An Atlas of ShakeMaps and population exposure catalog for earthquake loss modeling

We present an Atlas of ShakeMaps and a catalog of human population exposures to moderate-to-strong ground shaking (EXPO-CAT) for recent historical earthquakes (1973–2007). The common purpose of the Atlas and exposure catalog is to calibrate earthquake loss models to be used in the US Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER). The full ShakeMap Atlas currently comprises over 5,600 earthquakes from January 1973 through December 2007, with almost 500 of these maps constrained—to varying degrees—by instrumental ground motions, macroseismic intensity data, community internet intensity observations, and published earthquake rupture models. The catalog of human exposures is derived using current PAGER methodologies. Exposure to discrete levels of shaking intensity is obtained by correlating Atlas ShakeMaps with a global population database. Combining this population exposure dataset with historical earthquake loss data, such as PAGER-CAT, provides a useful resource for calibrating loss methodologies against a systematically-derived set of ShakeMap hazard outputs. We illustrate two example uses for EXPO-CAT; (1) simple objective ranking of country vulnerability to earthquakes, and; (2) the influence of time-of-day on earthquake mortality. In general, we observe that countries in similar geographic regions with similar construction practices tend to cluster spatially in terms of relative vulnerability. We also find little quantitative evidence to suggest that time-of-day is a significant factor in earthquake mortality. Moreover, earthquake mortality appears to be more systematically linked to the population exposed to severe ground shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII+). Finally, equipped with the full Atlas of ShakeMaps, we merge each of these maps and find the maximum estimated peak ground acceleration at any grid point in the world for the past 35 years. We subsequently compare this “composite ShakeMap” with existing global hazard models, calculating the spatial area of the existing hazard maps exceeded by the combined ShakeMap ground motions. In general, these analyses suggest that existing global, and regional, hazard maps tend to overestimate hazard. Both the Atlas of ShakeMaps and EXPO-CAT have many potential uses for examining earthquake risk and epidemiology. All of the datasets discussed herein are available for download on the PAGER Web page (). T. I. Allen and M. G. Hearne—contracted through Synergetics Incorporated.     

A bivariate pareto model for drought

Univariate Pareto distributions have been so widely used in hydrology. It seems however that bivariate or multivariate Pareto distributions have not yet found applications in hydrology, especially with respect to drought. In this note, a drought application is described by assuming a bivariate Pareto model for the joint distribution drought durations and drought severity in the State of Nebraska. Based on this model, exact distributions are derived for the inter arrival time, magnitude and the proportion of droughts. Estimates of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 year return periods are derived for the three variables, drought duration, drought severity and the pairwise combinations: (drought duration, drought severity), (inter arrival time of drought, proportion of drought) and (drought duration, drought magnitude). These return period estimates could have an important role in hydrology, for example, with respect to measures of vegetation water stress for plants in water-controlled ecosystems.     

弹性波正演模拟中改进的非分裂式PML实现方法(英文)

在弹性波有限差分正演模拟中,吸收边界条件常用来吸收截断边界处引入的不期望边界反射,其中完全匹配层(PML)吸收边界条件被认为是目前最理想的吸收边界条件。但是PML吸收边界条件的传统实现却存在着很大不足:全局分裂式PML吸收边界条件实现简单但是需要占用太多内存;局部分裂式PML吸收边界条件需要考虑多个边界和角点区域,编程实现非常复杂;非分裂式PML吸收边界条件由于涉及卷积运算,计算量很大。本文基于非分裂式PML吸收边界条件,结合复频移伸展函数,提出了一种新的数值实现方法,其计算方程简单、占用内存小、编程实现容易,是对PML介质理论数值实现的改进和完善。     

中国学者在数学地质学科发展中的成就与贡献

在过去的四十年里, 中国学者在矿产资源定量预测与评价、非线性地质学等领域取得了大量研究成果, 如提出和发展了地质异常定量预测理论、“三联式”数字找矿理论、综合信息成矿预测方法、混沌边缘成矿理论、多重分形矿产预测理论与非线性信息提取和综合技术(如C-A模型和S-A模型、模糊证据权模型)等, 并在矿产勘查、环境和地质灾害预报中得到广泛应用.中国学者对数学地质学科的发展做出了重要贡献, 并在国际数学地球科学协会、重要学术期刊和学术会议上担任重要职务.中国数学地质学科已经形成了一些具有较大学术影响的优势领域和特色方向, 并成为当今国际数学地质研究中心之一.      

弹性波正演模拟中PML吸收边界条件的改进

在弹性波有限差分正演模拟中, 完全匹配层(PML) 吸收边界条件是使用广泛、吸收效果最好的吸收边界条件.在目前的两种PML实现方法中, 分裂形式的完全匹配层(SPML) 方法计算存储量大、编程实现复杂; 非分裂形式的完全匹配层(NPML) 方法计算效率低、计算过程复杂.针对传统PML吸收边界条件在实现过程中存在的问题, 推导出了一种简洁有效的非卷积实现的NPML吸收边界条件, 既不需要对场分量进行分裂, 也不需要做复杂的卷积运算.分析结果表明, 本文实现的NPML吸收边界条件不仅具有良好的吸收衰减性能, 而且计算方程简单, 编程实现容易, 占有内存更小.      

古构造应力场数值模拟及危险性预测研究

在精确确定构造序列与构造格架的基础上,探索出一套从建立构造模型、确定边界条件、选取岩体力学参数与危险性判断准则、计算古构造应力值、预测危险区与安全岛的基本思路与方法。采用有限元法,建立了矿区平面应力与三维构造模型,从加载方式和加载大小两方面模拟历史时期作用于成庄煤矿上的古构造应力。根据地表岩体和深部煤层中的节理,计算其内摩擦角和岩体抵抗变形破坏的能力,获得了古构造应力作用下地表表层、3#煤层的临界区、危险区与安全区。结合研究区节理、断层、褶皱、陷落柱等构造形迹特征,对危险性分区进行综合预测。预测结果揭示,山西晋城成庄煤矿区存在先南北向、后东西向的两期大的古构造运动,即先东西向加载60 MPa,再南北向加载110～180 MPa,可能的危险区分东、西两带,该结论对煤层岩体应力集中带和瓦斯突出区的预测具有重要的意义。     

伊通盆地莫里青断陷地层压力演化与油气运聚

以伊通盆地莫里青断陷现今压力场特征及单井超压演化历史的研究为基础,应用2D盆地模拟方法,对伊通盆地莫里青断陷地层压力演化进行了模拟恢复,并探讨了压力演化与构造运动及油气运聚的关系。研究结果表明：莫里青断陷地层压力演化明显经历了始新世早-中期(57.8～39 Ma)、中始新世-晚渐新世(39～23.7 Ma)、晚渐新世-现今(23.7～0 Ma)3个“增压-泄压”旋回,现今地层压力基本为常压,仅靠山凹陷底部发育弱超压;压力演化的旋回性主要受控于构造运动的旋回性;地层压力演化对油气运聚具有重要的影响作用,超压释放期油气运聚活跃,断裂是超压释放与油气运移的主要通道,与断裂输导体系有关的区带为有利的油气勘探对象。     

低渗透油藏注采井间压力分布与流态响应研究

利用非线性数学模型,能够全程描述低渗透油藏的非线性流动规律,从理论上给出了低渗透油藏中流态分布的计算方法,分析了注采压差、注采井距和地层渗透率对流态分布的影响,指出了流体在低渗透油藏中以特低速度流动时压力分布的特点,纠正了前人在这个问题上的认识失误。实际岩芯的渗流试验检验了理论的正确性。     

松辽盆地火山岩储层三维可视化描述

以松辽盆地升平地区作为目标区,优选出Petrel软件。首先利用构造层面及断层数据建立了构造模型和断层模型,然后通过确定性建模和随机建模结合的方法,同时结合断层和构造模型建立了该区火山岩相三维地质模型,在三维空间上详细刻画了典型火山岩体的岩相特征和在三度空间的变化规律,实现了对营城组升平地区复杂构造目标区火山岩储层的三维可视化动态表述和展示。通过三维构造模型可以看出,工区西北部及南部缺失营城组地层,其内部发育由两个构造高点所构成的穹窿构造,该构造以-2 810 m等深线圈闭,构造面积32.45 km²,构造高点海拔为-2 660.5 m,构造幅度150.5 m,断层多为南北向展布,长度一般为2～5 km,断距一般为8～30 m。     

油气运移聚集定量化模拟

动态再现油气运移聚集过程的难点在于运移聚集模型的建立.传统的基于达西定律的油气运聚模拟有其局限性, 而采用流线模拟模型, 基于浮力驱动, 跟踪计算油气运移轨迹流线, 并将关于油气运聚的一些公认的地质模型转化成定量化的数学模型, 体现在模拟中, 实现了油气在非均匀介质中的充注动态过程模拟.基于此模拟结果, 可进行区带资源评价, 同时为地质家解释油气运移主通道提供一个可视化的直观的分析工具.实际模拟计算表明, 该定量化模型合理可靠, 能够满足实际地质分析需要.