基于MODIS数据的青藏高原冰川反照率时空分布及变化研究

冰川反照率对冰川融化具有重要影响,以2000-2013年MODIS的MOD10A1逐日积雪反照率数据资料为基础,分析了青藏高原冰川反照率的时空分布及变化。结果表明：冰川年平均反照率变化范围是0.42（枪勇冰川）~0.75（PT5冰川）,其中夏季平均反照率变化范围是0.45（来古冰川）~0.69（东绒布冰川和古里雅冰川）。冰川反照率空间分布并没有明显的规律性,而冰川反照率的变化速率空间分布规律明显——南部较大往北减小,北部反照率出现增大现象。研究区内大部分冰川反照率呈波动降低的趋势,年平均反照率和夏季平均反照率变化速率最大值都出现在枪勇冰川,分别是-0.015 a^-1和-0.019 a^-1。木吉和木孜塔格冰川年平均和夏季平均冰川反照率都增大,木吉冰川是由于2012年的高反照率引起的,而木孜塔格冰川主要与该地区气温降低、降水增多有关。     

中国西部寒区流域冰川水文调节功能研究

冰川作为固体水库以“削峰填谷”的形式显著调节径流丰枯变化,冰川的水文调节功能对于中国西北干旱区至关重要。使用现有VIC-CAS模型模拟得到中国西部寒区2014—2100年径流预估数据,从趋势和波动变化相结合的视角,基于径流变差系数法,构建了冰川水文调节指数（Glacier_R）,分析了9个寒区流域冰川径流变化的稳定性,详细剖析了历史时期（1971—2010年）和未来到21世纪末这些流域冰川水文调节功能的强弱变化。结果表明：历史时期及RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,除长江流域外,青藏高原其余流域的冰川径流减小时间节点为2020s,西北内陆河流域则为2010s。历史时期及RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下至21世纪末,尽管西部寒区大部分流域的冰川径流呈减少趋势,但波动幅度减小或无明显变化,冰川径流稳定性增强或无变化。总体上,西北内陆河流域的冰川水文调节功能较高,青藏高原流域的冰川水文调节功能较低。RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,至21世纪末,西部寒区各流域冰川水文调节功能均呈现减弱趋势,西北内陆河流域减弱更加显著,如RCP4.5情景下,木扎提河冰川水文调节功能降幅达25.4%,而青藏高原各流域的冰川水文调节功能一直处于较低水平。从年代际变化来看,1970s—2010s是寒区流域冰川水文调节功能较强的时期,1980s和2000s两个时段冰川水文调节功能尤强;RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,未来到21世纪末,冰川调节功能明显减弱。减弱的时间节点不同,最早为1970s,最晚为2020s。     

基于F-MCDM的冰川旅游游客满意度综合评价及敏感性分析

游客满意度是衡量旅游地竞争力的关键因素之一,已受到众多旅游研究者的关注。在其热点研究中,有关冰川旅游游客满意度及不同游客属性间满意度差异的研究鲜见。选取达古冰川与海螺沟冰川为研究区,通过对游客属性细分,运用模糊多准则决策法（F-MCDM）及引入需求弹性理论对冰川旅游游客满意度进行了综合评价和敏感性分析,探讨了提升冰川旅游游客满意度的对策建议。结果表明：达古冰川游客实际满意度总体高于海螺沟冰川,两地均以管理与服务的满意度最高,消费状况与交通的满意度最低。就游客属性的相对满意度而言,两地均呈现男性满意度高于女性,高消费游客满意度高于低消费游客,高忠诚度游客满意度高于低忠诚度游客;两地相对满意度的差异表现在年龄、受教育程度、客源地和到访次数方面。相较于达古冰川,海螺沟冰川满意度敏感性更高,同等改进力度下游客满意度的提高更为明显高效,就两地满意度敏感性最高的景观特色而言,达古冰川1%的改善将提升游客满意度0.30%,而海螺沟冰川可提升0.45%;对于不同游客属性的满意度敏感性,两地均以不愿推荐、不愿重游和未达到期望的游客最高。最后依据满意度敏感性分析结果,为两地冰川旅游发展提出了关键属性改进、营销策略创新和旅游产品开发等针对性建议。     

HYDROCHEMISTRY AS AN INDICATOR OF SUBGLACIAL DRAINAGE SYSTEM STRUCTURE: A COMPARISON OF ALPINE AND SUB-POLAR ENVIRONMENTS

The anion compositions (SO²₄, HCO⁻₃ and Cl⁻) of runoff from the Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland and Austre Brøggerbreen, Svalbard are compared to assess whether or not variations in water chemistry with discharge are consistent with current understanding of the subglacial drainage structure of warm- and polythermal-based glaciers. These glacial catchments have very different bedrocks and the subglacial drainage structures are also believed to be different, yet the range of anion concentrations show considerable overlap for SO²⁻₄ and HCO⁻₃. Concentrations of Cl⁻ are higher at Austre Brøggerbreen because of the maritime location of the glacier. Correcting SO²⁻₄ for the snowpack component reveals that the variation in non-snowpack SO²⁻₄ with discharge and with HCO⁻₃ is similar to that observed at the Haut Glacier d'Arolla. Hence, if we assume that the provenance of the non-snowpack SO²⁻₄ is the same in both glacial drainage systems, a distributed drainage system also contributes to runoff at Austre Brøggerbreen. We have no independent means of testing the assumption at present. The lower concentrations of non-snowpack SO²⁻₄ at Austre Brøggerbreen may suggest that a smaller proportion of runoff originates from a distributed drainage system than at the Haut Glacier d'Arolla.     

CHANGES IN GLACIER AND ALPINE RUNOFF IN THE NORTH CASCADE RANGE,WASHINGTON, USA 1985–1993

From 1985 to 1993, the mean summer temperature was 1.1°C above the long-term mean and the mean winter precipitation was 11% below the long-term mean at the eight Washington State Cascade Mountain weather stations. The effect of this climate fluctuation on glacier and alpine runoff has been examined in five North Cascade basins. From 1985 to 1993 the two basins with less than 1% glacier-covered area experienced mean 1 July to 30 September (late summer) runoff 36% below the long-term mean. The three moderately glaciated basins (3, 6 and 14% glaciated, respectively) experienced a 13% decline in late summer runoff for the same period. A significant change in late summer runoff has occurred in the North Cascades and this change is less pronounced in glacier basins. The cause of the change is decreased winter precipitation and earlier onset of spring melting of the alpine snowpack, followed by above average summer temperatures and an earlier summer melt of alpine snowpack. The smaller decrease in runoff in glacial basins is due to increased ablation and consequent glacier runoff due to high summer temperatures. However, glacier retreat is also reducing glacier runoff.     

VELOCITY–DISCHARGE RELATIONSHIPS DERIVED FROM DYE TRACER EXPERIMENTS IN GLACIAL MELTWATERS: IMPLICATIONS FOR SUBGLACIAL FLOW CONDITIONS

Repeated dye tracer tests were undertaken from individual moulins at Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland, over a number of diurnal discharge cycles during the summers of 1989–1991. It was hoped to use the concepts of at-a-station hydraulic geometry to infer flow conditions in subglacial channels from the form of the velocity–discharge relationships derived from these tests. The results, however, displayed both clockwise and anticlockwise velocity–discharge hysteresis, in addition to the simple power function relationship assumed in the hydraulic geometry approach. Clockwise hysteresis seems to indicate that a moulin drains into a small tributary channel rather than directly into an arterial channel, and that discharges in the two channels vary out of phase with each other. Anticlockwise hysteresis is accompanied by strong diurnal variations in the value of dispersivity derived from the dye breakthrough curve, and is best explained by hydraulic damming of moulins or sub/englacial passageways. Despite the complex velocity–discharge relationships observed, some indication of subglacial flow conditions may be obtained if tributary channels comprise only a small fraction of the drainage path and power function velocity–discharge relationships are derived from dye injections conducted during periods when the supraglacial discharge entering the moulin and the bulk discharge vary in phase. Analyses based on this premise suggest that both open and closed channel flow occur beneath Haut Glacier d'Arolla, and that flow conditions are highly variable at and between sites.     

The quaternary glacial history of the Lahul Himalaya,northern India

This paper presents the first glacial chronology for the Lahul Himalaya, Northern India. The oldest glaciation, the Chandra Glacial Stage, is represented by glacially eroded benches at altitudes greater than 4300 m above sea-level. This glaciation was probably of a broad valley type. The second glaciation, the Batal Glacial Stage, is represented by highly weathered and dissected lateral moraines, which are present along the Chandra valley and some of its tributaries. This was an extensive valley glaciation. The third major glaciation, the Kulti Glacial Stage, is represented by well-preserved moraines in the main tributary valleys of the Chandra valley. This represents a less extensive valley glaciation. Two minor glacial advances, the Sonapani I and II, are represented by small sharp-crested moraines, which are within a few hundred metres or few kilometres of the present-day glaciers. The change in style and extent of glaciation is attributed to an increase in aridity throughout the Quaternary, due either to global climatic change or uplift of the Pir Panjal mountains to the south of Lahul, which restricted the northward penetration of the south Asian summer monsoon. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

全球海平面变化研究新进展

综述了近10年来海平面变化研究的主要成果,分析了影响海平面变化的主要因素,探讨了海平面变化研究中存在的一些问题。结果表明：①近10年全球平均海平面上升幅度大约为2.5~3.84 mm/a,热膨胀是引起海平面上升的主因;②海平面变化具有时空分布差异——西太平洋和东印度洋地区上升最快,其值高出全球平均值的10倍以上;大西洋与太平洋30~40°N地区季节变化最明显;③将海平面季节高值时段与北半球热带气旋出现时间进行对比,发现每年8~10月份,在20~50°N的西北太平洋与北大西洋沿岸地区出现海平面最高值与热带气旋相叠加的全球危险海岸带,该地带包括中国大陆东部、日本沿海地区、美国东部海岸带、墨西哥湾地区和加勒比海地区。     

三极地区雪冰中黑碳研究进展

黑碳被认为是除温室气体外对气候变暖贡献最大的辐射强迫因子.三极(北极、南极和青藏高原)地区是全球雪冰分布最集中的区域,沉积至雪冰中的黑碳可反映人类活动的历史变化,并可能导致反照率降低而影响物质能量平衡.通过系统回顾三极地区雪冰黑碳的研究方法、空间分布、时间变化及其造成的辐射强迫,得到的研究结果表明:由于处于不同的地理位...     

无人船现状及发展趋势综述

无人船是海洋技术发展的产物,作为一种新型技术手段目前已在海洋调测和防务领域广泛应用.本文从无人船系统的组成、应用领域和发展现状出发,归纳总结无人船的关键技术,并研究其发展趋势.作为一种水面机动载体,无人船关键技术包括特型平台设计技术、运动控制技术和通信技术3个方面,其核心是围绕任务内容、载荷原理、使用环境特点,以应用设计、功能开发为主体的系统集成和应用.现阶段无人船主要作为传统海上工作方法的补充,在遵守、参照现有各种法规、技术标准要求的前提下,搭载已成型的船用任务载荷,按照载人船舶的作业模式、施工惯例投入各种应用.未来随着材料技术、人工智能、通信技术的发展,以及相关政策、法规的建立、健全,无人船将逐步成为一种独立的技术手段,形成一系列新的作业模式和技术方法.