利用奇异谱分析提高极移中长期预报精度

由于空间大地观测数据传输耗时及处理过程复杂, 导致极移测量值的获取存在时延, 无法满足对高精度的极移预报值有重大需求的应用领域. 针对极移复杂的时变特性, 提出一种基于奇异谱分析(singular spectrum analysis, SSA)的预报方法. 首先用SSA分离提取极移时序中的高频组分与低频组分; 其次建立最小二乘(least square, LS)外推与自回归(AutoreGressive, AR)模型对极移高频和低频组分进行组合预报. 结果表明, SSA方法能够准确地分离和提取极移低频和高频组分, 对低频和高频组分组合预报可以显著改善极移的中长期(30--365d)预报精度, 与国际地球自转和参考系服务局(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的A公报中的极移预报值相比, SSA方法对极移PMX分量(本初子午线方向)和PMY分量(西90$^\circ$子午线方向)的中长期预报精度改进最高分别可达45.97%和62.44%. 研究结果验证了SSA方法对极移中长期预报改进的有效性.     

On the “rotational angular momentum” of the oceans and the corresponding polar motion

Periodic polar motions caused by ocean tides are predicted. In the Liouville equations for rotational motion the complete excitation functions for the ocean tides have to be used. This does not depend on the fact that hydrodynamical ocean tide models do not consider the centrifugal acceleration. The observable polar motion of the Celestial Ephemeris Pole CEP (more exactly: the terrestrial location of the CEP) is tabulated for the ten ocean tides M₂, S₂, N₂, K₁, O₁, P₁, M f, M f′, M m, Ssa. Typical amplitudes for the largest ocean tides are 0.4 milliarcseconds. This is within the reach of geodetic VLBI and SLR observations.     

Strain analysis of a seismically imaged mass‐transport complex,offshore Uruguay

Strain style, magnitude and distribution within mass‐transport complexes (MTCs) are important for understanding the process evolution of submarine mass flows and for estimating their runout distances. Structural restoration and quantification of strain in gravitationally driven passive margins have been shown to approximately balance between updip extensional and downdip contractional domains; such an exercise has not yet been attempted for MTCs. We here interpret and structurally restore a shallowly buried (c. 1,500 mbsf) and well‐imaged MTC, offshore Uruguay using a high‐resolution (12.5 m vertical and 15 × 12.5 m horizontal resolution) three‐dimensional seismic‐reflection survey. This allows us to characterise and quantify vertical and lateral strain distribution within the deposit. Detailed seismic mapping and attribute analysis shows that the MTC is characterised by a complicated array of kinematic indicators, which vary spatially in style and concentration. Seismic‐attribute extractions reveal several previously undocumented fabrics preserved in the MTC, including internal shearing in the form of sub‐orthogonal shear zones, and fold‐thrust systems within the basal shear zone beneath rafted‐blocks. These features suggest multiple transport directions and phases of flow during emplacement. The MTC is characterised by a broadly tripartite strain distribution, with extensional (e.g. normal faults), translational and contractional (e.g. folds and thrusts) domains, along with a radial frontally emergent zone. We also show how strain is preferentially concentrated around intra‐MTC rafted‐blocks due to their kinematic interactions with the underlying basal shear zone. Overall, and even when volume loss within the frontally emergent zone is included, a strain difference between extension (1.6–1.9 km) and contraction (6.7–7.3 km) is calculated. We attribute this to a combination of distributed, sub‐seismic, ‘cryptic’ strain, likely related to de‐watering, grain‐scale deformation and related changes in bulk sediment volume. This work has implications for assessing MTCs strain distribution and provides a practical approach for evaluating structural interpretations within such deposits.     

Binary star statistics: the mass ratio distribution for very wide systems

The distribution of mass ratios for a sample of common proper motion (CPM) binaries is determined and compared with that of 798 visual binaries (VB's) studied earlier, in hopes of answering the question: Can the member stars of these systems have been drawn at random from the normal initial mass function for single stars? The observed distributions peak strongly toward q = 1·0 for both kinds of systems, but less strongly for the CPM's than for the VB's. Due allowance having been made for assorted observational selection effects, it seems quite probable that the CPM's represent the observed part of a population drawn at random from the normal IMF, while the VB's are much more difficult to interpret that way and could, perhaps, result from a formation mechanism that somewhat favors systems with roughly equal components.     

晨昏起伏电场对中性片离子的随机加热

本文从哈密顿原理出发,讨论磁尾中性片中粒子受晨昏起伏电场的影响问题,并把它归结于讨论标准映射的性质.中性片本身是非线性系统,外加起伏场会导致其进入混沌状态.本文计算了进入该状态的临界电场E_c以及不同E下的粒子轨迹.计算表明,观测到的晨昏电场可以使离子进入混沌状态,但远小于电子的临界场值.这样离子运动是随机的,电子运动是规则的.仅对离子的随机加热可能是导致中性片中离子温度高于电子温度的原因.     

顾及有效角动量与IGS超快解数据的极移预报方法

极移高精度预报对卫星实时定轨、深空探测器导航等应用至关重要.本文提出了一种联合有效角动量(Effective Angular Momentum, EAM)与国际全球卫星导航系统服务组织(International GNSS Service, IGS)提供的超快解数据进行极移预报的方法.该方法基于IGS超快解数据得到的极移第1天预报值, 对引入EAM得到的极移预报结果进行校正, 获得联合预报值.首先, 基于LS(Least Squares)+AR(Auto-Regressive)模型实现了引入EAM的极移预报, 相对国际地球自转与参考系统服务组织(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的公报A数据, 在超短期(第1~10天)预报跨度可以得到更高精度的极移预报结果, 其中大气和海洋角动量发挥了主要作用.其次, 鉴于IGS超快解数据精度高、更新快的特点, 以IGS超快解为基础数据, 基于LS+AR模型可以得到极移第1天预报值, 其精度显著优于IERS公报A的极移第1天预报值.最后, 利用第1天预报值对顾及有效角动量的预报结果进行校正获得了联合预报值, 进一步提高了超短期极移预报精度(尤其是第1~5天).2020年7月24日—2022年1月30日间的联合预报结果表明: 第1~20天的预报值总体优于IERS公报A的预报值.其中, 第1~10天的预报精度显著提升, 在预报第1天, X、Y方向预报值相对公报A预报值的精度提升分别可达39.5%~62.3%和24.5%~51.9%;在预报第10天, 相对公报A预报值的精度提升分别可达28.0%~28.9%和21.9%~23.4%.

     

台湾费丛峡谷对强地面运动的影响研究──利用单台资料及2．5维SH混合方法

本文通过格林函数反褶积方法,由台湾峡谷附近的记录资料预测峡谷区的强地面运动的时程曲线．峡谷区的理论格林函数应用２．５维ＳＨ混合方法求解．通过格林函数反褶积方法得到的峡谷区费丛１及费丛２台的位移、速度、加速度和实际资料对比,取得了满意结果．计算结果表明,峡谷底部的峰值加速度相对峡谷边缘为最小;在靠近震中的一侧,峡谷的加速度的最大振幅相对比另一侧大．还给出了其余３个台的预测结果,研究了它们的加速度傅里叶谱和反应谱．     

大跨度桥梁强震动数字监测系统的研制

主跨1 196 m的龙江特大桥是我国第一座位于高烈度地震区的大跨度悬索桥,频繁的地震活动对大桥结构安全构成严重威胁。大桥建设时建立了健康监测系统,其中包含多个结构地震反应观测点,随后布设了场地强震动观测系统,这是对大桥地震响应观测的进一步补充和完善。本文详细介绍场地强震动观测系统的设计方案、系统构成、通信方式等。该系统获取的观测结果,可为龙江大桥在地震作用下结构健康诊断提供依据,为大桥结构地震响应分析提供可靠的地震动输入,有助于了解大桥结构在地震动作用下的反应特征, 提高大跨桥梁的抗震设计水平。     

Observations of vertical ground accelerations exceeding gravity during the 1997 Umbria-Marche (central Italy) earthquakes

We found extensive evidence that the vertical ground accelerations produced during the largest shock (M = 6.0) of the 1997 Umbria-Marche earthquake sequence exceeded 1g in two areas close to the heavily-damaged villages of Annifo and Colle Croce. This evidence comes from the striking observation of thousands of freshly fractured and broken rocks and stones in these areas. Some of the broken stones lie isolated on soft detritic soil while others had been previously piled up, probably a long time agoto clear the fields for farming. The freshness of the cuts and fractures and the consistency of the observations for thousands of rocks and stones in these areas indicate that these rocks were thrown upwards during the earthquake, with breakage occurring at the time of impact. Ground motion calculations consistent with the static deformation inferred from GPS and interferometry data, show that the broken stones and rocks are found in the zone where the strongest shaking took place during the earthquake and that most of the shaking there was vertical.