基于SPC控制图与加权决策树识别海上油气井生产异常

中国很多海上油田已进入开采中后期,设备设施普遍老化,故障概率加大。由于海上油气井生产维护成本高昂,对油气井潜在故障的准确识别至关重要。通过对标准SPC控制图进行优化,建立适合海上油气井的生产参数预警模型,自动判断海上油气井生产参数异常。同时,结合业务专家经验,提出一种基于加权决策树的组合参数故障诊断模型,预测所发生的故障类型。该预警模型提高了海上油气井故障识别的时效性和准确率。通过在南海西部海域油气井的应用实践,该模型可以缩短措施反应周期至少8.4天,预警成功率91.18%,可见该模型能够实现油气井生产异常和故障的智能识别,保障海上油气井的高产稳产。     

基于GIS和模糊逻辑的地热资源潜力评价

地热资源的开发利用存在很大的不确定性和很高的经济风险,基于GIS模型化技术建立已知地热点与证据因子图之间的空间联系,对研究区的地热资源潜力进行评价。本文选取地震震中、断裂、布格重力异常、磁异常、侵入岩和大地热流等多个证据因子,构建模糊逻辑模型并在土耳其西安纳托利亚典型地热场地进行验证,然后将其应用于福建省地热潜力评价。将福建省地热潜力分为极高、高、中、低潜力区。其中,极高和高潜力区面积占28.24%,预测到59.11%的已知地热点。研究成果对隐伏型地热开发具有理论和实际意义。     

全球地图第一版中国土地覆盖产品的生成

介绍了全球地图第一版中国土地覆盖分类产品的遥感数据源、数据处理方法及结果,详细介绍了非监督聚类和决策树分类相结合的区域级土地覆盖分类方法及处理步骤,并以2003年全年的MODIS/TERRA16d合成产品MOD43B4为主要遥感数据源,采用先进行影像聚类,然后以聚类结果为处理单元进行多时相多特征决策树分类,得到了覆盖全国、约1km分辨率的土地覆盖分类结果。采用室内精度评定和外业验证两种方法对分类结果进行了检验,生成的中国土地覆盖分类产品的精度为89.14%。     

基于CART决策树的河北省低能见度分类研究

基于2016—2019年河北省142个国家气象站逐小时观测数据,通过EOF时空正交分解和CART决策树分类回归等方法,针对低能见度高发区域构建能见度预报模型,并进行拟合检验。结果表明：河北省雾日时空分布特征显示除张家口、承德及秦皇岛三市外,40°N以南地区为雾日高发区域,多年平均雾日数最高值可达50 d。相对湿度、地表温度、风速等气象要素与能见度显著相关,将显著相关因子作为输入变量建立能见度预报模型并调参,经检验该模型对于冬季的预报效果较好,有较高的准确率;夏季误报率较低;日夜差别在夏季并不明显,三个指数差别不大,冬季夜晚的准确率与误报率明显优于白天,漏报率略高。石家庄站2019年12月7—10日的三次大雾过程拟合结果较好,有雾时次无漏报。     

Decision making under uncertainty in climate change mitigation: introducing multiple actor motivations,agency and influence

Climate change mitigation has two main characteristics that interact to make it an extremely demanding challenge of governance: the complexity of the socio-technical systems that must be transformed to avoid climate change and the presence of profound uncertainties. A number of tools and approaches exist, which aim to help manage these challenges and support long-term decision making. However, most tools and approaches assume that there is one decision maker with clearly defined objectives. The interaction between decision makers with differing perspectives and agency is an additional uncertainty that is rarely addressed, despite the wide recognition that action is required at multiple scales and by multiple actors. This article draws inspiration from dynamic adaptive policy pathways to build on current decision support methods, extending analysis to include the perspectives and agency of multiple actors through a case study of the UK construction sector. The findings demonstrate the importance of considering alignment between perspectives, agency and potential actions when developing plans; the need for mobilizing and advocacy actions to build momentum for radical change; and the crucial influence of interaction between actors. The decision support approach presented could improve decision making by reflecting the diversity and interaction of actors; identifying short-term actions that connect to long-term goals and keeping future options open.

Key policy insights

• Multiple actors, with differing motivations, agency and influence, must engage with climate change mitigation, but may not do so, if proposed actions do not align with their motivations or if they do not have agency to undertake specific actions.

• Current roadmaps, which assume there is one decision maker with control over a whole system, might overstate how effective proposed actions could be.

• Decision making under deep uncertainty needs to account for the motivations and agency of diverse decision makers and the interaction between these decision makers.

• This could increase the implementation and effectiveness of mitigation activities.

     

太湖流域高度城镇化地区畅流活水多目标调度决策研究

随着城市化进程的加快,高污染负荷、弱水动力条件、强人工干预导致的平原河网地区河道水质恶化、生态衰退已成为制约城市高质量发展的瓶颈之一。结合太湖流域高度城镇化地区水文水动力特性,构建了水动力-水质耦合模型,模拟了不同情景下河网水动力与水质情况。统筹考虑水质改善、水动力提升、经济成本等多目标,建立了活水调度多目标决策体系,基于模糊层次分析法确定评价体系水质改善、水动力提升与经济成本指标层权重分别为0.390、0.345、0.265,为各指标层设计对应的要素层,并利用模糊综合评价法进行评价。结果表明,针对不同调度情景下水质改善、水动力提升及经济成本等多目标的决策,利用多目标调度决策方法可有效确定效果最佳的工程调度情形。太湖流域高度城镇化地区区域性控制工程对畅流活水效果的影响要远大于锡山区控制工程,运东大包围城市防洪工程调度模式对研究区活水效果的影响最大。比选出的最优活水方案实现的研究区活水效果为水质达标率82%,水质平均提升率31%,Ⅲ类水断面占比61%,平均流速0.10 m/s,较优流速占比39%,滞水率32%。相较于传统的单指标或多指标简单比较的决策方法,多目标调度决策方法更具有综合性、...     

关于一般建筑物抗震设防标准问题

工程场地的设计地震动参数,目前多用概率地震危险性分析的方法给出。场地的地震基本烈度以设计基准期T=50年、加速度超越概率P=0.1的标准确定。本文根据广东省数地地震危险性分析结果结合我国常见的砖混结构的地震动参数的优化决策,认为上述标准宜取为T=50年、P=0.05—0.1。     

短临地震预报决策及其实施程序的研究

短临地震预报决策正确与否是减轻地震灾害的关键所在。本文根据决策学的基本原理及国内的地震预报实践,探讨了政府和地震部门首脑进行地震短临预报决策的基本原则、条件和程序,同时提出了短临地震预报决策模式、三级备震程序和7条对策措施。     

Some Considerations on Earthquake Prediction Decision Process

A theory on information prediction process proposed by Weng Wenpo(1991)is applied to the earthquake prediction decision process.Four cycles represent the theory(conception),earthquake prediction decision result,anomalies,and earthquake assemblage,respectively.The interception and overlapping of the four cycles indicate different combinations,resulting in formation of 13 regions.In the case of decision conclusion on earthquake to occur,seven decision results of different characters are distinguished.The six other results were obtained in the case of absence of decision.Results of four characters show correct decision on earthquake to occur and those of three characters show the erroneous decision on earthquake to occur.Until now,theories of earthquake prediction have been incomplete,and the coincidence ratio of decision on earthquake to occur is also considerably low.Systematic analysis of the decision process is beneficial to understanding the causes for missing,virtual,pseudo,false,and correct earthqua     

多普勒雷达特征参数在人工防雹决策中的应用

对大连地区2003—2008年多普勒雷达观测到的37个冰雹和强雷雨个例雷达体扫资料进行PUP软件计算和处理,得到了每个个例雷达回波强度、回波顶高、30 dBz强回波中心高度、强回波顶高和垂直积分液态水含量几个主要雷达参数值、以及各参数随时间的变化特征,总结了冰雹云识别的雷达技术指标模型;根据大连地区降雹特点,将冰雹云分为强(超级单体)雹云、多单体雹云和单体雹云三类,总结了冰雹云类型判别的雷达指标(即防雹作业决策指标)。