Flood-type trend analysis for alpine catchments

ABSTRACT

In many places, magnitudes and frequencies of floods are expected to increase due to climate change. To understand these changes better, trend analyses of historical data are helpful. However, traditional trend analyses do not address issues related to shifts in the relative contributions of rainfall versus snowmelt floods, or in the frequency of a particular flood type. We present a novel approach for quantifying such trends in time series of floods using a fuzzy decision tree for event classification and applied it to maximal annual and seasonal floods in 27 alpine catchments for the period 1980–2014. Trends in flood types were studied with Sen’s slope and double mass curves. Our results reveal a decreasing number of rain-on-snow and an increasing number of short rainfall events in all catchments, with flash floods increasing in smaller catchments. Overall, the results demonstrate the value of incorporating a fuzzy flood-type classification into flood trend analyses.     

Analyzing multi-year rice-fallow dynamics in Odisha using multi-temporal Landsat-8 OLI and Sentinel-1 Data

ABSTRACT

Sustainable intensification of existing cropland is one of the most viable options for meeting the escalating food demands of the ever-increasing population in the world. Accurate geospatial data about the potential single-crop (rice-fallows) areas is vital for policymakers to target the agro-technologies for enhancing crop productivity and intensification. Therefore, the study aimed to evaluate and understand the dynamics of rice-fallows in the Odisha state of India, using SAR (Sentinel-1) and Optical (Landsat OLI) datasets. This study utilized a decision-tree approach and Principal component analysis (PCA) for the segmentation and separation of different vegetation classes. The estimated overall accuracy of extracted rice-fallow maps was in the range of 84 to 85 percent. The study identified about 2.2, 2.0 and 2.1mha of Rice-Fallows in the years 2015–16, 2016–17, and 2017–18, respectively. The combined analysis (all three years) of rice-fallow maps identified about 1.34mha of permanent rice-fallows, whereas the remaining 0.6–0.8mha area was under the current-fallow category. About 50% of the total permanent rice-fallows were detected in the rainfed areas of Mayurbhanj, Bhadrak, Bolangir, Sundargarh, Keonjhar, Baleswar, Nawarangpur and Bargarh districts. The study also illustrated the time-series profiles of SMAP (soil moisture) datasets for the ten agroclimatic zones of the Odisha, which can be utilized (along with rice-fallow maps) for the selection of crop and cultivars (e.g. short or medium duration pulses or oilseeds) to target the rice fallows. The approach utilized in the current study can be scaled up in similar areas of South and South-east Asia and Africa to identify single-crop areas for targeting improved technologies for enhanced crop productivity and intensification.     

Calculation of Uncertainty in the Variogram

There are often limited data available in early stages of geostatistical modeling. This leads to considerable uncertainty in statistical parameters including the variogram. This article presents an approach to calculate the uncertainty in the variogram. A methodology to transfer this uncertainty through geostatistical simulation and decision making is also presented.The experimental variogram value for a separation lag vector h is a mean of squared differences. The variance of a mean can be calculated with a model of the correlation between the pairs of data used in the calculation. The data here are squared differences; therefore, we need a measure of a 4-point correlation. A theoretical multi-Gaussian approach is presented for this uncertainty assessment together with a number of examples. The theoretical results are validated by numerical simulation. The simulation approach permits generalization to non-Gaussian situations.Multiple plausible variograms may be fit knowing the uncertainty at each variogram point, . Multiple geostatistical realizations may then be constructed and subjected to process assessment to measure the impact of this uncertainty.     

GIS技术应用于城市防震减灾工作

介绍了基于GIS技术的“上海市防震减灾应急决策信息系统”,该系统由7个功能模块组合,主要有：地震地质基本信息,地震灾害快速评估子系统,地震应急决策信息子系统,信息查询,系统维护管理等。介绍了彩红外航片遥感等软件应用技术,并提出此系统需改进之处。     

利用尾矿废石制造微晶玻璃花岗岩的投资可行性分析

在论述尾矿废石利用现状的基础上,对利用尾矿废石制造微晶玻璃花岗岩的投资可行性进行了分析,提供了一套可用于此类决策的分析方法。     

An interval-parameter multi-stage stochastic programming model for water resources management under uncertainty

In this study, an interval-parameter multi-stage stochastic linear programming (IMSLP) method has been developed for water resources decision making under uncertainty. The IMSLP is a hybrid methodology of inexact optimization and multi-stage stochastic programming. It has three major advantages in comparison to the other optimization techniques. Firstly, it extends upon the existing multi-stage stochastic programming method by allowing uncertainties expressed as probability density functions and discrete intervals to be effectively incorporated within the optimization framework. Secondly, penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. Thirdly, it cannot only handle uncertainties through constructing a set of scenarios that is representative for the universe of possible outcomes, but also reflect dynamic features of the system conditions through transactions at discrete points in time over the planning horizon. The developed IMSLP method is applied to a hypothetical case study of water resources management. The results are helpful for water resources managers in not only making decisions of water allocation but also gaining insight into the tradeoffs between environmental and economic objectives.     

空间决策支持技术在城市地震应急指挥软件系统中的应用

将空间决策支持技术SDSS引入城市地震应急指挥技术领域,利用决策支持技术DSS的多模型组合建模方法和地理信息系统的空间分析技术,建构了城市地震应急指挥空间辅助决策支持软件系统。详细讨论了该系统的整体规划与功能实现,并对系统数据库、模型库、方法库和知识库及其管理子系统的设计与开发作了详细阐述,以期为城市灾害与突发事件的防御与应急提供技术支持。     

油气勘探开发项目投资决策路径的设计

研究油气勘探开发项目投资决策路径的根本目的在于规避风险,以利润极大化为原则,兼顾社会目标,正确选择投资方向,合理安排投资规模,保证石油化工企业油气资源的持续安全供应和可持续发展,提高集团的竞争力.油气勘探开发项目具有明显的实物期权特性,传统的NPV方法已经不适应此类项目的评价与决策,本文结合中石化的实际,从企业目标和社会目标2个方面着手,提出了基于实物期权的油气勘探开发项目投资决策路径,从而丰富了项目投资决策的思路和方法.     

天津市堆山造景工程地基稳定监测与防治

堆山造景工程是一项利用建筑渣土,在坑塘上进行堆载的市政工程。通过对堆山造景工程的工程地质条件分析,结合工程设计、施工工期等条件,提出了清理淤泥、设置反压平台、排水、控制堆填速率等促进地基稳定的防治措施。利用孔隙水压力监测、侧向位移监测及分层沉降监测等原位监测数据,以复合型法进行反演力学计算参数,并将反演结果用于该工程地基稳定性的模拟,以指导后期工程以及类似工程的建设。     

测绘行业人力资源培训外包问题研究

系统培训是增加企业人力资本存量、提升企业核心竞争力重要的手段之一。因此,越来越多的企业将培训放到重要的位置上,整合组织的内外部资源进行有效的培训。将非核心培训项目外包,既利用外包供应商的专业水平和成本优势,又使企业人力资源部能专注于提升核心竞争力的活动。