Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in open sea

A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters.     

Numerical study of the meridional overturning circulation with “mixing hotspots” in the Pacific Ocean

Using an idealized ocean general circulation model, we examine the effect of “mixing hotspots” (localized regions of intense diapycnal mixing) predicted based on internal wave-wave interaction theory (Hibiya et al., 2006) on the meridional overturning circulation of the Pacific Ocean. Although the assumed diapycnal diffusivity in the mixing hotspots is a little larger than the predicted value, the upwelling in the mixing hotspots is not sufficient to balance the deep-water production; out of 17 Sv of the downwelled water along the southern boundary, only 9.2 Sv is found to upwell in the mixing hotspots. The imbalance as much as 7.8 Sv is compensated by entrainment into the surface mixed layer in the vicinity of the downwelling region. As a result, the northward transport of the deep water crossing the equator is limited to 5.5 Sv, much less than estimated from previous current meter moorings and hydrographic surveys. One plausible explanation for this is that the magnitude of the meridional overturning circulation of the Pacific Ocean has been overestimated by these observations. We raise doubts about the validity of the previous ocean general circulation models where diapycnal diffusivity is assigned ad hoc to attain the current magnitude suggested from current meter moorings and hydrographic surveys.     

The Structure of A Turbulent Jet in A Crossflow-Effect of Jet-Crossflow Velocity

A comprehensive numerical study on the three-dimensional structure of a turbulent jet in crossflow is performed. The jet-to-crossflow velocity ratio (R) varies in the range of 2 - 16; both vertical jets and inclined jets without excess streamwise momentum are considered. The numerical results of the Standard two-equation k-ε model show that the turbulent structure can be broadly categorised according to the jet-to-crossflow velocity ratio. For strong to moderate jet discharges, i.e. R> 4, the jet is characterized by a longitudinal transition through a bent-over phase during which the jet becomes almost parallel with the main freestream, to a sectional vortex-pair flow with double concentration maxima; the computed flow details and scalar mixing characteristics can be described by self-similar relations beyond a dimensionless distance of around 20-60. The similarity coefficients are only weakly dependent on R. The cross-section scalar field is kidney-shaped and bifurcated, vvith distinct double concentr     

Hydrodynamic modeling of flushing time in a small estuary of North Bay, Florida, USA

Freshwater fraction method is popular for cost-effective estimations of estuarine flushing time in response to freshwater inputs. However, due to the spatial variations of salinity, it is usually expensive to directly estimate the long-term freshwater fraction in the estuary from field observations. This paper presents the application of the 3D hydrodynamic model to estimate the distributions of salinity and thus the freshwater fractions for flushing time estimation. For a case study in a small estuary of the North Bay in Florida, USA, the hydrodynamic model was calibrated and verified using available field observations. Freshwater fractions in the estuary were determined by integrating freshwater fractions in model grids for the calculation of flushing time. The flushing time in the North Bay is calculated by the volume of freshwater fraction divided by the freshwater inflow, which is about 2.2 days under averaged flow conditions. Based on model simulations for a time series of freshwater inputs over a 2-year period, a power regression equation has been derived from model simulations to correlate estuarine flushing time to freshwater inputs. For freshwater input varying from 12 m³/s to 50 m³/s, flushing time in this small estuary of North Bay changes from 3.7 days to 1.8 days. In supporting estuarine management, the model can be used to examine the effects of upstream freshwater withdraw on estuarine salinity and flushing time.     

海南东寨港红树林港湾潮汐动力研究

在海南东寨港林市村附近红树林港湾潮汐动力测量的基础上，建立二维可移动边界有限元数值模型，研究红树林港湾浅水湖滩潮流场特征。实测与计算结果表明，潮沟区流速最大，具驻波特征，呈明显时间－速度不对称，东潮沟涨潮优势，百潮沟落潮优势，整个港湾水体呈顺时针循环。白滩与林地周期性淹没，白滩流速较湖沟略小。林地曼宁系数为白滩的１０倍，流速小于１０ｃｍ·ｓ（－１），约为相应潮沟流速的１／１０。林地如去掉林木，流速可增加３倍以上，流向也有变化。     

基于ArcEngine的虚拟校园信息管理系统的设计与实现

阐述基于组件式GIS的开发方式,结合3维建模技术、数据库技术开发虚拟校园信息管理系统的基本思路,重点研究了3维模型的入库方法,以及基于GeoDatabase的数据库设计。以VirtualCampus系统开发为例,介绍了利用Visual C++与ArcEngine开发虚拟校园信息管理系统的方法。     

基于钻孔数据的三维地质建模与可视化研究

三维地质模型能够完整准确地表达复杂地质现象的边界条件及地质体内含的各种地质构造,直观地再现地质单元的空间展布及其相互关系,最大限度地提高地质分析的直观性和准确性,因此三维地质建模已引起地质、采矿、岩土工程等诸多领域的日益重视。笔者在综合考察多种建模方法的基础上,结合工程实践,提出了一种实用的工程地质三维建模实施方法。该方法以钻孔资料和地质剖面数据为三维地质建模的源数据,允许用户手工修正模型剖面地层分界线,从而实现对建模过程的干预和控制,克服了单纯依靠钻孔数据建模结果不精确且难以修正的问题。最后,通过一个研究实例展示了该方法的实际建模效果。