by the sum of the outputs from both the interannual and interdecadal models. Results show that the TSDTR downscaling approach achieves reasonable skill in predicting the observed rainfall in the validation period 1985–2006, compared to other simpler approaches. This study suggests that the TSDTR approach,considering different interannual SCESR-SST relationships under the modulation of PDO phases, as well as the interdecadal variability of SCESR associated with SST patterns, may provide a new perspective to improve climate predictions.     

Seasonality and duration in extreme value distributions of significant wave height

This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design.     

The influence of 70 and 120 kHz tonal signals on the behavior of harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) in a floating pen

Two harbor porpoises in a floating pen were subjected to five pure tone underwater signals of 70 or 120kHz with different signal durations, amplitudes and duty cycles (% of time sound is produced). Some signals were continuous, others were intermittent (duty cycles varied between 8% and 100%). The effect of each signal was judged by comparing the animals' surfacing locations and number of surfacings (i.e. number of respirations) during test periods with those during baseline periods. In all cases, both porpoises moved away from the sound source, but the effect of the signals on respiration rates was negligible. Pulsed 70kHz signals with a source level (SL) of 137dB had a similar effect as a continuous 70kHz signal with an SL of 148dB (re 1muPa, rms). Also, a pulsed 70kHz signal with an SL of 147dB had a much stronger deterring effect than a continuous 70kHz signal with a similar SL. For pulsed 70kHz signals (2s pulse duration, 4s pulse interval, SL 147dB re 1muPa, rms), the avoidance threshold sound pressure level (SPL), in the context of the present study, was estimated to be around 130dB (re 1muPa, rms) for porpoise 064 and around 124dB (re 1muPa, rms) for porpoise 047. This study shows that ultrasonic pingers (70kHz) can deter harbor porpoises. Such ultrasonic pingers have the advantage that they do not have a "dinner bell" effect on pinnipeds, and probably have no, or less, effect on other marine fauna, which are often sensitive to low frequency sounds.     

高分二号卫星影像自适应模糊阈值法小波去噪

高分二号卫星影像提供了丰富的图像信息,高分二号影像数据的发布打破了我国高分辨率对地观测数据长期依赖进口的局面。但是图像在传输和保存过程中会有噪声干扰,如果感兴趣区域受到污染,则会导致该区域内的影像信息不能被充分利用。为了解决高分二号遥感影像去噪这一难题,本文采用自适应模糊阈值法去噪方式,该方法根据各个尺度下噪声方差建立的自适应模糊阈值函数非线性处理后,重新构造作为新的小波系数,经小波逆变换后得到去噪图像。通过与均值滤波器滤波、高斯平滑滤波、中值滤波器滤波、小波全局阈值去噪和Birge-Massart策略阈值法去噪比较,结果表明,自适应模糊阈值去噪法充分结合软硬阈值处理方式的优点,既保留图像细节又使图像更加平滑,图像整体信息完好,去噪效果更为理想。     

River centerline extraction using the multiple direction integration algorithm for mixed and pure water pixels

The river centerline is a basic hydrological characteristic. Most prior studies have used remote sensing data to extract the river centerline from the open water region in a pure water pixel region. Extracting this type of river is relatively easy. However, extracting the centerline of a micro-river, which is mainly composed of mixed water pixels, is challenging. This paper presents a novel method, called the Multiple Direction Integration Algorithm (MDIA), to extract the river centerline using an image-enhancing method combined with river morphology. MDIA can be applied to regions mainly composed of pure water pixels, as well as to regions consisting of mixed water pixels in the index image. The method first calculates the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhances the river linear structure using a Hessian matrix. Second, a small window is constructed as a circular structural element. In the window region, the local threshold is automatically obtained using water-oriented clustering segmentation and prior river knowledge to judge the pixel type. After completing the river centerline extraction in the current window, the next detecting window is generated to continue judgment. The structural element automatically executes river centerline judgment until the entire river centerline is extracted. The Landsat 8 images of six regions with different geomorphologies were chosen to analyze the method’s performance. The test sites include high mountain region, low mountain region, plains region with farmland and a residential region. The experimental results show that the optimal threshold of the processing results ranged from 0.2 to 0.3. In this range, the user’s accuracy is 0.813 to 0.997, and the producer’s accuracy is 0.981 to 1. The MDIA effectively and correctly extracts the river network in mixed-pixel regions. The presented method provides an effective algorithm for river centerline extraction that can be used to expand and update river datasets and provide reliable river centerline data for relevant hydrology studies.     

长江河口潮波传播机制及阈值效应分析

河口潮波传播过程受沿程地形(如河宽辐聚、水深变化)及上游径流等诸多因素影响,时空变化复杂。径潮动力非线性相互作用研究有利于揭示河口潮波传播的动力学机制,对河口区水资源高效开发利用具有重要指导意义。本文基于2007—2009年长江河口沿程天生港、江阴、镇江、南京、马鞍山、芜湖的逐日高、低潮位数据及大通站日均流量数据,统计分析不同河段潮波衰减率与余水位坡度随流量的变化特征,结果表明潮波衰减率绝对值与余水位坡度随流量增大并不是单调递增,而是存在一个阈值流量和区域,对应潮波衰减效应的极大值。为揭示这一阈值现象,采用一维水动力解析模型对研究河段的潮波传播过程进行模拟。结果表明,潮波传播的阈值现象主要是由于洪季上游回水作用随流量加强,余水位及水深增大,导致河口辐聚程度减小,而余水位坡度为适应河口形状变化亦有所减小,从而形成相对应的阈值流量和区域。     

基于阈值光电子-光离子符合技术的分子离子光谱和解离动力学研究

对电子和离子同时采用速度聚焦电场收集的阈值光电子-光离子符合成像谱仪能够有效提高电子的收集效率和能量分辨率.利用该符合成像谱仪,开展了Xe/Ar/Ne 惰性混合气体及NO 分子的阈值光电子谱、阈值光电子-光离子符合质谱和质量选择的符合光谱等实验研究,精确测量了NO 分子的电离势,并且获得了NO⁺离子振动态分辨的X¹Σ⁺,c³Π和B¹Π态光谱.还进一步研究了NO^{+ 相似文献}   

1997—2017年塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地降水特征

利用塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地塔中气象站1997—2017年逐日和逐时降水资料,分析塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地降水日变化特征、极端强降水特征及其天气背景。结果表明：1997—2017年研究区降水量呈增加趋势、降水日数呈减少趋势,大雨雨量和雨日明显增加,降水呈增强演变。降水多见于6月,最大雨强为8.4 mm·h^-1。降水量日变化呈多峰特征,降水量最大值出现在23：00,06：00是降水频次最多时刻。降水强度和降水频次对降水量作用不同,午后至前半夜强度大,频次少;而后半夜至清晨频次多,强度小。降水以短历时降水为主,其中1～3 h的短历时降水对总降水量贡献率高达61.76%。日降水和小时降水的99百分位强度阈值分别为15.3 mm·d^-1和6.0 mm·h^-1,大于90百分位极端降水量占总降水量贡献率近半。极端强降水天气发生在南疆盆地受北纬40°以南低槽、切变槽或弱的气旋式风场控制地区,南疆盆地提前增湿,民丰850 hPa比湿接近或超过10 g·kg^-1的背景下,降水连续性较差,多中小尺度引发局地短时降水。     

���Dz�߲����ظ����㷨���ϼ�Ӧ�õıȽ�

???????????????????????μ?????????????????????????????Envisat??????????????????????????????????????,??????ο??????????????OCOG???Beta-5??3???????????????????????????????????Ч??     

冰雹云雷达回波自动识别系统

利用CAPPI资料对立体风暴进行识别，计算并提供出实用的风暴结构参数，采用矩心踊跃法和矩不变量法相结合对单体风暴和混合性风暴回波进行跟踪；最小二第线性外推预报；根据WSD－88D的冰雹算法，在风暴结构基础上本文建立了Windows98操作平台上冰雹识别系统，经单站1年11次强对流天气过程的资料检验，结果表明：雹云识别精度达82％。系统建立了大量人机对话框以方便用户，增加实用性及推广性。