Divergent Perspectives on Water Security: Bridging the Policy Debate

Environmental policy discussion is replete with references to water security, food security, ecosystem health, community resilience, sustainable development, and sustainable urbanism. These terms are, by their very nature, ambiguous and difficult to define; they allow room, however, for a variety of actors to conceptualize water, food, ecological, economic, and urban problems in ways that allow them to move forward on contentious issues. This article focuses on the idea of water security and asks how it is conceptualized and used for regional policy debate in western Canada. We asked fifty-eight water stakeholders from the Saskatchewan River Basin to define water security, identify major barriers to security, and prioritize water problems. Responses showed there are myriad ways to think about water security, ranging from narrow conceptualizations, such as reliability, quality, and quantity, to broader sustainability perspectives about the nature of resource development and its social and economic consequences. The human dimensions of water security (governance, land use, and competing demands) were assigned higher priority than its biophysical aspects (flooding, droughts, and climate change). Framing water security to emphasize the human capacity to manage uncertain and rapid biophysical and societal change offers the opportunity to unite actors who otherwise would be separated by core environmental values, definitions of water security, provincial context (Alberta vs. Saskatchewan), and occupation.     

不同经济水平牧户草场植被特征比较

以内蒙古荒漠草原家庭牧场为研究尺度,比较分析了不同经济水平牧户草场的植物群落特征,结果表明:主要植物种群的高度、盖度、密度、地上生物量、重要值及群落多样性指数均呈现出不同程度的趋同性.从社会学角度分析表明,牧区牧户的经济收入与饲养牲畜头数呈高度正相关.不同经济水平牧户草畜平衡的调整和适应能力不同,低经济水平牧户一般牲畜头数少,草场相对可使用面积大,经营意识薄弱,草场经常被有意或无意占用;中等经济水平牧户扩大饲养规模的愿望最为强烈,并积极通过围封、租借草场等方式来保护自家草场和扩大牲畜数量;高经济水平牧户则普遍采取常年租借草场、走场、购买饲草料等措施,减缓对自己草场放牧压力,同时保持畜饲养规模的维持和扩大.牧户存在调整适应行为,并会基于自己的“草畜平衡标准”,根据经济条件、草场面积、牲畜数量和对草场状况、放牧超载及效益的认知,适时通过草场流转和输入外部资源等方式,转移放牧压力,致使不同牧户草场生态状况趋于一致.     

3个时期骆马湖大型水生植物的分布及变化

大型水生植物对湖泊的生物地球化学循环具有重要影响.一方面,大型水生植物在生长过程吸收营养;另一方面,其通过向水体释放氧气而影响磷元素以及其他相关因子,进而影响磷元素的生物地球化学循环.为了从宏观上了解骆马湖生态系统变化,以1990年9月20日、2000年5月2日和2008年10月15日Landsat TM/ETM+影像为主要数据源,以大型水生植物的归一化植被指数(NDVI)为测试变量,运用分类回归树(classifica-tion and regression tree,CART)方法确定分割阈值,通过构建知识决策树的方法识别骆马湖大型水生植物动态变化特征.3个时期的遥感分类的总体精度与kappa系数分别为92.28％和0.87、91.73％和0.86、93.38％和0.88,因此,该方法的分类精度完全满足骆马湖水生植物分布及变化的研究.研究结果表明,骆马湖大型水生植物分布面积由1990年的55.461 6 km2,减少到2000年的41.801 4 km2,2008年又增加到79.065 km2;大型水生植物主要分布在骆马湖北部河湖交汇区;人类活动干扰是造成骆马湖大型水生植物分布面积发生变化的主要原因.     

Hydrological assessment of proposed reservoirs in the Sonora River Basin,Mexico, under historical and future climate scenarios

Abstract

A semi-distributed hydrological model and reservoir optimization algorithm are used to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on existing and proposed reservoirs in the Sonora River Basin, Mexico. Inter-annual climatic variability, a bimodal precipitation regime and climate change uncertainties present challenges to water resource management in the region. Hydrological assessments are conducted for three meteorological products during a historical period and a future climate change scenario. Historical (1990–2000) and future (2031–2040) projections were derived from a mesoscale model forced with boundary conditions from a general circulation model under a high emissions scenario. The results reveal significantly higher precipitation, reservoir inflows, elevations and releases in the future relative to historical simulations. Furthermore, hydrological seasonality might be altered with a shift toward earlier water supply during the North American monsoon. The proposed infrastructure would have a limited ability to ameliorate future conditions, with more benefits in a tributary with lower flood hazard. These projections of the impacts of climate change and its interaction with infrastructure should be of interest to water resources managers in arid and semi-arid regions.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

基于MODIS影像多特征的CART决策树分类

以山东省为研究区域,利用2009年9月MODIS的8 d合成波段反射率产品MOD09,选择特征变量植被指数(NDVI、EVI)、NDWI、NDMI、NDSI及辅助信息DEM,通过选取其中的影像特征组合来确定分类方案,构建各波段组合的CART决策树,对MODIS影像进行分类,得到CART决策树的最优波段组合。结果表明,特征变量DEM、NDVI、EVI对分类结果贡献较大;将CART决策树的分类结果与其相对应的最大似然分类结果进行比较可知,基于影像多特征的CART决策树分类方法能明显提高分类精度。     

A SIMPLE SOIL MOISTURE INDEX TO FORECAST CROP YIELDS

Neutron probe soil moisture measurements obtained biweekly during the growing season between 1982 and 1991 from multiple depths under grass-covered plots at 17 Illinois Climate Network sites are used to forecast crop yields. A Soil Moisture Index (SMIX) that combines the effect of intensity, duration, and timing of drought or excessively wet conditions was computed by integrating the quantity of available soil moisture throughout the rooting zone over the growing season. Relationships between the SMIX values and crop yields are evaluated at county, regional, and statewide scales. Coefficients of determination (r ²) for relationships between the SMIX values and maize, soybeans, and hay yields at the statewide level are 0.88, 0.74, and 0.81, respectively, when the period of integration is terminated at the end of the growing season. This new soil index can be employed to forecast yields as early as 12 weeks before harvest for the state of Illinois. However, predictions with RMSE ≤ 10% of the mean yield can be achieved only for SMIX integration periods ending 5, 9, and 6 weeks before harvest for maize, soybeans, and hay, respectively. Nomograms are presented for using the relationships between the SMIX values and crop yields to forecast Illinois's major crops well before harvest.     

Spatial decision support applications based on three-dimensional city models

The basic mathematic models, such as the statistic model, the time-serial model, the spatial dynamic model etc., and some typical analysis methods based on 3DCM are proposed and discussed. A few typical spatial decision making methods integrating the spatial analysis and the basic mathematical models are also introduced, e.g. visual impact assessment, dispersion of noise immissions, base station plan for wireless communication. In addition, a new idea of expectation of further applications and add-in-value service of 3DCM is promoted. As an example, the sunshine analysis is studied and some helpful conclusions are drawn.     

Relationship between Soil＇s Seasonal Freezing Process and Daily Accumulative Hourly Temperature in Northern Xinjiang Region

传统的度日因子模型很难分辨在结冻期土壤每日结冻和解冻的过程,而日小时积温可以区分正积温和负积温对土壤冻结过程的影响.利用北疆地区1951-2010年气象站数据和决策树算法,分析计算日小时积温及表层5cm和10cm土壤冻结状态数据及日小时积温对季节性冻土冻结现象的影响.结果表明：在北疆范围年小时正积温以每年平均160℃增长,而年小时负积温以每年平均153℃减少.季节性冻土发生冻结现象所需的临界值分布与北疆地区气候和土壤分布基本一致,但仍存在空间差异性.北疆地区5cm土壤结冻所需的日小时负积温为-50℃以下,而5cm到10cm土壤结冻所需日小时负积温的平均值差值为-15℃左右.与日最低气温和日平均气温作为土壤结冻判据相比,日小时积温临界值作为判据可获得较高的精确度.在昌吉地区和阿勒泰地区冻土的平均深度随着日小时负积温临界值的增加而减少.     

多维决策圈闭评价方法及其应用

多维决策就是在具有相互冲突、相互影响的多个因素下对评价目标进行的决策,把它应用到圈闭评价时,就是把影响圈闭评价的各个因素看成一个整体,这些影响因素共同反映圈闭的优劣,将多个因素系统合成为一个能从总体上度量圈闭优劣的单因子来进行评价优选。在使用多维决策对研究区进行实际的圈闭评价时,通过多维目标函数,求解各圈闭与所假设的最优和最劣圈闭之间的距离,最后得到综合评价因子序列,此时选出距最优圈闭较近而距最劣圈闭较远的圈闭可作为优先勘探的对象。对四川盆地某区进行了圈闭评价实践,并与地质风险概率法作了对比,证明多维决策圈闭评价方法是有效的。此方法具有简单、实用、易操作、分辨率高等优点,人为因素的干预比较少,预测结果更为客观。     

基于SuperMap林业地理信息平台的设计与实现

为了满足当前基层林场生产任务和业务管理的实际需求,本文针对其生产中面临着的一些问题,组件式GIS-SuperMa PObjects和林业领域模型库为基础,建立林业地理信息系统平台(Superma PForest Star)的思想,实现森林资源的信息化管理.林业地理信息系统平台包括森林资源数据管理功能模块、造林决策支持模...