标准农田规划空间决策支持模型的研究与实现

在中国工业化与城市化进程加速的背景下,部分地区耕地的质与量难以得到保障,因此迫切需要在平衡粮食安全与经济社会增长的基础上对其做出科学规划,而空间决策支持模型的建立有助于该规划的编制。基于对标准农田规划过程的分析,将模型的概念框架分解为以下三个步骤:①构建标准农田资源评价模型:利用群体层次分析法和土地适应性评价模型评估标准农田资源;②构建标准农田规划备选方案生成模型:采用0￣1整数规划模型生成若干标准农田规划备选方案;③构建标准农田最优规划方案决策模型,采用非确定型决策模型辅助评价选取最优规划方案。文章对概念模型的规范化过程进行详细探讨,最后以浙江省桐庐县石阜镇为实验区,对模型进行实现和初步验证。     

中国太阳能热发电站选址模型研究

太阳能热发电技术在我国新世纪能源战略中具有重要地位,太阳能热发电电站位置的合理选择对发电成本有直接影响,涉及到太阳能热发电技术本身、高时空分辨率的太阳能法直辐射分布、土地利用分布、水资源分布、社会经济分布,以及政策税收等众多因素。本文提出了一个太阳能热发电站选址的决策支持系统框架,就其中的太阳能直法辐射调查进行了初步试验。本文依据供需时空平衡原则进一步讨论了多种绿色能源互补的大能源系统运筹问题。     

Application of participatory principles to investigation of the natural world: An example from Chile

Participatory research in environmental and natural resources-related fields is premised on many of the same notions that underlie participatory processes in decision making. This study examines one instance of participatory research to assess the extent to which the documented benefits of participatory decision-making hold up in the context of research. A survey of Chilean shell-fishers engaged in research with marine biologists assesses the relationships between four variables: fishers’ participation in research, fishers’ opinions of biologists, fishers’ trust in biologists, and fishers’ acquisition of knowledge from biologists. Results illuminate the multidimensionality of these variables and suggest that complex interrelationships between them make the benefits of participatory research more nuanced than those reported for participatory decision-making. For instance, participatory research may provide low benefits when participatory research outcomes differ little from those produced solely by scientists. In addition, high-cost scenarios may result when outcomes of participatory research are inferior to those produced solely by scientists. A third downside may result when participation leads participants to increase their deference to scientific knowledge, thereby defeating the corroborative purpose of their participation. A fourth effect may occur when increased trust by in scientists results from participation, decreasing participants’ perceived need to take part in research.     

海洋交通风险应急决策系统设计与实现

针对海洋交通风险事故的特点,采用基于分层推理思想设计了海洋交通风险应急决策处理模型。在模型中提出了以行为和状态为核心的知识规则描述方法。以该模型为基础给出了系统的设计与实现。通过将海洋交通风险事故分解为事务级、情况级和执行级三级处理,使系统能综合应用海洋交通事务各种信息进行有效决策,提高了海洋交通事务风险控制能力。系统的实现对于促进海洋交通风险控制的智能化水平,深化海事管理信息化平台建设具有现实意义。     

Explicit integration of a porosity‐dependent hydro‐mechanical model for unsaturated soils

An adaptive substepping explicit integration scheme is developed for a porosity‐dependent hydro‐mechanical model for unsaturated soils. The model is referred to as the modified σ –Θ model in this paper, which features the employment of the subloading surface plasticity and the stress–saturation approach. On numerical aspects, convex/nonconvex subloading surfaces in the σ –Θ space may result in incorrect loading–unloading decisions during the integration. A new loading–unloading decision method is developed here to solve the problem and then embedded into the explicit integration scheme for the modified σ –Θ model. In addition, to enhance the accuracy of the explicit integration, local errors from both hydraulic and mechanical components are included in the error control for each substep. A drift correction method is also developed to ensure the state point lies on the subloading surface in the σ –Θ space within a set error level. The performance of the loading–unloading decision method for the modified σ –Θ model is discussed through comparing it with the conventional loading–unloading decision method. The importance of involving the hydraulic component in the error control is also demonstrated. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed adaptive substepping explicit integration scheme for the modified p–Θ model are also studied via several numerical examples. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

专题制图决策支持系统的设计

专题制图中有很多决策问题,如何建立一个专题制图决策支持系统是本文要讨论的问题。本文对下面的问题进行了讨论和介绍;专题制图决策支持系统的总体设计、子系统间的信息交换、地图表达手段、数据处理方法等。     

Utility Efficient Frontier: An Application in the Oil and Gas Industry

Current practice shows that the use of portfolio and utility theory is very low among petroleum companies. This article advocates the use of both portfolio theory and utility theory as decision-making tools to improve performance of oil and gas companies. We introduce a model that can be practically used and applied in the oil and gas industry. This model generates an optimized, efficient portfolio and, at the same time, enables the decision maker to incorporate his risk attitude and policy. This can only be done by combining both the portfolio theory and utility theory through an approach called the utility mean-variance model. A typical oil portfolio optimization problem is investigated by applying both portfolio and utility theories. Through the utility mean-variance model, an efficient frontier that captures decision maker risk attitude is achieved.     

3S技术在黑龙江省防汛指挥系统中的应用

文章简要介绍了黑龙江省防汛指挥系统建设的目标 ,论述了 3S技术是该系统应用的关键技术 ,以及展现了 3S技术在该系统应用的发展趋势。     

基于GIS的地热资源与环境管理信息系统的研制

如何实现地热资源的可持续开发与利用，保证资源与环境协同发展，已经成为一个亟待解决的问题。将GIS与地热工程分析相结合，借助信息技术，建立了地热资源与环境管理信息系统，这一系统的特点就是以长观数据与地热工程分析结果作为数据源，将信息化管理和科学决策结合在一起，实现集信息管理，资源评价与科学决策为一体的信息系统。     

复杂系统模糊模式识别动态规划模型研究

将模糊识别集合算子和非结构决策分析方法引入模糊动态规划中,推导出了两种求解复杂系统多目标多阶段决策问题的方法:级别特征值最小法和阶段模糊识别递推法。这两种方法具有不同的递推方程,可以应用于不同的情况,从而形成了模糊模式识别动态规划模型。此模型可以有效地获取和集成决策者的经验知识和偏好。此模型已应用到实践中,并取得良好效果。